Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search
 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
Fri Aug 24, 2018, 06:07 PM Aug 2018

NH Primary Source: Poll shows Bernie Sanders early 2020 Democratic first-in-nation primary favorite

STILL SANDERS COUNTRY? Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders remains the favorite potential 2020 presidential candidate among Granite Stater Democratic voters, while President Trump receives the support of just more than half of Republicans in a new poll

The University of New Hampshire Survey Center polled 501 randomly selected New Hampshire adults – including 198 likely 2020 Democratic presidential primary voters and 199 likely Republican primary voters – Aug. 2 to Aug. 19. The margins of error are 7 percent for the Democratic poll and 6.9 percent for the Republican poll.

When asked an open-ended question of who they intend to vote for in the 2020 primary, 65 percent of likely Democratic voters said they were undecided, while 12 percent chose Sanders, 6 percent chose former Vice President Joe Biden and 6 percent chose Massachusetts U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren.

The survey center then provided a list of Democrats viewed at this early stage as likely candidates for the 2020 nomination.

Sanders was chosen by 30 percent, while 19 percent chose Biden and 17 percent chose Warren. U.S. Rep. Joseph Kennedy III of Massachusetts was named by 7 percent, New Jersey U.S. Sen. Cory Booker received 6 percent, California U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris received 3 percent former Attorney General Eric Holder was picked by 2 percent and former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley received 1 percent. Twelve percent of those polled were undecided.

