next week to see family. Looks like it could be a mess. Be safe DUers! Take cover. 😖

They're not evacuating.

He's a Trump loving evangelical.
Guess he put his faith in the Donald and God to protect him.

I don't mean to make humor at the terrible possibilities but messages like Robertson's have an impact on evangelicals. I'm sure a lot of people are going to try out their faith based on that idiot.

with the center staying offshore most of the time

https://www.windy.com/?2018-09-16-18,30.978,-76.487,5

so still need to take it with a grain of salt. It will all depend on what the high to the north does.

Also as a note, the 6z and 18z don't have the larger amount of data ingested in them like the 0z and 12z.

It's very unusual even that the GFS would suddenly change its mind and agree with the EU model. Very odd. Actually it is unusual that they even disagreed to this extent this close to landfall. That they agree now makes sense.

The Euro will lock onto something in the long range and the GFS sees it too, then everything changes in the mid-range and the GFS loses what it had earlier. Then the GFS starts creeping back towards what it saw the first time but often caves (whether it is right or not) to whatever the Euro has in the midrange. The Euro was awful last winter with the threats in my area. Oddly enough, IIRC, one of the Canadian models (I think the CMC/GEM) actually had the correct Irma path that scraped northern Cuba before making the sharp turn north, while the Euro was out to lunch.

This is a "transition" time of year (getting into fall) so the models often have issues. I'm not saying the Euro is wrong in this instance but if I'm not mistaken, the 0z should be running right now and it might be better to rely on that than the interim runs, just because the 0z/12z have more data points (I think that is when they put the hurricane hunter data in and get data from the west coast systems and add that in - which impacts what happens downstream, which is important in this instance).

I was basically parroting what Mike from Mike's Weather Page said on his FB page, he was quite taken aback by the models converging. I'm pretty sure that shortly before Irma turned every model agreed it would turn. Though they disagreed where it would land on the Panhandle they did predict the turn.

(or supposedly fortunately) it's one of my main hobbies. That's why I have no brain left bopping between here and the weather forum I post on (and a garden forum I also post on). At the end of the day I am like this --> if there are big weather events going on

Mike's Weather Page is great as is Tropical Tidbits and a new site that popped up last year - weather.us that has Euro runs out further than other sites (since the UK keeps the Euro as a subscription service).

And I would agree with the fact that having the models come to a consensus on what is really an anomalous track for a storm that was born where it was born, is probably what is intriguing to most mets. But then the past couple years (notably including last year), have been pretty historically anomalous (look at all the Pacific hurricanes this year)!

And yes - with Irma, most knew it would turn and go up into Florida but that path scraping Cuba was completely lost on all but the CMC. I.e., it basically knocked the strength down some (which is good) and it didn't have chance to power back up before landfall (I think issues with eyewall clearing, etc) - where the landfall location was really botched. I.e., they had evacuated much of the east coast of FL (Rash Limpballs was the first to bail) and the storm ended up coming up the west coast, as the track kept changing from run to run until it eventually settled on the western FL track that verified - but not before it was almost too late.

what this might mean for Savannah, GA? I have family there and they're convinced they're in the clear.

When before they may have just expected a bit of rain.

pretty much show the same thing the odds of it happening are high. when the maps show widely different possibilities there is uncertainty. feeling safe just cuz you are a bit far south of NC/SC border does not mean you ARE safe and should do a little storm prep just in case

dismissive about it all, and now I'm starting to freak out.

I think they're just milking the old model for all it's worth.

Give it an hour or two and the weather guys will be reporting this track change. It is an incredible agreement in the models.

Some are very fine “meshed” and have higher resolution than others. Some are true global models without “boundary conditions” that have to be added. Others just simulate part of the globe. Many are run in “ensemble” mode where a parameter is varied and the result plotted. If the results align well, the output has high confidence. If it’s a scattered result, the output is low confidence.

The Euro model, has a tighter mesh than the US model, but outputs data only once every 12 hours and is a subscription service while the US model, GFS, outputs every 6 hours and is free to the public. The Euro, having a tighter mesh and twice the run time is more accurate at longer time scales (>4 days). The reason the US chose a 6 hour run time was to better support aviation.

