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kentuck

(111,104 posts)
Thu Sep 13, 2018, 06:34 PM Sep 2018

Why would Mueller make a plea deal with Manafort??

Unless he is getting something in return?

Obviously he knows that the Manafort lawyers have been communicating with Trump's lawyers. Was there a pardon in the cards?

What does Mueller get out of it??

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Why would Mueller make a plea deal with Manafort?? (Original Post) kentuck Sep 2018 OP
Perhaps Sherman A1 Sep 2018 #1
I have to think so.... We are viewing everything through blinders. hlthe2b Sep 2018 #2
Or through a glass darkly. nt tblue37 Sep 2018 #6
Agreed Sherman A1 Sep 2018 #15
Sorry I brought it up. kentuck Sep 2018 #3
No, don't be sorry AndJusticeForSome Sep 2018 #8
Last I checked this WAS a message board Eliot Rosewater Sep 2018 #9
It's actually a damn good question! lunatica Sep 2018 #63
Perhaps those of us with curious minds AndJusticeForSome Sep 2018 #4
Do what you want Sherman A1 Sep 2018 #16
I don't see anyone arguing otherwise. LanternWaste Sep 2018 #62
Agreed. democratisphere Sep 2018 #18
No offense but your post sounds kind of shitty?? Laura PourMeADrink Sep 2018 #36
Perhaps it does come across that way, Sherman A1 Sep 2018 #49
Yes. I appreciate your point of view. I find sometimes Laura PourMeADrink Sep 2018 #50
I read news stories online Sherman A1 Sep 2018 #55
Laura, you are correct... kentuck Sep 2018 #56
So true, I have been guilty of it multiple times Laura PourMeADrink Sep 2018 #61
Bingo! lunatica Sep 2018 #64
Going to trial can be a roll of the dice left-of-center2012 Sep 2018 #5
Not According To Every Analyst I've Heard LandOfHopeAndDreams Sep 2018 #11
Which probably explains why Manafort isn't even going to try and fight this one. Kaleva Sep 2018 #26
If he's going to get a pardon anyway... kentuck Sep 2018 #31
If he's not giving Mueller anything, I doubt he'll be allowed to plead to a single lesser charge. LastLiberal in PalmSprings Sep 2018 #53
Costs money and puts him more at risk by not dealing. LiberalFighter Sep 2018 #12
IF he's not getting cooperation, he must think there's PR value in an aloqution. CincyDem Sep 2018 #7
That makes sense. kentuck Sep 2018 #13
I don't think we're going to get that lucky. CincyDem Sep 2018 #21
Trump is not going to pull that trigger just yet. Wellstone ruled Sep 2018 #10
My take is this,watch for the Wellstone ruled Sep 2018 #14
What is van rehabilitation? Like throwing Laura PourMeADrink Sep 2018 #37
Not quite, Wellstone ruled Sep 2018 #41
Interesting:). Thanks Laura PourMeADrink Sep 2018 #44
Watching the legal pundits with this.. they seem as clueless as all of us... hlthe2b Sep 2018 #17
A pardon for Manafort is not a pardon for Trump... kentuck Sep 2018 #32
Manafort is not in a good position. The second trial is likely to be worse for him The Velveteen Ocelot Sep 2018 #19
Excellent points! kentuck Sep 2018 #33
I was thinking get the red out Sep 2018 #45
Robert Mueller knows what he'll get out of any deal PJMcK Sep 2018 #20
Maybe there are banks, oligarchs, accounts, henchmen, or other evidence he's witholding? lindysalsagal Sep 2018 #22
I Can Think of Two Possible Reasons: SDJay Sep 2018 #23
Would he flip for witness protection? He's not safe otherwise. bettyellen Sep 2018 #24
russia in the pence pick. more russia. pansypoo53219 Sep 2018 #25
I have to entertain the possibility HopeAgain Sep 2018 #27
do we have confirmation from Mueller that there is a plea deal? Grasswire2 Sep 2018 #28
What about treason? Is it punishable by death,? Laura PourMeADrink Sep 2018 #38
Maybe it's a get-nothing, give-nothing deal. RockRaven Sep 2018 #29
Great minds. See #59. Someday I'll read before I speak. :-) LAS14 Sep 2018 #60
What Will Manafort Will Give Up.... HumblePi Sep 2018 #30
Interesting point about Don Jr and the Trump Tower meeting... kentuck Sep 2018 #34
But just meeting. Is not a crime. Laura PourMeADrink Sep 2018 #39
BUT......... Grasswire2 Sep 2018 #43
It does sound fishy, don't it? kentuck Sep 2018 #47
Manafort must publicly, specifically, and verbally admit to all charges in court. tableturner Sep 2018 #35
yes, that's true Grasswire2 Sep 2018 #40
A theory on twitter: ecstatic Sep 2018 #42
But then who takes down Trump? Grasswire2 Sep 2018 #48
New York state greymattermom Sep 2018 #52
Manafort lives in Virginia and presumably files his taxes there. Calista241 Sep 2018 #54
all well and good, but if Mueller doesn't stamp out the very real collusion with indictments... Grasswire2 Sep 2018 #57
Hopefully enough dirt on pence to take him down nini Sep 2018 #46
Does he still pay that massive fine greymattermom Sep 2018 #51
Manafort's plea deal includes a cooperation agreement Botany Sep 2018 #58
How do we know it was a "deal?" Maybe they tried for a deal, didn't.. LAS14 Sep 2018 #59

