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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsOur Revolution-Backed Candidates Score Wins, But in Longshot Races
In the wake of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortezs surprising Democratic Primary win in New Yorks 14th congressional district, much of the talk this political week has centered on the rising power of the partys liberal wing. But a look at the House primary results from the first half of 2018, shows a more complicated picture.
The group Our Revolution, a progressive political organization that rose out of Sen. Bernie Sanders presidential campaign, has endorsed candidates in 33 of the House Democratic primaries held so far this year. And overall, their candidates have won in 14 of those races, including this weeks big victory in NY-14.
That works out to winning 42 percent of their races held thus far. And while anyone would rather be above .500 than below it, winning 42 percent of the time isnt bad for a nascent political group.
Thats the good news for the Bernie wing of the Democratic Party. The not-as-good news is where those victories have come.
Only one of those 14 congressional primary wins has come in a district that is currently labeled as a battleground, by the Cook Political Report New Yorks 24th district, which is currently rated likely Republican.
Of the other 13 wins, 10 have come in districts that are rated as safe Republican seats, meaning those Democratic nominees arent likely to make it to Congress. And three wins have come in seats that are rated as safe Democratic seats. Of those three safe Democratic wins, one candidate was an incumbent and one was vying for a seat where the incumbent was retiring. So, Ocasio-Cortezs win is the groups only victory over an establishment incumbent.
In other words, Our Revolution seems to be doing best in primary races where its harder to field good Democratic candidates and races where the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is less interested in pushing establishment candidates. (The DCCC cares much more about battleground districts than it does about districts where they are more confident the Democrat will win or lose.)
What about those other 19 primaries, where the establishment Democrat won? There are a lot more congressional battlegrounds in that group, 11 in total, including 5 true tossups.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/bernie-sanders-backed-nominees-score-wins-longshot-races-n888071
Scurrilous
(38,687 posts)K&R
riversedge
(70,299 posts)Perhaps these two 'wings' can, together,*** bring home a victory in the House in November. Maybe.
........
............................These 19 are the kinds of districts that will likely determine whether the Democrats have a chance to flip the House in November and take control in 2019. And so far, the Democratic establishment is riding high in these locales, getting the more moderate candidates the DCCC believes it needs to win in the fall in districts such as Colorado 6, where the establishment choice won on Tuesday.
Through June, that may be the biggest takeaway from the primary elections so far.
Its not that the so-called Bernie wing of the party is failing in 2018. A win is a win and, to be sure, this weeks win by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was a big one. Her victory and others from the more liberal side of the party may help fire up that party of Democrats this year and in elections to come.
But the stories this week about the surprising power of the left side of the party may have overstated the case a bit.
Going by the numbers, its the establishment wing of the Democratic Party that is having a good 2018. And, more important, its having a good year in the places that matter most this November.
Cha
(297,655 posts)Our Established Dems out there working hard on the Front Lines?
Cha
(297,655 posts)elections, RFS.
I'm going to be watching Stephanie Murphy's race in District 7 Florida and Robin Lynne Kelly in Illinois' 2nd District.
Best of Luck to these "Established" Dems..
"What about those other 19 primaries, where the establishment Democrat won? There are a lot more congressional battlegrounds in that group, 11 in total, including 5 true tossups."
snip// from your link..
But the stories this week about the surprising power of the left side of the party may have overstated the case a bit.
Going by the numbers, its the establishment wing of the Democratic Party that is having a good 2018. And, more important, its having a good year in the places that matter most this November.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/bernie-sanders-backed-nominees-score-wins-longshot-races-n888071
Good ol' Established Dems
murielm99
(30,761 posts)since Bernie and OR have tainted the word "establishment" into meaninglessness.
Progressive has become a meaningless word, too. It seems to mean whatever the speaker or writer wants it to mean. It has become a purity test rather than a defined concept.
Cha
(297,655 posts)Those labels are meaningless to me, too.
I know who I like no matter how much the media has labeled candidates ad nauseam. I respect those who have honor and don't try to puff themselves up at the expense of others.
"..purity test rather than a defined concept.." Yes. But, I still use it as a defined concept. as in President Obama and Hillary both got things done in spite of all their opposition, because they plugged away. They are progressive.. still out of office.. Still progressing.
Matthew28
(1,798 posts)UCmeNdc
(9,600 posts)If "Our Revolution" candidates are challenging a Republican in a long shot race let's help them beat that Republican.
murielm99
(30,761 posts)I am sick and tired of them expressing a desire to get rid of established Democrats by primarying them. We have enough to do. I am automatically turned off by anyone who wants to primary and weaken incumbent Democrats.
OR has earned nothing but suspicion from me. If I have to support an OR candidate, I will. But they need to turn their opposition on the republicans, where it belongs.
Response to RandySF (Original post)
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