Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search
30 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
**Breaking: Trump craters to 40% in new Ipsos Poll as Democrats surge to 46-34 Congresional lead** (Original Post) NewsCenter28 Aug 2018 OP
Excellent! . I think that one poll was taken too early. octoberlib Aug 2018 #1
K AND R DemocratSinceBirth Aug 2018 #2
K&R ismnotwasm Aug 2018 #3
K&R Scurrilous Aug 2018 #4
Polls with 20% undecided are worthless. Nt BootinUp Aug 2018 #5
Shows How Many Idiots There Are In This Country LandOfHopeAndDreams Aug 2018 #9
Why? Not at all unusual..., right up to an election. Scientific polls are always the rage. Fred Sanders Aug 2018 #19
Actually the Trump approval is 38% with 56% disapprove Awsi Dooger Aug 2018 #6
I'm confused as to how 538 is evaluating that poll... regnaD kciN Aug 2018 #7
Where did you get that daily breakdown? NewsCenter28 Aug 2018 #11
Go to this link and hold the cursor over the specific recent day Awsi Dooger Aug 2018 #14
Actually I'm wrong...there is a table with approval text for each day Awsi Dooger Aug 2018 #16
Interesting...when sample size goes up, Trump approval goes down Awsi Dooger Aug 2018 #18
Thanks Awsi!! NewsCenter28 Aug 2018 #24
You are welcome Awsi Dooger Aug 2018 #28
Not News Unless It Goes Below 35% LandOfHopeAndDreams Aug 2018 #8
I noticed the same thing Awsi Dooger Aug 2018 #10
Great news! mcar Aug 2018 #12
There are a lot of polls taken after that...all of them over 40%. Why pick out this one? Honeycombe8 Aug 2018 #13
No his base is somewhere in the 30s maybe lower. Nixon's was in the low 20s the night he resigned rockfordfile Aug 2018 #25
His average is 41.4%. on 538. John Fante Aug 2018 #30
In other words, tRump's rhetoric does hurt him and he cannot shoot somone & not lose voters ffr Aug 2018 #15
BLUE WAVE INCOMING!! workinclasszero Aug 2018 #17
40%???? ConstanceCee Aug 2018 #20
Yeah, it's a tad down, but not exactly cratering. bearsfootball516 Aug 2018 #21
The steady downward trend from August 22 to 28 is interesting Awsi Dooger Aug 2018 #22
40% is appalling Martin Eden Aug 2018 #23
Its embarrassing LiberalLovinLug Aug 2018 #26
Isn't 'craters' a bit of an overstatement? elleng Aug 2018 #27
It's not cratering Dopers_Greed Aug 2018 #29
 
9. Shows How Many Idiots There Are In This Country
Tue Aug 28, 2018, 05:54 PM
Aug 2018

How 20% can not have an opinion of the SOB is beyond my comprehension.

 

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
6. Actually the Trump approval is 38% with 56% disapprove
Tue Aug 28, 2018, 05:39 PM
Aug 2018

That's how Nate lists it on the Trump approval chart.

And confirmed by this cool rolling chart from Ipsos:

http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/CP3_2/type/smallest/dates/20170828-20180828/collapsed/true

That poll dropped Trump's overall approval to 41.4% on 538, from 42.0% earlier today

regnaD kciN

(26,045 posts)
7. I'm confused as to how 538 is evaluating that poll...
Tue Aug 28, 2018, 05:40 PM
Aug 2018

...since, if you click on the link next to it, it shows a quite different picture. They list the rolling average between August 21-27 as 40% approval, but, by the graph itself, it would indicate the rolling average as of the 27th was 38.1% approval, while indicating it's a rolling total, not just that day's portion thereof.

The main issue here is "craters" -- one might say that, since Trump's approval rating has remained a couple of points on either side of 40% practically since he took office, any variance is less a matter of "cratering" and more the standard MoE at play. However, if you look at Ipsos' own graph, you see a very noticeable movement over the past week over approval/disapproval.

8/20 42.9 52.5
8/21 42.1 54.1
8/22 40.4 54.3
8/23 39.1 55.5
8/24 38.6 55.9
8/25 38.7 55.6
8/26 38.3 55.9
8/27 38.1 55.9

Looking at those numbers, there's little statistical "noise" to be seen, just a steady drop, from a disapproval margin of +9.6% to +17.8 over the course of last week. Does that mean that Trump can't rebound? No. But it does mean that the events of last week seem to have had a definite effect that can't be explained away as simple random drift.

NewsCenter28

(1,835 posts)
11. Where did you get that daily breakdown?
Tue Aug 28, 2018, 06:34 PM
Aug 2018

I'd love to have that daily breakdown of the Ipsos so that I can monitor it daily! That's a very cool find! Like, the precise link I mean, haha. I've been looking for something like that.

