https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

Place cursor over any district and a pop up box shows the current projection.

Pureval vs Pure Evil (Chabot)

I hope voters are intelligent enough to see the difference.

Used to be part of OH-01 until they gerrymandered it into kind of a bar-bell district. What's interesting about OH-01, IMHO, is that the guys cutting up the map looked at voting records but they didn't really understand the cultural dynamics of the district they were creating.

OH-01 has what I'll call two distinct parts connected by a narrow band of nothing.

One part is the West side of Cincinnati. Usually identified as conservative (see Chabot's long tenure) but really, it's defining characteristic is being insular. The only way to effectively life on the west side is to be 3rd generation west sider. When people as "where ya from?" they mean what parish. Cliques are defined among guys in their 50-60-70's by what high school they went to. BTW, it could be more white but I'm not sure how. A few pockets of diversity but, let's just say folks one the west side know how to keep their real estate "in the right hands".

The only crack in Chabot's reign out there was when Steve Driehaus took the seat for a couple years. Driehaus is a dem but he got elected because his family is more deeply rooted in the west side than Chabot.

What's changed is the other part of the district - Mason. High growth. Great schools. Lots (and lots) of corporate transfers in/out. Very diverse.

Aftab is one of "them". FGreat presence and great communicator. The roughest thing Chabot's been able to bring is comments about Aftab being a carpetbagger. The reference is to the fact that Aftab's then g'fiend now wife was at UC med school and they lived in an apartment down near campus - about a mile outside the weird street by street lines of OH-01.

But what Chabot is really trying to say when he says "he's not even from our district" is "look at him - he's not one of us". Interestingly, he was born just north of Cincinnati in a community much more like Mason than the West Side.

Aftab's pitch to the folks up in Mason - aren't you tired of having some old west side guy who doesn't even come our here to talk to you guys (ever)...aren't you tired of him represent the old west side vs. the new Mason ???

And it's working. Lots of energy for him up in Mason and the Dems on the west side (what few there are) are starting to step up.

good to see the tide starting to shift.

Chabot is such a dick.

Too bad I'm stuck with Wenstrup - we'll have to pry him out with a crowbar and some dynamite. Love to see a $$$ scandal land on his desk sooner vs. later. Not sure we'd get a dem but at least it wouldn't be asshat.

If Pureval can win there, the Blue Wave is significant.

I'm stuck up here in Columbus trying to crowbar Steve Stivers out of yet another heavily gerrymandered district. Maybe people will finally start to turn on him now that he's admitted that he wants to cut Social Security and Medicare.