https://www.wmur.com/article/nh-primary-source-poll-shows-bernie-sanders-early-2020-democratic-first-in-nation-primary-favorite/22816653
132 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
NH Primary Source: Poll shows Bernie Sanders early 2020 Democratic first-in-nation primary favorite (Original Post) oberliner Aug 2018 OP
Oh, Oberliner, give it up. Hortensis Aug 2018 #1
Give what up? oberliner Aug 2018 #3
Okay. But I'm serious about wondering what's next Hortensis Aug 2018 #18
It will be interesting to see if a new face emerges oberliner Aug 2018 #20
I think the poster is talking about someone among the OR groups to replace... brush Aug 2018 #114
And..........trash................and.....................block trixie2 Aug 2018 #64
It's just a poll from NH oberliner Aug 2018 #115
Gotta pay the rent somehow. Squinch Aug 2018 #11
i second the statement. give it up. Bernie is not a democrat. trueblue2007 Aug 2018 #60
He won the primary there by 22% SteveMO Aug 2018 #2
Vermin Supreme got .1 percent oberliner Aug 2018 #4
Third whitest state in the nation shows preference for candidate... OilemFirchen Aug 2018 #8
Thank you! NH has 1.3 million people. Vermont has 600,000. R B Garr Aug 2018 #10
California, which is vastly larger and not very white at all, would be a better barometer. I think. Hekate Aug 2018 #57
No poll regarding 2020, regardless of state, would mean a thing at this point. Garrett78 Aug 2018 #66
Yep Hekate Aug 2018 #67
Great post. Thank you. R B Garr Aug 2018 #74
This message was self-deleted by its author miss-nasty Aug 2018 #5
well no one asked me! samnsara Aug 2018 #6
Who would you have said? oberliner Aug 2018 #7
Oh look. A ridiculous thread whose purpose is to divide. Shocked, I tell you. Squinch Aug 2018 #9
It's a recent poll from NH about the Democratic primary oberliner Aug 2018 #12
Gosh, you're so smart no one will ever see what you're doing! Squinch Aug 2018 #13
Presenting factual information for DUers to consider and evaluate oberliner Aug 2018 #14
Sure you have. Squinch Aug 2018 #19
I appreciate that oberliner Aug 2018 #21
Some of us are in it together. But there are some who are only here Squinch Aug 2018 #23
Those folks were booted long ago, thankfully oberliner Aug 2018 #24
are you here to sow division? just asking? juxtaposed Aug 2018 #36
Not sure why you would say that? We are only facing an extremely critical midterm to try and halt still_one Aug 2018 #54
No, I'm here to support Democrats. As my posting record showed. Squinch Aug 2018 #85
Pecker jokes are more intellectually stimulating... OilemFirchen Aug 2018 #25
Fair enough oberliner Aug 2018 #29
I wish the Bernie haters would stow it. Just Carl Aug 2018 #33
I am a fan of both Hillary and Bernie oberliner Aug 2018 #35
The DNC has already made it clear that they will not be supporting a NON democratic candidate Thekaspervote Aug 2018 #41
He followed the rules. He ran for the Democratic Party nomination in Vermont Just Carl Aug 2018 #44
No. Bernie is not going to get another bite out of the Democratic apple. He's not a Dem... Hekate Aug 2018 #59
Speaking of stowing it, could you describe what a "Bernie hater" is? R B Garr Aug 2018 #46
Someone who posts or react negatively about Bernie, no matter what. Just Carl Aug 2018 #50
Ah, this sounds very familiar but unfortunately is contrary to R B Garr Aug 2018 #51
If somebody's reflexive reaction to the thread was to accuse the OP of being paid to post mythology Aug 2018 #65
Actually, irrational would be insisting that all political R B Garr Aug 2018 #73
Message auto-removed Name removed Aug 2018 #97
Yes, that was obvious with your 20-something posts, R B Garr Aug 2018 #112
Message auto-removed Name removed Aug 2018 #117
He has stated he wants to be an Independent, so no use spamming R B Garr Aug 2018 #122
No. It means they have noticed something you might not have. Squinch Aug 2018 #83
As a very new person you probably don't want to tell us we have "extreme hatred" for your hero Hekate Aug 2018 #58
Not everyone on this site hates Bernie Sanders. David__77 Aug 2018 #71
It's not really hate, it just we've been there and done that with the divisiveness. brush Aug 2018 #118
Could you please post this blue cat Aug 2018 #126
It's a Democratic primary poll oberliner Aug 2018 #128
is there a separate primary for "democratic socialists" too? nt msongs Aug 2018 #15
He ran as a Democrat and won the Democratic primary there last time around oberliner Aug 2018 #17
We are so past the 2016 primary sheshe2 Aug 2018 #37
Which 2018 primary are you most interested in? oberliner Aug 2018 #38
All of them. sheshe2 Aug 2018 #39
Thank you - that is very helpful oberliner Aug 2018 #40
We know that Sanders wants more money and a marketing machine than ehrnst Aug 2018 #103
Not surprised. shanny Aug 2018 #16
Interesting to note that 2 years out of last NH primary, no one knew who Bernie was oberliner Aug 2018 #22
Ok I have to admit this is pretty funny ismnotwasm Aug 2018 #26
