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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsNH Primary Source: Poll shows Bernie Sanders early 2020 Democratic first-in-nation primary favorite
The University of New Hampshire Survey Center polled 501 randomly selected New Hampshire adults including 198 likely 2020 Democratic presidential primary voters and 199 likely Republican primary voters Aug. 2 to Aug. 19. The margins of error are 7 percent for the Democratic poll and 6.9 percent for the Republican poll.
When asked an open-ended question of who they intend to vote for in the 2020 primary, 65 percent of likely Democratic voters said they were undecided, while 12 percent chose Sanders, 6 percent chose former Vice President Joe Biden and 6 percent chose Massachusetts U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
The survey center then provided a list of Democrats viewed at this early stage as likely candidates for the 2020 nomination.
Sanders was chosen by 30 percent, while 19 percent chose Biden and 17 percent chose Warren. U.S. Rep. Joseph Kennedy III of Massachusetts was named by 7 percent, New Jersey U.S. Sen. Cory Booker received 6 percent, California U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris received 3 percent former Attorney General Eric Holder was picked by 2 percent and former Maryland Gov. Martin OMalley received 1 percent. Twelve percent of those polled were undecided.
https://www.wmur.com/article/nh-primary-source-poll-shows-bernie-sanders-early-2020-democratic-first-in-nation-primary-favorite/22816653
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)Seriously. All the OR splinter groups have moved on and don't even mention him on their web sites. Have any come up with a possibly viable (for them) candidate yet? That's what I'd like to hear from someone who's paying attention.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)It's a poll from NH, just published.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)for cap-P Progressive/social democrats if you happen to come across some excitement. I have looked at what those new groups have been saying in the past year.
Sanders spoiled his brand with some and failed to come through for all. His role right now seems to be as place holder until leadership shifts to one or more vying to be what comes next. Of course, if no one else showed up to elbow him aside, he'd be it again, or still, if he chose to run.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Or if someone who we've already been talking about gains some momentum. My thought is that Kamala Harris could be that person.
brush
(53,778 posts)Sanders, the placeholder, as their candidate, not someone to emerge as the Democratic Party candidatetwo different things.
trixie2
(905 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)Seems a strange reaction.
Squinch
(50,949 posts)trueblue2007
(17,218 posts)SteveMO
(24 posts)In 2016.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)OilemFirchen
(7,143 posts)from whitest state in the nation.
L'Chaim!
R B Garr
(16,954 posts)This isn't saying much at all. The base is not comprised of 2 million people in the smallest whitest states.
Hekate
(90,690 posts)Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Of course Sanders is the favorite in New Hampshire. Him *not* being favored to win NH (and IA and many other states) is what would constitute news.
There were only 2 candidates in 2016 after Iowa (when O'Malley dropped out). Only 1 of them is expected to run in 2020. Needless to say, that individual is going to do well in polls a year and a half before the 2020 primary season begins (and before any serious contender has announced his or her intention to run). Most people aren't political junkies and name recognition dominates right now.
I find it hard to believe that anyone honestly thinks Sanders will be the nominee, but I shouldn't be surprised given how many people were insisting he was going to be the nominee in 2016 well after it was clear that Clinton had it wrapped up (by the 2nd week of March). There's basically no chance that Sanders will be the nominee.
This does, though, provide me yet another opportunity to comment on how much I hate that Iowa and New Hampshire kick things off. Traditions have a lot of staying power, but neither state is even remotely representative of our electorate.
R B Garr
(16,954 posts)Response to oberliner (Original post)
miss-nasty This message was self-deleted by its author.
samnsara
(17,622 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)Squinch
(50,949 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)Not an op-ed or an opinion piece. Just poll data.
Squinch
(50,949 posts)Over and over and over for years.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)I know "Pecker" jokes are more popular right now, but some folks are actually interested in having real conversations about upcoming elections and primaries.
Edit to add: Very proud to say I have helped elevate the dialogue here and initiated thoughtful discussion and analysis on a variety of relevant topics.
Squinch
(50,949 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)Glad to have inspired such a joyful emoji.
On a serious note, we're all in this together. The key is to defeat Republicans in the midterms and in the general. Whether it's Bernie or Biden or Harris or any of the other great options out there - we will eventually all rally behind them, hopefully to victory.
