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WaPo: Don't be so sure Mueller will back off before midterms
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/dont-be-so-sure-mueller-will-back-off-before-midterms/2018/08/31/27cc802e-ad4d-11e8-a8d7-0f63ab8b1370_story.htmlThere is indeed a Justice Department policy against taking significant prosecutorial actions in the weeks leading up to an election if those actions might influence the election’s outcome. But this is not a formal rule written down anywhere , nor has it been mandated by a court or by Congress. It’s variously referred to as a “norm,” “tradition” or “custom” within the department. And there’s not always agreement about what exactly the policy means or when it should apply.
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It’s also clear that choosing when to apply the policy is a matter of discretion and judgment, one that requires an evaluation of any potential impact on the coming election. And there’s good reason to doubt whether the policy actually has much force with respect to the Mueller investigation.
First, the policy is most critical when the Justice Department action directly relates to someone who is a candidate in the upcoming election. That’s not the case here: The president is not on the ballot, nor are any of the other people who could potentially be in Mueller’s crosshairs.
The concerns underlying the policy also are heightened when the Justice Department actions would be a surprise, an unexpected bombshell that reshapes the political landscape. But the details of Mueller’s investigation are widely known, and any potential implications are probably baked into the election already. Short of indicting the president himself, it’s hard to imagine much Mueller could do that would dramatically alter the current picture.
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Finally, the concerns about Justice Department action should be most pronounced when there is a risk the prosecution could seem politically motivated; if a prosecutor from one party could appear to be trying to take down a politician from the other. But despite the president’s repeated tweets about “angry Democrats” investigating him, Mueller is a Republican, and any steps he takes will be approved by Trump’s own Republican deputy attorney general.
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It’s also clear that choosing when to apply the policy is a matter of discretion and judgment, one that requires an evaluation of any potential impact on the coming election. And there’s good reason to doubt whether the policy actually has much force with respect to the Mueller investigation.
First, the policy is most critical when the Justice Department action directly relates to someone who is a candidate in the upcoming election. That’s not the case here: The president is not on the ballot, nor are any of the other people who could potentially be in Mueller’s crosshairs.
The concerns underlying the policy also are heightened when the Justice Department actions would be a surprise, an unexpected bombshell that reshapes the political landscape. But the details of Mueller’s investigation are widely known, and any potential implications are probably baked into the election already. Short of indicting the president himself, it’s hard to imagine much Mueller could do that would dramatically alter the current picture.
-snip-
Finally, the concerns about Justice Department action should be most pronounced when there is a risk the prosecution could seem politically motivated; if a prosecutor from one party could appear to be trying to take down a politician from the other. But despite the president’s repeated tweets about “angry Democrats” investigating him, Mueller is a Republican, and any steps he takes will be approved by Trump’s own Republican deputy attorney general.
-snip-
The author, Randall Eliason, thinks Mueller might opt to keep quiet anyway because of the Trump admin's political propaganda trying to claim this is a hard and fast rule, so anything Mueller does will be viewed by Trump supporters or anyone else naive enough to believe Trump as a partisan witch hunt.
But there's been no indication so far that Mueller is afraid of Trump, or of what Trump supporters will think of him.
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