What's the funny part? oberliner Aug 2018 #34
If Bernie successfully gets through the primaries, I will be more than happy to vote for him Just Carl Aug 2018 #27
Again check out what the dnc said early this spring about supporting non democratic candidates. Thekaspervote Aug 2018 #42
"See my signature." Okay: it's hostile and vulgar. Now what? Hekate Aug 2018 #62
Good for Bernie. Wish him luck! He has a good heart which is hard to find these days. juxtaposed Aug 2018 #28
Well said oberliner Aug 2018 #32
No he is not katmondoo Aug 2018 #30
The poll is included in the article oberliner Aug 2018 #31
No surprise with him being the most beloved active politician on the planet. Hassin Bin Sober Aug 2018 #43
? TexasTowelie Aug 2018 #56
If he wasn't favored to win NH, that would be news. Garrett78 Aug 2018 #45
What about Warren? oberliner Aug 2018 #82
Obviously any New Englander, such as Warren or Murphy, would expect to do well in NH. Garrett78 Aug 2018 #88
Or Joe Kennedy III oberliner Aug 2018 #100
Bernie Sanders: politics' OS/2 LuvLoogie Aug 2018 #47
What's good for the goose is good for the gander. DemocratSinceBirth Aug 2018 #48
Name recognition definitely goes a long way oberliner Aug 2018 #81
Not really. It was a 2-person race in 2016, and he capitalized on... Garrett78 Aug 2018 #90
Why didn't it become a 2-person race with O'Malley? oberliner Aug 2018 #92
O'Malley wasn't perceived to be the Clinton alternative. Garrett78 Aug 2018 #93
My assertion is that Bernie Sanders ran an impressive campaign oberliner Aug 2018 #94
That's fine, but him becoming a household name isn't too amazing to me. Garrett78 Aug 2018 #95
I used the word "impressive" not "amazing" oberliner Aug 2018 #99
Trump is still going down. Kingofalldems Aug 2018 #49
Do you think he survives to run in 2020? oberliner Aug 2018 #80
Since he isn't a Democrat, it is going to be difficult for him to get the Democrratic nomination, still_one Aug 2018 #52
+1 Hekate Aug 2018 #63
It's just a poll - nothing divisive about it oberliner Aug 2018 #79
Right???????? still_one Aug 2018 #84
Not in a million years. PubliusEnigma Aug 2018 #53
In New Hampshire. Which has how many voters? Hekate Aug 2018 #55
Iowa and NH don't have a lot of voters, but they've been first so they have tended to be significant oberliner Aug 2018 #77
Thanks for the poll info oberliner Glamrock Aug 2018 #61
You got it oberliner Aug 2018 #76
Agreed Glamrock Aug 2018 #78
But...but...but... QC Aug 2018 #68
That's funny! David__77 Aug 2018 #69
. Hassin Bin Sober Aug 2018 #72
Thank you for posting this information! David__77 Aug 2018 #70
You're welcome oberliner Aug 2018 #75
Oh, Bernie, Bernie, Bernie! So dreamy! NurseJackie Aug 2018 #86
Why was Bernie listed as a Democrat on the poll? Generic Brad Aug 2018 #87
He'll just do what he did last time and what he did before his recent primary. Garrett78 Aug 2018 #89
Don't look now but he's a duly appointed member of the Senate Democratic Leadership Hassin Bin Sober Aug 2018 #91
OMG!!! Chuck Schumer is a BernieBro! QC Aug 2018 #102
. Hassin Bin Sober Aug 2018 #130
It's name recognition. That's why Biden is 2nd. Big deal. n/t pnwmom Aug 2018 #96
Joseph Kennedy III has pretty high name recognition in NH oberliner Aug 2018 #98
Joe Kennedy is only 37. I doubt too many people are thinking of him in those terms. pnwmom Aug 2018 #105
Elizabeth Warren is the left's early favorite for 2020 oberliner Aug 2018 #106
A few days ago. "I am not running for President in 2020." pnwmom Aug 2018 #109
"Warren is largely seen as considering a run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020" oberliner Aug 2018 #111
I doubt that she'll end up running, and I don't think there's any evidence pnwmom Aug 2018 #127
Is there a particular candidate you are especially interested in at this point? oberliner Aug 2018 #129
Edwards was the favorite and Obama was barely the radar at this point in the 2008 campaign. ehrnst Aug 2018 #101
Wasn't Hillary the favorite at this point in the 2008 campaign? oberliner Aug 2018 #104
No, that was later. Edwards was ahead in 2006. ehrnst Aug 2018 #107
That's a poll of just Iowa voters oberliner Aug 2018 #110
Not seeing poll numbers in this article, just an opinion of the journalist ehrnst Aug 2018 #113
Biden a close second. Seems like name recognition at this point. (nt) ehrnst Aug 2018 #108
That definitely appears to be a factor oberliner Aug 2018 #120
Those RW think tanks always pounce on news like this. Kingofalldems Aug 2018 #116
You seem to know a lot about RW think tanks oberliner Aug 2018 #119
It is if they plan on dividing Democrats. Kingofalldems Aug 2018 #121
Every Democrat should support the primary candidate of their choice oberliner Aug 2018 #125
Not. A. Democrat. we can do it Aug 2018 #123
And yet a fairly significant number of Democrats seem to want to vote for him oberliner Aug 2018 #124
Sen. Elizabeth Warren was my first choice again Omaha Steve Aug 2018 #131
She could change her mind oberliner Aug 2018 #132