Squinch
(50,949 posts)to sow division.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)I haven't come across any since the primary - where things did get really ugly.
juxtaposed
(2,778 posts)still_one
(92,190 posts)the damage being done to our country, and some believe in their great wisdom this would be the best time to divide Democrats at a time when we need unity more than ever.
Gee, I thought we had to get through the midterms first, but I guess a poll of Democrats, when NO DEMOCRAT HAS OFFICIALLY SAID THEY ARE RUNNING, and one person refuses to even identiry as a Democrat somehow means this poll means something.
Squinch
(50,949 posts)The same can't be said of others in this thread.
OilemFirchen
(7,143 posts)than a statistically useless (7% MOE!) minor poll from a tiny state - in itself statistically irrelevant (95.0% white!) - two + years prior to an election.
Speaking of elevating dialogue, just notice how many punctuation marks I included in my response.
Impressive, huh?
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Personally, I find the polls more interesting than the jokes. Maybe a few other folks do as well (maybe not).
I count twelve punctuation marks - did I miss any?
Just Carl
(26 posts)If the people of the United States wants Bernie Sanders to lead the country, on a Democratic ticket, then what's the harm to the Democratic Party?
I ask, as a Bernie voter and a Clinton voter. I don't understand the extreme hate on Bernie Sanders.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)They are both great.
Thekaspervote
(32,767 posts)To run in 2020.... bernie is an independent. This is not bernie hating!! Just like Hillary she had her chance, its gone. Again.. bernie is not going to be the dem candidate for 2020. I do think IMHO and hope as many others do that bernie will not run in 2020. He will not win as an independent and it will hand us another 4, possibly more years of a broken repuke administration. Please please consider how this could possibly play out.
Just Carl
(26 posts)then declined the nomination, when he won.
Therefore, he is eligible for the 2020 Democratic primaries.
Hekate
(90,690 posts)...no matter how many games he plays in his teeny tiny home state.
R B Garr
(16,954 posts)You are new here and maybe you have a different description from another website or something since you don't mind using it here so soon without being familiar with the site. I know Twitter is very active nowadays. Please describe "Bernie hater". Thanks.
Just Carl
(26 posts)Let's say Bernie ends up being elected popularly by the voters, there will ALWAYS be hardcore Bernie haters that blame Clinton's loss in 2016 on Bernie or other less-known candidates like Stein or Johnson.
It's time for them to move on (I have, since mid-2017) and work on the greater goal, achieving not only the blue wave, but the blue tsunami not seen or felt in the U.S. history.
See my signature. New Era Colorado rocks!
R B Garr
(16,954 posts)the content I've seen, probably because what you describe sounds like just plain ol' informed Democrats. Informed about what negatively impacts our party, what the current news is, meaning looking at the bigger picture other than just one man. Looking at current news that shows how our party was sabotaged -- staying informed about current events such as the Mueller indictments, Trump's impending downfall based on those Mueller/Federal lawsuits. Informing the public about how many voters were duped with negative information about Democrats and how third party types undermined our nominee. That's what the majority of voters do, so it's time to move on from his loss in 2016, that is true.
mythology
(9,527 posts)or sowing division, they probably have an irrational hatred of Sanders.
R B Garr
(16,954 posts)considerations are about Sanders, or at least telling people to stow it if they have other preferences.
Response to R B Garr (Reply #73)
Name removed Message auto-removed
R B Garr
(16,954 posts)which is probably why they seem so familiar. Bernie does seem to have a preference for remaining Independent, so we should respect his wishes. Lots of great Democrats out there.
Response to R B Garr (Reply #112)
Name removed Message auto-removed
R B Garr
(16,954 posts)about him being a Democrat.
Squinch
(50,949 posts)And at its base it has nothing to do with Sanders.
Hekate
(90,690 posts)Who is not (and this is not hating on him, just true) a Democrat. He's not a Democrat, so polls saying how popular he is in the tiny states of New Hampshire and Vermont are completely beside the point.
If this hurts your feelings, perhaps Democratic Underground is not for you.
David__77
(23,402 posts)I think some do certainly, and that forms a lens for political analysis. Thanks for your post.
brush
(53,778 posts)Don't have time anymore. 2018 and 2020 are too important to get caught up in it again.
blue cat
(2,415 posts)On the independent underground?
oberliner
(58,724 posts)msongs
(67,406 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)By a significant margin.
