General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forums**Breaking: Trump craters to 40% in new Ipsos Poll as Democrats surge to 46-34 Congresional lead**
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/Those who said Cohen/Manafort didnt matter or wouldnt matter ended up to be wrong!
octoberlib
(14,971 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)ismnotwasm
(41,998 posts)Scurrilous
(38,687 posts)BootinUp
(47,179 posts)LandOfHopeAndDreams
(872 posts)How 20% can not have an opinion of the SOB is beyond my comprehension.
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)That's how Nate lists it on the Trump approval chart.
And confirmed by this cool rolling chart from Ipsos:
http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/CP3_2/type/smallest/dates/20170828-20180828/collapsed/true
That poll dropped Trump's overall approval to 41.4% on 538, from 42.0% earlier today
regnaD kciN
(26,045 posts)...since, if you click on the link next to it, it shows a quite different picture. They list the rolling average between August 21-27 as 40% approval, but, by the graph itself, it would indicate the rolling average as of the 27th was 38.1% approval, while indicating it's a rolling total, not just that day's portion thereof.
The main issue here is "craters" -- one might say that, since Trump's approval rating has remained a couple of points on either side of 40% practically since he took office, any variance is less a matter of "cratering" and more the standard MoE at play. However, if you look at Ipsos' own graph, you see a very noticeable movement over the past week over approval/disapproval.
8/20 42.9 52.5
8/21 42.1 54.1
8/22 40.4 54.3
8/23 39.1 55.5
8/24 38.6 55.9
8/25 38.7 55.6
8/26 38.3 55.9
8/27 38.1 55.9
Looking at those numbers, there's little statistical "noise" to be seen, just a steady drop, from a disapproval margin of +9.6% to +17.8 over the course of last week. Does that mean that Trump can't rebound? No. But it does mean that the events of last week seem to have had a definite effect that can't be explained away as simple random drift.
NewsCenter28
(1,835 posts)I'd love to have that daily breakdown of the Ipsos so that I can monitor it daily! That's a very cool find! Like, the precise link I mean, haha. I've been looking for something like that.
As far as the confusion, RV is 40%, Adults is 38%. So I go by RV just to be safe (registered voters).
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)Requires precise mouse movement. You have to look at it. Those numbers cited are not in text
On edit: see post below #16 for better information
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)I just noticed the Ipsos polling from August 22nd forth includes 3200+ each time, according to that link I posted in post #16:
http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/CP3_2/type/smallest/dates/20170828-20180828/collapsed/true/chart/table
You have to scroll to bottom for most recent numbers.
Prior to that, the sampling was generally 2200+ and sometimes 1800 or thereabouts earlier.
Sampling and margin for error estimates are at far left on the table.
I'm not familiar with this polling chart. Maybe they blend or normalize things after a while and the numbers shift. But at first glance it seems they significantly upped the sample size on August 22nd and it may have impacted the findings on Trump's approval rating, although it normally shouldn't happen that way.
NewsCenter28
(1,835 posts)You rock! And yeah the reason I find this noteworthy and cratering is because he had been pushing 50% in THiS poll just a short few weeks ago. So, this is awesome. At least on some of their daily samples, he was pushing 50 I mean.
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)I'm glad regnaD and yourself asked further about that poll because otherwise I wouldn't have kept looking and found the numerical chart.
It seems like a great daily source
LandOfHopeAndDreams
(872 posts)It goes down to 40%, then up to 43%, then down to 39%, back up to 44%. If the wind blows, it changes a few %.
It is still too high at 40%, and that is hardly cratering.
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)Steady drop beginning after August 21.
We'll have to see if it is confirmed by other pollsters, or by this Ipsos link itself.
Good link to keep
mcar
(42,372 posts)Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)Is this one noteworthy for some reason?
When I look at those approval polls, I find it depressing. He's holding (and in some cases improving) his mid-40s approval rating. That must be his base. That's pretty high for a POS despicable, corrupt person.
rockfordfile
(8,704 posts)In the the 36% to 38% is really where he's at. The other poll are just blimps. The majority of Americans know that trump/gop are corrupt un-American pos. I think that the midterms will show this.
John Fante
(3,479 posts)That is closer to the results of this poll than it is to the ones you're referencing.
ffr
(22,671 posts)This is why I say, as an illegitimate & ineffective pResident, I'm okay with him remaining in office up to the midterms. He's making our case a lot easier.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Democrats are gonna take out the Trump trash in a few months!!
ConstanceCee
(314 posts)This doesn't seem exactly like cratering. This is shockingly high to me.
bearsfootball516
(6,377 posts)Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)Especially since it coincides with sampling size raised 50% from previous on the 22nd.
It may not hold up, or be mirrored in other polls, but very distinct right now
Martin Eden
(12,875 posts)If it was just 4% I'd still say WTF is wrong with those people?!!
LiberalLovinLug
(14,176 posts)I guess its fun making up adjectives or verbs to make it sound awesome, but "craters" really? 40% of Americans are willing to give the baffoon a pass On everything.
I still think the MSM could go a lot further. As well as Democrats on the soap box. And other sane Republicans. Sure lots are, but more could and could do it with even more passion.
elleng
(131,075 posts)When have his numbers ever been much above 40%
Dopers_Greed
(2,640 posts)I think he's hit his floor.
No way it will go much lower short of the economy crashing.
I hope I'm wrong though.