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
1. Oh, Oberliner, give it up.
Fri Aug 24, 2018, 06:09 PM
Aug 2018

Seriously. All the OR splinter groups have moved on and don't even mention him on their web sites. Have any come up with a possibly viable (for them) candidate yet? That's what I'd like to hear from someone who's paying attention.

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
18. Okay. But I'm serious about wondering what's next
Fri Aug 24, 2018, 06:30 PM
Aug 2018

for cap-P Progressive/social democrats if you happen to come across some excitement. I have looked at what those new groups have been saying in the past year.

Sanders spoiled his brand with some and failed to come through for all. His role right now seems to be as place holder until leadership shifts to one or more vying to be what comes next. Of course, if no one else showed up to elbow him aside, he'd be it again, or still, if he chose to run.

 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
20. It will be interesting to see if a new face emerges
Fri Aug 24, 2018, 06:33 PM
Aug 2018

Or if someone who we've already been talking about gains some momentum. My thought is that Kamala Harris could be that person.

brush

(53,778 posts)
114. I think the poster is talking about someone among the OR groups to replace...
Sat Aug 25, 2018, 07:31 PM
Aug 2018

Sanders, the placeholder, as their candidate, not someone to emerge as the Democratic Party candidate—two different things.

OilemFirchen

(7,143 posts)
8. Third whitest state in the nation shows preference for candidate...
Fri Aug 24, 2018, 06:16 PM
Aug 2018

from whitest state in the nation.

L'Chaim!

R B Garr

(16,954 posts)
10. Thank you! NH has 1.3 million people. Vermont has 600,000.
Fri Aug 24, 2018, 06:19 PM
Aug 2018

This isn't saying much at all. The base is not comprised of 2 million people in the smallest whitest states.

Hekate

(90,690 posts)
57. California, which is vastly larger and not very white at all, would be a better barometer. I think.
Fri Aug 24, 2018, 10:53 PM
Aug 2018

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
66. No poll regarding 2020, regardless of state, would mean a thing at this point.
Fri Aug 24, 2018, 11:40 PM
Aug 2018

Of course Sanders is the favorite in New Hampshire. Him *not* being favored to win NH (and IA and many other states) is what would constitute news.

There were only 2 candidates in 2016 after Iowa (when O'Malley dropped out). Only 1 of them is expected to run in 2020. Needless to say, that individual is going to do well in polls a year and a half before the 2020 primary season begins (and before any serious contender has announced his or her intention to run). Most people aren't political junkies and name recognition dominates right now.

I find it hard to believe that anyone honestly thinks Sanders will be the nominee, but I shouldn't be surprised given how many people were insisting he was going to be the nominee in 2016 well after it was clear that Clinton had it wrapped up (by the 2nd week of March). There's basically no chance that Sanders will be the nominee.

This does, though, provide me yet another opportunity to comment on how much I hate that Iowa and New Hampshire kick things off. Traditions have a lot of staying power, but neither state is even remotely representative of our electorate.

Response to oberliner (Original post)

 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
12. It's a recent poll from NH about the Democratic primary
Fri Aug 24, 2018, 06:19 PM
Aug 2018

Not an op-ed or an opinion piece. Just poll data.

 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
14. Presenting factual information for DUers to consider and evaluate
Fri Aug 24, 2018, 06:22 PM
Aug 2018

I know "Pecker" jokes are more popular right now, but some folks are actually interested in having real conversations about upcoming elections and primaries.

Edit to add: Very proud to say I have helped elevate the dialogue here and initiated thoughtful discussion and analysis on a variety of relevant topics.

 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
21. I appreciate that
Fri Aug 24, 2018, 06:35 PM
Aug 2018

Glad to have inspired such a joyful emoji.

On a serious note, we're all in this together. The key is to defeat Republicans in the midterms and in the general. Whether it's Bernie or Biden or Harris or any of the other great options out there - we will eventually all rally behind them, hopefully to victory.

 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
24. Those folks were booted long ago, thankfully
Fri Aug 24, 2018, 06:51 PM
Aug 2018

I haven't come across any since the primary - where things did get really ugly.

still_one

(92,190 posts)
54. Not sure why you would say that? We are only facing an extremely critical midterm to try and halt
Fri Aug 24, 2018, 10:45 PM
Aug 2018

the damage being done to our country, and some believe in their great wisdom this would be the best time to divide Democrats at a time when we need unity more than ever.

Gee, I thought we had to get through the midterms first, but I guess a poll of Democrats, when NO DEMOCRAT HAS OFFICIALLY SAID THEY ARE RUNNING, and one person refuses to even identiry as a Democrat somehow means this poll means something.


Squinch

(50,949 posts)
85. No, I'm here to support Democrats. As my posting record showed.
Sat Aug 25, 2018, 09:49 AM
Aug 2018

The same can't be said of others in this thread.