Presumably, that indicates that he was/is popular among Democrats in that state.
Which makes sense because he is a very popular senator from a neighboring state.
sheshe2
(83,770 posts)...which you keep bringing up... Who Cares! Try thinking about the 2018 primaries that are weeks away.
Move on please.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)I'm certainly interested in learning more about upcoming Democratic primaries and candidates.
sheshe2
(83,770 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)I'll do some research!
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)DS could ever offer.
Too poor and too small.
He's stated that he wants an establishment party to carry him, and he uses Tad Devine's experience to make things go more smoothly.
I can't imagine that the DS's would tolerate Tad being attached to any candidate of theirs.
shanny
(6,709 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)His favorable/unfavorable numbers had "never heard of" as the top option with about 70+ percent well into 2015.
ismnotwasm
(41,980 posts)New Hamshire polling being what it is and all
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Just Carl
(26 posts)Not only will I vote for him, I will beat doors down to get voters out for Bernie.
Or any other Democratic candidate for 2020. See my signature
Thekaspervote
(32,767 posts)Aint gonna happen! They were very firm in their resolution
Hekate
(90,690 posts)juxtaposed
(2,778 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)It will be interesting to see how things play out.
katmondoo
(6,457 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)Here are the full results:
https://htv-prod-media.s3.amazonaws.com/files/presidentialprimarypollunhaug2018-1535067149.pdf
Hassin Bin Sober
(26,328 posts)TexasTowelie
(112,202 posts)Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Just as in 2016, Sanders won't come close to winning the nomination, but he should do quite well in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Of course, as I've been saying for years, I don't think IA and NH should be leading things off. I see no reason beyond tradition why those states should be first. They aren't remotely representative of our electorate.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Seems like it would be a pretty critical early state for her to win. Especially since, like Bernie, she is also from right next door.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)LuvLoogie
(7,003 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)It is impressive how quickly he was able to go from being a relative unknown to a household name.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)...being the alternative to a polarizing frontrunner. He stayed in the race long past the point at which it was evident he would lose. Naturally, he garnered a ton of attention.
See post #66.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Garrett78
(10,721 posts)And he's not very charismatic.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)I think the evidence supports that claim.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)For reasons already stated.
What he did that was smart (or self-serving, depending on your point of view) was run when he did. 2016 was the perfect storm, so to speak. If 2020 were to be his first attempt, he wouldn't have nearly as much success.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)In any case, it seems that we are basically in agreement. It will be interesting to see what transpires in 2020.
Kingofalldems
(38,458 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)still_one
(92,190 posts)Last edited Sat Aug 25, 2018, 06:55 AM - Edit history (1)
and since no one in the DEMOCRATIC PARTY HAS ANNOUNCED THEY ARE RUNNING, this poll is bullshit, but most importantly, after 2016 he couldn't be quick enough to disassociate himself as identifying as a Democrat, and DEMOCRACTIC voters remember that, and don't appreciate people using the Democratic party to further their political ambitions. You can fool somebody else, but it isn't going to happen again, and he isn't going to get the nomination.
NH has NEVER been representative of the country as a whole, nor have they been particularly accurate in determining a parties nominee.
But this is good divisionary shit to bring up before the very critical primaries, and I find it curious why some find it amusing to bring such issues that can tend to divide Democrats at a time before the midterms when Democrats need unity more than every
Good job
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Everyone is welcome to respond with "hm that's interesting" or "who cares" or anything in between. No reason to fight or get upset. Lots of great potential candidates out there. Worth noting that a solid chunk of them are supportive of Sanders, at least in NH. The primary process will be a long road and I'm sure we will have an argument or two here about who would be the best choice - and that's OK too.
still_one
(92,190 posts)PubliusEnigma
(1,583 posts)Hekate
(90,690 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)Glamrock
(11,800 posts)Mucho appreciado brother.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)I know it's early, but it's always kind of interesting to see where things stand at various points in various places.
Glamrock
(11,800 posts)Sorry to see you got so much shit for it....
QC
(26,371 posts)David__77
(23,402 posts)I like it. Along with:
Bernie who?