As far as the confusion, RV is 40%, Adults is 38%. So I go by RV just to be safe (registered voters).

 

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
14. Go to this link and hold the cursor over the specific recent day
Tue Aug 28, 2018, 06:44 PM
Aug 2018
http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/CP3_2/type/smallest/dates/20170828-20180828/collapsed/true

Requires precise mouse movement. You have to look at it. Those numbers cited are not in text

On edit: see post below #16 for better information
 

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
18. Interesting...when sample size goes up, Trump approval goes down
Tue Aug 28, 2018, 07:00 PM
Aug 2018

I just noticed the Ipsos polling from August 22nd forth includes 3200+ each time, according to that link I posted in post #16:

http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/CP3_2/type/smallest/dates/20170828-20180828/collapsed/true/chart/table

You have to scroll to bottom for most recent numbers.

Prior to that, the sampling was generally 2200+ and sometimes 1800 or thereabouts earlier.

Sampling and margin for error estimates are at far left on the table.

I'm not familiar with this polling chart. Maybe they blend or normalize things after a while and the numbers shift. But at first glance it seems they significantly upped the sample size on August 22nd and it may have impacted the findings on Trump's approval rating, although it normally shouldn't happen that way.

NewsCenter28

(1,835 posts)
24. Thanks Awsi!!
Tue Aug 28, 2018, 07:41 PM
Aug 2018

You rock! And yeah the reason I find this noteworthy and cratering is because he had been pushing 50% in THiS poll just a short few weeks ago. So, this is awesome. At least on some of their daily samples, he was pushing 50 I mean.

 

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
28. You are welcome
Tue Aug 28, 2018, 08:09 PM
Aug 2018

I'm glad regnaD and yourself asked further about that poll because otherwise I wouldn't have kept looking and found the numerical chart.

It seems like a great daily source

 
8. Not News Unless It Goes Below 35%
Tue Aug 28, 2018, 05:52 PM
Aug 2018

It goes down to 40%, then up to 43%, then down to 39%, back up to 44%. If the wind blows, it changes a few %.

It is still too high at 40%, and that is hardly cratering.

 

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
10. I noticed the same thing
Tue Aug 28, 2018, 05:55 PM
Aug 2018

Steady drop beginning after August 21.

We'll have to see if it is confirmed by other pollsters, or by this Ipsos link itself.

Good link to keep

Honeycombe8

(37,648 posts)
13. There are a lot of polls taken after that...all of them over 40%. Why pick out this one?
Tue Aug 28, 2018, 06:43 PM
Aug 2018

Is this one noteworthy for some reason?

When I look at those approval polls, I find it depressing. He's holding (and in some cases improving) his mid-40s approval rating. That must be his base. That's pretty high for a POS despicable, corrupt person.

rockfordfile

(8,704 posts)
25. No his base is somewhere in the 30s maybe lower. Nixon's was in the low 20s the night he resigned
Tue Aug 28, 2018, 08:00 PM
Aug 2018

In the the 36% to 38% is really where he's at. The other poll are just blimps. The majority of Americans know that trump/gop are corrupt un-American pos. I think that the midterms will show this.

John Fante

(3,479 posts)
30. His average is 41.4%. on 538.
Tue Aug 28, 2018, 08:14 PM
Aug 2018

That is closer to the results of this poll than it is to the ones you're referencing.

ffr

(22,671 posts)
15. In other words, tRump's rhetoric does hurt him and he cannot shoot somone & not lose voters
Tue Aug 28, 2018, 06:46 PM
Aug 2018

This is why I say, as an illegitimate & ineffective pResident, I'm okay with him remaining in office up to the midterms. He's making our case a lot easier.

 

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
22. The steady downward trend from August 22 to 28 is interesting
Tue Aug 28, 2018, 07:14 PM
Aug 2018

Especially since it coincides with sampling size raised 50% from previous on the 22nd.

It may not hold up, or be mirrored in other polls, but very distinct right now

LiberalLovinLug

(14,176 posts)
26. Its embarrassing
Tue Aug 28, 2018, 08:01 PM
Aug 2018

I guess its fun making up adjectives or verbs to make it sound awesome, but "craters" really? 40% of Americans are willing to give the baffoon a pass On everything.

I still think the MSM could go a lot further. As well as Democrats on the soap box. And other sane Republicans. Sure lots are, but more could and could do it with even more passion.

Dopers_Greed

(2,640 posts)
29. It's not cratering
Tue Aug 28, 2018, 08:14 PM
Aug 2018

I think he's hit his floor.

No way it will go much lower short of the economy crashing.

I hope I'm wrong though.

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»**Breaking: Trump craters...