OilemFirchen

(7,143 posts)
25. Pecker jokes are more intellectually stimulating...
Fri Aug 24, 2018, 06:52 PM
Aug 2018

than a statistically useless (7% MOE!) minor poll from a tiny state - in itself statistically irrelevant (95.0% white!) - two + years prior to an election.


Speaking of elevating dialogue, just notice how many punctuation marks I included in my response.

Impressive, huh?

 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
29. Fair enough
Fri Aug 24, 2018, 06:54 PM
Aug 2018

Personally, I find the polls more interesting than the jokes. Maybe a few other folks do as well (maybe not).

I count twelve punctuation marks - did I miss any?

 

Just Carl

(26 posts)
33. I wish the Bernie haters would stow it.
Fri Aug 24, 2018, 06:57 PM
Aug 2018

If the people of the United States wants Bernie Sanders to lead the country, on a Democratic ticket, then what's the harm to the Democratic Party?

I ask, as a Bernie voter and a Clinton voter. I don't understand the extreme hate on Bernie Sanders.

Thekaspervote

(32,767 posts)
41. The DNC has already made it clear that they will not be supporting a NON democratic candidate
Fri Aug 24, 2018, 07:14 PM
Aug 2018

To run in 2020.... bernie is an independent. This is not bernie hating!! Just like Hillary she had her chance, it’s gone. Again.. bernie is not going to be the dem candidate for 2020. I do think IMHO and hope as many others do that bernie will not run in 2020. He will not win as an independent and it will hand us another 4, possibly more years of a broken repuke administration. Please please consider how this could possibly play out.

 

Just Carl

(26 posts)
44. He followed the rules. He ran for the Democratic Party nomination in Vermont
Fri Aug 24, 2018, 08:40 PM
Aug 2018

then declined the nomination, when he won.

Therefore, he is eligible for the 2020 Democratic primaries.

Hekate

(90,690 posts)
59. No. Bernie is not going to get another bite out of the Democratic apple. He's not a Dem...
Fri Aug 24, 2018, 11:09 PM
Aug 2018

...no matter how many games he plays in his teeny tiny home state.

R B Garr

(16,954 posts)
46. Speaking of stowing it, could you describe what a "Bernie hater" is?
Fri Aug 24, 2018, 09:25 PM
Aug 2018

You are new here and maybe you have a different description from another website or something since you don't mind using it here so soon without being familiar with the site. I know Twitter is very active nowadays. Please describe "Bernie hater". Thanks.

 

Just Carl

(26 posts)
50. Someone who posts or react negatively about Bernie, no matter what.
Fri Aug 24, 2018, 10:16 PM
Aug 2018

Let's say Bernie ends up being elected popularly by the voters, there will ALWAYS be hardcore Bernie haters that blame Clinton's loss in 2016 on Bernie or other less-known candidates like Stein or Johnson.

It's time for them to move on (I have, since mid-2017) and work on the greater goal, achieving not only the blue wave, but the blue tsunami not seen or felt in the U.S. history.

See my signature. New Era Colorado rocks!

R B Garr

(16,954 posts)
51. Ah, this sounds very familiar but unfortunately is contrary to
Fri Aug 24, 2018, 10:26 PM
Aug 2018

the content I've seen, probably because what you describe sounds like just plain ol' informed Democrats. Informed about what negatively impacts our party, what the current news is, meaning looking at the bigger picture other than just one man. Looking at current news that shows how our party was sabotaged -- staying informed about current events such as the Mueller indictments, Trump's impending downfall based on those Mueller/Federal lawsuits. Informing the public about how many voters were duped with negative information about Democrats and how third party types undermined our nominee. That's what the majority of voters do, so it's time to move on from his loss in 2016, that is true.

 

mythology

(9,527 posts)
65. If somebody's reflexive reaction to the thread was to accuse the OP of being paid to post
Fri Aug 24, 2018, 11:30 PM
Aug 2018

or sowing division, they probably have an irrational hatred of Sanders.

R B Garr

(16,954 posts)
73. Actually, irrational would be insisting that all political
Sat Aug 25, 2018, 01:27 AM
Aug 2018

considerations are about Sanders, or at least telling people to “stow it” if they have other preferences.

