Maryland early voting is up 55 percent over 2014 turnout.

Marylanders have cast early primary votes at a record clip so far this year. Three times as many Democrats as Republicans have turned out.

Democrats see the increase as a sign of blue wave of opposition to President Donald Trump that they hope will defeat Gov. Larry Hogan and sweep the country in November.

“Democrats are energized and they’re ready to send a message,” said Fabion Seaton, a spokesman for the Maryland Democratic Party.

But analysts warn that predictions based on early voting patterns are fraught with risk. After all, if early voting reliably predicted final results, Anthony G. Brown would be governor, and Hillary Clinton would be president.

“It turned out early voting didn’t predict anything,” said Todd Eberly, a political scientist at St. Mary’s College.

Nevertheless, the numbers are striking. Through Wednesday, after seven days of early voting, turnout was up 55 percent over the last gubernatorial primary election in 2014 — 6 percent of registered Democrats and 4 percent of registered Republicans had gone to the polls.

Eberly said he doesn’t see signs of unusual enthusiasm in the numbers.

Early voting was pushed by Maryland Democrats and resisted by Republicans, who have been slow to embrace the practice. And three of Maryland’s larger jurisdictions, Baltimore and Montgomery and Prince George’s counties, are dominated by Democrats; races for local offices or the General Assembly are almost always decided by the primary.

This year brings a different dynamic than 2014. Gov. Martin O’Malley was leaving office, and both parties held competitive primaries for the open seat. Hogan faces no opposition this year.

This year, some early voters have said down-ballot races in Baltimore and Baltimore, Montgomery and Prince George’s counties are more compelling than the governor’s race.


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