Sherman A1

(38,958 posts)
15. Agreed
Thu Sep 13, 2018, 06:42 PM
Sep 2018

The guy knows what he is doing and even if it is a huge error it is really beyond anything that we have a say in. It will be interesting to see the path forward, but not mine to worry about one way or the other.

lunatica

(53,410 posts)
63. It's actually a damn good question!
Fri Sep 14, 2018, 01:09 PM
Sep 2018

It allows intelligent analytical educated opinions of which we have plenty in DU.

My thinking is that Mueller is getting what he wants out of it. Why would he bother since it’s Manafort who has something to gain personally, like less prison time. Manafort is already a convicted felon. Why is he giving up so much in wealth and assets, which he has dedicated his life in international criminal activities to get?

Mueller probably just guaranteed himself and Justice a catch of who’s who in international crimes. It’s Mueller who is calling the shots, not Manafort.

We can only hope Trump is among the other criminals Mueller is netting.

AndJusticeForSome

(537 posts)
4. Perhaps those of us with curious minds
Thu Sep 13, 2018, 06:37 PM
Sep 2018

just would like to know anyway. We are allowed to speculate here still, aren't we?

 

LanternWaste

(37,748 posts)
62. I don't see anyone arguing otherwise.
Fri Sep 14, 2018, 12:55 PM
Sep 2018

Much as your reponse and $1.75 will buy a bottle of sweet ice tea.

Sherman A1

(38,958 posts)
49. Perhaps it does come across that way,
Fri Sep 14, 2018, 06:10 AM
Sep 2018

however I find the OP to be equally phrased in such a manner as you describe and came across as "shitty" to me which prompted my response. That said, in practical terms comments here really won't change anything regarding this issue and are nothing more than conjecture, speculation and opinion, as are most of the posts on this board.

Mr. Mueller is doing his job based upon his directive, training, the information available at the time and the laws that apply to this case. If you doubt that, believe that your's, mine or other's opinions will make an impact on the issue then by all means speculate away.

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
50. Yes. I appreciate your point of view. I find sometimes
Fri Sep 14, 2018, 10:12 AM
Sep 2018

It's hard to phrase posts perfectly.. especially when you post on impulse. I think many of us just want to brainstorm. I don't think of that as a bad thing.