Response to R B Garr (Reply #73)

R B Garr

(16,954 posts)
112. Yes, that was obvious with your 20-something posts,
Sat Aug 25, 2018, 07:28 PM
Aug 2018

which is probably why they seem so familiar. Bernie does seem to have a preference for remaining Independent, so we should respect his wishes. Lots of great Democrats out there.

Response to R B Garr (Reply #112)

Squinch

(50,949 posts)
83. No. It means they have noticed something you might not have.
Sat Aug 25, 2018, 09:46 AM
Aug 2018

And at its base it has nothing to do with Sanders.

Hekate

(90,690 posts)
58. As a very new person you probably don't want to tell us we have "extreme hatred" for your hero
Fri Aug 24, 2018, 11:06 PM
Aug 2018

Who is not (and this is not hating on him, just true) a Democrat. He's not a Democrat, so polls saying how popular he is in the tiny states of New Hampshire and Vermont are completely beside the point.

If this hurts your feelings, perhaps Democratic Underground is not for you.

David__77

(23,402 posts)
71. Not everyone on this site hates Bernie Sanders.
Sat Aug 25, 2018, 12:19 AM
Aug 2018

I think some do certainly, and that forms a lens for political analysis. Thanks for your post.

brush

(53,778 posts)
118. It's not really hate, it just we've been there and done that with the divisiveness.
Sat Aug 25, 2018, 07:41 PM
Aug 2018

Don't have time anymore. 2018 and 2020 are too important to get caught up in it again.

 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
17. He ran as a Democrat and won the Democratic primary there last time around
Fri Aug 24, 2018, 06:28 PM
Aug 2018

By a significant margin.

Presumably, that indicates that he was/is popular among Democrats in that state.

Which makes sense because he is a very popular senator from a neighboring state.

sheshe2

(83,770 posts)
37. We are so past the 2016 primary
Fri Aug 24, 2018, 07:02 PM
Aug 2018

...which you keep bringing up... Who Cares! Try thinking about the 2018 primaries that are weeks away.

Move on please.

 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
38. Which 2018 primary are you most interested in?
Fri Aug 24, 2018, 07:04 PM
Aug 2018

I'm certainly interested in learning more about upcoming Democratic primaries and candidates.

 

ehrnst

(32,640 posts)
103. We know that Sanders wants more money and a marketing machine than
Sat Aug 25, 2018, 07:06 PM
Aug 2018

DS could ever offer.

Too poor and too small.

He's stated that he wants an establishment party to carry him, and he uses Tad Devine's experience to make things go more smoothly.

I can't imagine that the DS's would tolerate Tad being attached to any candidate of theirs.





 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
22. Interesting to note that 2 years out of last NH primary, no one knew who Bernie was
Fri Aug 24, 2018, 06:38 PM
Aug 2018

His favorable/unfavorable numbers had "never heard of" as the top option with about 70+ percent well into 2015.

 

Just Carl

(26 posts)
27. If Bernie successfully gets through the primaries, I will be more than happy to vote for him
Fri Aug 24, 2018, 06:53 PM
Aug 2018

Not only will I vote for him, I will beat doors down to get voters out for Bernie.

Or any other Democratic candidate for 2020. See my signature

Thekaspervote

(32,767 posts)
42. Again check out what the dnc said early this spring about supporting non democratic candidates.
Fri Aug 24, 2018, 07:18 PM
Aug 2018

Ain’t gonna happen! They were very firm in their resolution

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
45. If he wasn't favored to win NH, that would be news.
Fri Aug 24, 2018, 09:18 PM
Aug 2018

Just as in 2016, Sanders won't come close to winning the nomination, but he should do quite well in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Of course, as I've been saying for years, I don't think IA and NH should be leading things off. I see no reason beyond tradition why those states should be first. They aren't remotely representative of our electorate.

 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
82. What about Warren?
Sat Aug 25, 2018, 07:24 AM
Aug 2018

Seems like it would be a pretty critical early state for her to win. Especially since, like Bernie, she is also from right next door.

 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
81. Name recognition definitely goes a long way
Sat Aug 25, 2018, 07:21 AM
Aug 2018

It is impressive how quickly he was able to go from being a relative unknown to a household name.

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
90. Not really. It was a 2-person race in 2016, and he capitalized on...
Sat Aug 25, 2018, 02:50 PM
Aug 2018

...being the alternative to a polarizing frontrunner. He stayed in the race long past the point at which it was evident he would lose. Naturally, he garnered a ton of attention.