If all of the models align together, the odds of that weather event / path occurring is high.

Makes sense. I was kind of disappointed the US model seemed to vary so wildly in its prediction. I mean we have all the computing power in the world, give us a good model.

Remember when members of the party of a certain current and several past Presidents wanted to eliminate the Commerce Department (meaning bye bye NOAA/NWS)?



I.e., they don't want to fund them. The big radar dish in P.R. got obliterated due to Hurricane Maria and it finally came back online in June (had to be rebuilt). Hell the radar at KDOX got zapped by lightning almost 2 weeks ago and return to service date is not known at this time.

They are literally evil personified.

Keeps tracking more and more south but it stalls over NC for a ridiculous period of time (like a day and a half).

and get cut off from any steering flows. The NWS here in Philly had noted that in the long range, a cold front would eventually come through and probably grab the remnants, and shunt them through our area. But until that time, it really has no where to go, especially with no digging trough nearby to latch onto once it is onshore and loses momentum.

they do think they're in the clear.

I just spoke with my cousin in Savannah. She said they aren't being evacuated and feel like they're in the clear for now anyway.

so anything on that NE-facing side of the hurricane gets it worse. As long as Savannah is south of that, it will get impacted because of the strength and size of the storm, but the catastrophic stuff would on the opposite side of the cyclone to the north.

Charleston, thought we missed all the fun as this sweetheart would skirt north of us.
One local news station is soft selling it as I guess this was not in their script.

He's been pointing out the EU model all day but kind of just being dismissed by everyone including the NHC guy he'd interview periodically. I bet that NHC guy is shocked by this.

Mostly does PR , Charleston is a small TV market, so....

They know...

I expect SC Governor will be talking again soon.

to drag him out of the bar at his "restricted" country club.

I was very iritated when one of his goons said "people will elect to go to shelters others will go to friends or a hotel."

ASSHOLE PEOPLE WHO GO TO SHELTERS HAVE NO WHERE ELSE TO GO AND NO MONEY.

They don't "elect" to go there, it's a last resort.

Man I'm still mad about their language used the entire time. Talking about not redirecting traffic for people trying to get away because it would interfere with normal day to day operations. Implying people should fend for themselves. Asked about buses taking people to shelters, being dismissive of it. Totally unprepared for what is coming their way.

edit: asked about "water shortages" in the stores and he said "it proves the people are taking care of themselves." Hey, asshole, if there are water shortages maybe some people couldn't get water, think about that?

Have done exactly zero to rectify anything after the last major hit. Have done jack to address the private dam issue, nothing. They're building like crazy on the flood plains, they don't worry about much of anything till disaster strikes, then expect the feds to pay for it, then go right back to bitching about the large federal government.

They're thieves. Every time FEMA has to bail them out (the whole time they bitch about FEMA and complain about death camps), they're literally stealing from the rest of Americans. If they would work on levies and dams and pumps and basic social structural engineering they would save people money and pain.

Instead they let the people suffer from the disaster, as they struggle to get FEMA funding for their possessions being ruined, and then blame FEMA for not doing enough.

Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

Sickens me. Good old southern boys.

It's more of a rain hazard for Charleston.

a reg ordinary rain storm are a problem for Charleston... High tides & this baby, wow, she's packed with water, lots of water.

has it continueing inland towards Raliegh. Not going south into SC.

of South Carolina and Tenn.?

When I read your post it sounded like you were saying it would stall and move down the SC coast.

Did I missread that?

Florence stops short of the NC coast, then slides southwest down the South Carolina coast. Hangs a right between Charleston and Savannah, and heads up the SC-GA state line to batter north Georgia and upstate SC.

I hope WINDY.COM has this one wrong. Or I am screwn.

It may not go exactly as the models show but it's going to give the east coast a bad time no matter what.

Stay safe.

Looks like good for me is bad for you!

Decided to stay put. Thought about getting out of town. But with hurricanes--and their possible change in tracks--could end up worse off!

Hope you are prepared!

She’s about a mile from the ocean. She boarded up the house and is driving inland to stay with me. She says all her neighbors seem to be very nonchalant about the storm and are staying put