Most of the time on the news subject matter is treated very lightly without any real analysis. Haven't you seen a news story and immediately come up with a million questions you would have asked?

I don't think any of the questions regarding Mueller actions have anything to do with not thinking he isn't doing a superb job.

Sherman A1

(38,958 posts)
55. I read news stories online
Fri Sep 14, 2018, 10:57 AM
Sep 2018

Avoiding the endless blather of the 24/7 breathless, breaking news infotainment talking heads who do little more than self promote and speculate between ads for drugs we never knew we needed. I take in what I can in a variety of topics, but spend little time with questions as I am off to the next bit of news.

kentuck

(111,104 posts)
56. Laura, you are correct...
Fri Sep 14, 2018, 11:21 AM
Sep 2018

It is easy to misinterpret the intent of posters. We are all guilty sometimes , I think .

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
61. So true, I have been guilty of it multiple times
Fri Sep 14, 2018, 12:39 PM
Sep 2018

I think I have the most brilliant idea LOL only to pull up my post later and I have said something wrong, used the wrong word, whatever and have a dozen responses "how dumb" "you're wrong" "how dare you use the p word when describing a weakling". My bruised ego finally made me cut down.

I understand when people are different and don't want to hypothesize about things. But I don't really understand why they would even waste their time on a discussion forum.

lunatica

(53,410 posts)
64. Bingo!
Fri Sep 14, 2018, 01:22 PM
Sep 2018

Why bother even being on a discussion board if you don’t want to discuss issues?

We all learn to sharpen our debating skills here. My debating skills have grown strong just by posting on DU and getting slapped upside the head a few times. You learn to express yourself intelligently, succinctly, and armed with backup when you opine on DU.

This board will keep you honest AND informed!

You also learn that because of that you can believe the more wise and learned among us.

 
11. Not According To Every Analyst I've Heard
Thu Sep 13, 2018, 06:39 PM
Sep 2018

They've all been saying that there is more evidence against Manafort in this trial than the last.

Kaleva

(36,312 posts)
26. Which probably explains why Manafort isn't even going to try and fight this one.
Thu Sep 13, 2018, 10:13 PM
Sep 2018

It'd be money wasted paying lawyers for a lost cause.

kentuck

(111,104 posts)
31. If he's going to get a pardon anyway...
Thu Sep 13, 2018, 11:05 PM
Sep 2018

..why spend the money on a trial? Just plead guilty for lesser charges.

Then wait on your pardon...

Mueller knows he waiting on a pardon, I get the feeling.

53. If he's not giving Mueller anything, I doubt he'll be allowed to plead to a single lesser charge.
Fri Sep 14, 2018, 10:44 AM
Sep 2018

He'll have to plead to the whole ball of wax. Of course, he's got to stand in open court and say what he is pleading guilty to.

I think everyone is expecting there will be an immediate pardon.

LiberalFighter

(50,950 posts)
12. Costs money and puts him more at risk by not dealing.
Thu Sep 13, 2018, 06:39 PM
Sep 2018

Going from a court that favored him more to one that is more difficult makes it dicier yet.

CincyDem

(6,363 posts)
7. IF he's not getting cooperation, he must think there's PR value in an aloqution.
Thu Sep 13, 2018, 06:37 PM
Sep 2018

My money says Trump is going to pardon Manafort.

Manafort knows it.
Mueller knows it.
Putin knows it.

So lets just get as much out of this as easily as possible. Having Manafort stand up in court and actually say what he did (vs. having Mueller assert it in a trial) is probably a better deal in the end for the overall investigation.

Just my two cents knowing no more than anyone else on the board.

kentuck

(111,104 posts)
13. That makes sense.
Thu Sep 13, 2018, 06:40 PM
Sep 2018

If Manafort confesses under oath that he committed crimes and that Trump was aware of them or was also involved?