See post #66.

 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
94. My assertion is that Bernie Sanders ran an impressive campaign
Sat Aug 25, 2018, 04:08 PM
Aug 2018

I think the evidence supports that claim.

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
95. That's fine, but him becoming a household name isn't too amazing to me.
Sat Aug 25, 2018, 04:12 PM
Aug 2018

For reasons already stated.

What he did that was smart (or self-serving, depending on your point of view) was run when he did. 2016 was the perfect storm, so to speak. If 2020 were to be his first attempt, he wouldn't have nearly as much success.

 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
99. I used the word "impressive" not "amazing"
Sat Aug 25, 2018, 06:55 PM
Aug 2018

In any case, it seems that we are basically in agreement. It will be interesting to see what transpires in 2020.

still_one

(92,190 posts)
52. Since he isn't a Democrat, it is going to be difficult for him to get the Democrratic nomination,
Fri Aug 24, 2018, 10:40 PM
Aug 2018

Last edited Sat Aug 25, 2018, 06:55 AM - Edit history (1)

and since no one in the DEMOCRATIC PARTY HAS ANNOUNCED THEY ARE RUNNING, this poll is bullshit, but most importantly, after 2016 he couldn't be quick enough to disassociate himself as identifying as a Democrat, and DEMOCRACTIC voters remember that, and don't appreciate people using the Democratic party to further their political ambitions. You can fool somebody else, but it isn't going to happen again, and he isn't going to get the nomination.

NH has NEVER been representative of the country as a whole, nor have they been particularly accurate in determining a parties nominee.

But this is good divisionary shit to bring up before the very critical primaries, and I find it curious why some find it amusing to bring such issues that can tend to divide Democrats at a time before the midterms when Democrats need unity more than every


Good job


 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
79. It's just a poll - nothing divisive about it
Sat Aug 25, 2018, 07:20 AM
Aug 2018

Everyone is welcome to respond with "hm that's interesting" or "who cares" or anything in between. No reason to fight or get upset. Lots of great potential candidates out there. Worth noting that a solid chunk of them are supportive of Sanders, at least in NH. The primary process will be a long road and I'm sure we will have an argument or two here about who would be the best choice - and that's OK too.

 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
77. Iowa and NH don't have a lot of voters, but they've been first so they have tended to be significant
Sat Aug 25, 2018, 07:15 AM
Aug 2018
 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
76. You got it
Sat Aug 25, 2018, 07:14 AM
Aug 2018

I know it's early, but it's always kind of interesting to see where things stand at various points in various places.

Generic Brad

(14,275 posts)
87. Why was Bernie listed as a Democrat on the poll?
Sat Aug 25, 2018, 09:59 AM
Aug 2018

He is not a member of the party. Caucusing with Democrats still does not make him one.

He is free to run as a party of one, but there no way in hell the Democratic party allows a non-Democrat to vie for the nomination again. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. There is no shame in telling Bernie he's on his own.

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
89. He'll just do what he did last time and what he did before his recent primary.
Sat Aug 25, 2018, 02:29 PM
Aug 2018

He'll register as a Dem and then go back to being registered as an independent after he drops out of the race. Assuming he runs, which seems likely.

pnwmom

(108,978 posts)
105. Joe Kennedy is only 37. I doubt too many people are thinking of him in those terms.
Sat Aug 25, 2018, 07:07 PM
Aug 2018

And Warren announced that she wouldn't be running.

 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
106. Elizabeth Warren is the left's early favorite for 2020
Sat Aug 25, 2018, 07:08 PM
Aug 2018
NEW ORLEANS — The biggest yearly event of plugged-in, progressive activists was Warrenmania.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren broke out from a slate of potential 2020 contenders who delivered mainstage speeches at the 2018 Netroots Nation. The Massachusetts senator brought a packed ballroom of progressives to their feet multiple times to cheer her on Saturday.

