2018 midterm battleground is not what was expected

By Nate Cohn NEW YORK TIMES JULY 30, 2018

NEW YORK — The battleground in the fight for control of the House is starting to come into focus with 99 days to go until the November election. It is not exactly the battleground that analysts expected.

It’s not dominated by well-educated, suburban districts that voted for Hillary Clinton. Instead, the areas where Democrats have a chance to win include many working-class and rural districts that voted for Donald Trump in 2016.

The broader battleground is a positive development for Democrats. It’s a reflection of how much the Republican structural advantage in the House has eroded over the last year. What remains of it isn’t helping the Republicans as much as analysts assumed it would, at least not yet.

The broader battleground has also opened up a gap between two common ways of thinking about the midterms.

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