Etc etc
David__77
(23,402 posts)As someone who gladly voted for Sanders, I appreciate it.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)It will be interesting to see what Bernie decides to do.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Generic Brad
(14,275 posts)He is not a member of the party. Caucusing with Democrats still does not make him one.
He is free to run as a party of one, but there no way in hell the Democratic party allows a non-Democrat to vie for the nomination again. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. There is no shame in telling Bernie he's on his own.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)He'll register as a Dem and then go back to being registered as an independent after he drops out of the race. Assuming he runs, which seems likely.
Hassin Bin Sober
(26,328 posts)QC
(26,371 posts)pnwmom
(108,978 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)As does Elizabeth Warren.
pnwmom
(108,978 posts)And Warren announced that she wouldn't be running.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Sen. Elizabeth Warren broke out from a slate of potential 2020 contenders who delivered mainstage speeches at the 2018 Netroots Nation. The Massachusetts senator brought a packed ballroom of progressives to their feet multiple times to cheer her on Saturday.
Were going to have to fight uphill. Me? Im going up that hill. And I hope you are too, Warren said to the crowd. And I hope that youll reach your hand out and bring someone else along for the climb. Because we can only make it up that hill together.
https://www.vox.com/2018/8/6/17646348/elizabeth-warren-netroots-nation-2020-presidential-race-progressive-activists
That's from a few weeks ago. When did she announce she wouldn't be running?
pnwmom
(108,978 posts)I am not running for president in 2020. I am running for the Senate in 2018," Warren told reporters during an appearance at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C.
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/402868-elizabeth-warren-says-focused-on-senate-race-not-on-running-for-president
US Sen. Elizabeth Warren said she plans to serve out her six-year term if she's re-elected this year.
"It's certainly my plan," Warren, D-Cambridge, told the Dorchester Reporter's news editor Jennifer Smith during a town hall at the Boston Teachers Union building.
https://www.masslive.com/news/index.ssf/2018/04/i_am_not_running_for_president.html
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Interestingly the article you shared from the Hill includes that quote in spite of her remarks.
Do you think she'll end up running or no?
pnwmom
(108,978 posts)that she's "the" candidate for the left. I don't think there is one yet.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)ehrnst
(32,640 posts)Things happen to the frontrunners, and new candidates rise.
http://content.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1570071,00.html
oberliner
(58,724 posts)ehrnst
(32,640 posts)Edwards 36%
Clinton 16%
Obama 13% - so I take that back - he was on the horizon, but just barely.
http://content.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1570071,00.html
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Check out this article from Nov. 2006:
...
Democratic contenders
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has just won a massive reelection victory to the Senate, has plenty of funds, and can count husband Bill as a plus by her side for Democrats. But with Republicans, she still carries an abundance of liberal baggage. She has been trying to shed this by taking more and more centrist positions.
This, however, has opened her to attack from the left. Al Gore, who once seemed to have entered bearded exile from politics after his defeat in 2000 by Bush, is emerging as a potential challenger from the left. Gore loyalists, who say there is little love lost between the Gores and the Clintons, argue that while Senator Clinton may be able to win her party's nomination, she cannot win the presidency.
Another potential Democratic challenger to Clinton is Barack Obama, who, although still a freshman senator, has won extraordinary exposure and acclaim. Though skeptics wonder whether someone with such relatively little experience in elected office should run at this time, his proponents argue that 2008 might yet afford him his best shot.
Sen. John Kerry apparently still hungers for the presidency, but seasoned Democratic politicos conclude that his prospects of getting another party endorsement are slender. So, too, are the prospects of John Edwards, Senator Kerry's engaging vice presidential partner in the 2004 presidential campaign. Other Democratic politicians mulling their prospects are Delaware Sen. Joseph Biden, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, and Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana.
https://www.csmonitor.com/2006/1115/p09s01-cojh.html?s=widep
Seems to show Hillary and Obama leading the pack.
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)From a month before the TIME article.
Got any numbers?
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)Kingofalldems
(38,458 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)This is a poll out of NH about Democrats. Nothing really for any right-wingers to pounce on that I can see. Just basic factual data showing that Bernie continues to be fairly popular among Democrats in NH at this point. Which should not be surprising.
Kingofalldems
(38,458 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)And then rally behind whoever wins the nomination.
That's what Democracy is all about.
we can do it
(12,184 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)Omaha Steve
(99,632 posts)She said just this last week she is not running.