“We’re going to have to fight uphill. Me? I’m going up that hill. And I hope you are too,” Warren said to the crowd. “And I hope that you’ll reach your hand out and bring someone else along for the climb. Because we can only make it up that hill together.”

https://www.vox.com/2018/8/6/17646348/elizabeth-warren-netroots-nation-2020-presidential-race-progressive-activists


That's from a few weeks ago. When did she announce she wouldn't be running?

pnwmom

(108,978 posts)
109. A few days ago. "I am not running for President in 2020."
Sat Aug 25, 2018, 07:17 PM
Aug 2018

“I am not running for president in 2020. I am running for the Senate in 2018," Warren told reporters during an appearance at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/402868-elizabeth-warren-says-focused-on-senate-race-not-on-running-for-president


US Sen. Elizabeth Warren said she plans to serve out her six-year term if she's re-elected this year.

"It's certainly my plan," Warren, D-Cambridge, told the Dorchester Reporter's news editor Jennifer Smith during a town hall at the Boston Teachers Union building.

https://www.masslive.com/news/index.ssf/2018/04/i_am_not_running_for_president.html

 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
111. "Warren is largely seen as considering a run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020"
Sat Aug 25, 2018, 07:27 PM
Aug 2018

Interestingly the article you shared from the Hill includes that quote in spite of her remarks.

Do you think she'll end up running or no?

pnwmom

(108,978 posts)
127. I doubt that she'll end up running, and I don't think there's any evidence
Sat Aug 25, 2018, 08:12 PM
Aug 2018

that she's "the" candidate for the left. I don't think there is one yet.

 

ehrnst

(32,640 posts)
101. Edwards was the favorite and Obama was barely the radar at this point in the 2008 campaign.
Sat Aug 25, 2018, 07:00 PM
Aug 2018

Things happen to the frontrunners, and new candidates rise.

http://content.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1570071,00.html

 

ehrnst

(32,640 posts)
107. No, that was later. Edwards was ahead in 2006.
Sat Aug 25, 2018, 07:09 PM
Aug 2018

Edwards 36%

Clinton 16%

Obama 13% - so I take that back - he was on the horizon, but just barely.

http://content.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1570071,00.html

 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
110. That's a poll of just Iowa voters
Sat Aug 25, 2018, 07:23 PM
Aug 2018

Check out this article from Nov. 2006:

With midterms over, all eyes turn to the 2008 presidential race

...

Democratic contenders
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has just won a massive reelection victory to the Senate, has plenty of funds, and can count husband Bill as a plus by her side for Democrats. But with Republicans, she still carries an abundance of liberal baggage. She has been trying to shed this by taking more and more centrist positions.

This, however, has opened her to attack from the left. Al Gore, who once seemed to have entered bearded exile from politics after his defeat in 2000 by Bush, is emerging as a potential challenger from the left. Gore loyalists, who say there is little love lost between the Gores and the Clintons, argue that while Senator Clinton may be able to win her party's nomination, she cannot win the presidency.

Another potential Democratic challenger to Clinton is Barack Obama, who, although still a freshman senator, has won extraordinary exposure and acclaim. Though skeptics wonder whether someone with such relatively little experience in elected office should run at this time, his proponents argue that 2008 might yet afford him his best shot.

Sen. John Kerry apparently still hungers for the presidency, but seasoned Democratic politicos conclude that his prospects of getting another party endorsement are slender. So, too, are the prospects of John Edwards, Senator Kerry's engaging vice presidential partner in the 2004 presidential campaign. Other Democratic politicians mulling their prospects are Delaware Sen. Joseph Biden, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, and Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana.

https://www.csmonitor.com/2006/1115/p09s01-cojh.html?s=widep


Seems to show Hillary and Obama leading the pack.
 

ehrnst

(32,640 posts)
113. Not seeing poll numbers in this article, just an opinion of the journalist
Sat Aug 25, 2018, 07:31 PM
Aug 2018

From a month before the TIME article.

The horses are jostling in the starting gate. The race is about to begin.


Got any numbers?
 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
119. You seem to know a lot about RW think tanks
Sat Aug 25, 2018, 07:43 PM
Aug 2018

This is a poll out of NH about Democrats. Nothing really for any right-wingers to pounce on that I can see. Just basic factual data showing that Bernie continues to be fairly popular among Democrats in NH at this point. Which should not be surprising.

 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
125. Every Democrat should support the primary candidate of their choice
Sat Aug 25, 2018, 08:02 PM
Aug 2018

And then rally behind whoever wins the nomination.

That's what Democracy is all about.

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»NH Primary Source: Poll s...