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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsOH-12: New poll O'Connor 47% - Balderson 46%
The final US Congressional special election before the November midterm elections will be held on August 7 in Ohios 12th district and it shows a neck and neck race: the Democrat, Franklin County Recorder Danny OConnor has 47% of the vote and Republican, State Senator Troy Balderson is at 46%, 7% of very likely voters were undecided. The data was collected August 2 to 4, with +/-5 percentage points. The poll was taken prior to President Trump's rally in the district on August 4.
Both Congressional candidates are polarizing figures OConnor has a 44% favorable and 41% unfavorable, while Balderson has a 46% favorable and 45% unfavorable opinion. President Trump is more popular in the district than he is nationwide with a 47% approval and 48% disapproval. Better news for Balderson, is that Pelosi is severely disliked with 56% disapproval and a 22% approval rating.
Independents are breaking 56% to 28% for OConnor, and the Clinton voter seem more loyal to their party candidates in this election that those who voted for Trump. Clinton voters are breaking for OConnor 95% to 3%, while Trump voters are breaking for Balderson 89% to 7%.
A gender divide has emerged as well in the race. Males back Balderson 53%-42%, while females break for OConnor 51%-40%.
Delaware County might turn out to be difference as voters are split 46% to 45% for OConnor, an estimated 28% of the total vote will come from that county. Both candidates also have strong bases of support OConnors is Franklin County where he leads 58%-33%, which is estimated to account for 32% of the primary vote. Licking County, expected to account for 21% of the total vote, is breaking for Balderson 62%-36%.
The Trump Tax reform law passed in December of 2017 received mixed reviews in the poll. 45% support the tax reform law, 41% are opposed, and 11% are undecided. Inside these numbers finds those in support of the tax reform law break for Republican Balderson 91%-3%, while those opposed support OConnor 92%-3%. Undecided voters lean to the Democrat OConnor 61%-17%.
O'Connor voters are slightly more excited and paying slightly more attention to the race than Balderson voters. Among those most excited, OConnor has a 55%-45% edge. Among those paying more attention OConnor gets 51% to 46%.of their support.
https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-oh12-8.5.18.pdf
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)Go O'Connor!
PearliePoo2
(7,768 posts)The Independents are breaking for the Democrat!! Huge!
Man, I'm going to be on the edge of my seat following this election tomorrow night!