CincyDem

(6,363 posts)
21. I don't think we're going to get that lucky.
Thu Sep 13, 2018, 06:49 PM
Sep 2018


I'd love to have him toss the orange onto the pyre but he can confess to all his FARA crimes without implicating the president. I think the one thing that may potentially come from it might be something about his effort to change the party platform. He could confess to that and say nothing about the candidate.

I don't know. I think he's going to his grave with his secrets...sooner or later but probably not of natural causes.

I'm kind of in the all or nothing camp on manafort right now. If he's not going to roll on Trump, I don't give a shit about him. If he is, I'll nominate him for best foreign agent of the year. Anything in between just isn't interesting.

I'm sure that comes from not knowing all the legal nuances of the puzzle mueller is piecing together. It may be that manafort convictions and guilty pleas are valuable without any cooperation. I'll wait for the lawyers to tell me all about that.

 

Wellstone ruled

(34,661 posts)
10. Trump is not going to pull that trigger just yet.
Thu Sep 13, 2018, 06:38 PM
Sep 2018

BTW,there are still ten items hanging from Virginia.

 

Wellstone ruled

(34,661 posts)
14. My take is this,watch for the
Thu Sep 13, 2018, 06:41 PM
Sep 2018

Federal Prison System to employ what is called Van Rehabilitation once he is Sentenced.

 

Wellstone ruled

(34,661 posts)
41. Not quite,
Thu Sep 13, 2018, 11:52 PM
Sep 2018

he is hauled around the USA in a Prison Van for several days or weeks,different County Jail each night. Usually reserved for those whom think they just screwed over a Prosecutor or smarted off to some jailer.

hlthe2b

(102,297 posts)
17. Watching the legal pundits with this.. they seem as clueless as all of us...
Thu Sep 13, 2018, 06:44 PM
Sep 2018

I should think there are lots of tools in Mueller's chest though, even if he knows full well that Trump is trying to do a back-channel pardon. Earlier on, it was reported that Mueller and SDNY were sharing info with the NY State AG (and perhaps the NYC DA).... So, I have a hard time thinking Manafort will not end up in prison regardless. Knowing that, I really can't imagine Mueller would not gain something from Manafort. If nothing else, pardon or no, Mueller can require Manafort's testimony during which he'd not be eligible to plead the 5th.

kentuck

(111,104 posts)
32. A pardon for Manafort is not a pardon for Trump...
Thu Sep 13, 2018, 11:08 PM
Sep 2018

If Mueller has evidence of both of them involved in a crime, such as money-laundering, he could still charge Trump later, could he not??

The Velveteen Ocelot

(115,740 posts)
19. Manafort is not in a good position. The second trial is likely to be worse for him
Thu Sep 13, 2018, 06:47 PM
Sep 2018

than the first one, since a DC jury is likely to be less sympathetic, and the judge certainly isn't as much of a problem for the prosecutors as Ellis was. Also, another trial will be extremely costly, and he is probably about out of money. Manafort has a lot to lose by not pleading guilty and instead proceeding to trial. This suggests that Mueller is likely to have required some amount of cooperation in exchange for accepting a plea - unless Manafort is offering a straight plea to everything with no concessions regarding reduced penalties. His prior conviction carries a likely sentence of about 10 years, but a straight plea in this case would probably result in an effective life sentence.

There is the possibility that he has been promised a pardon but that has its own problems because it would mean he no longer has 5th Amendment protection and therefore could be required to testify as a witness. Also, if the state of New York prosecuted Manafort, Trump can't pardon him. And, of course, there is the question of whether promising someone a pardon in exchange for their silence is another act of obstruction of justice.

get the red out

(13,467 posts)
45. I was thinking
Fri Sep 14, 2018, 12:18 AM
Sep 2018

Pardoning Manafort wouldn't be much help to Trump since Manafort could then be required to testify since he would no longer be able to use the 5th amendment. I suspect that Muller has plenty of information should Manafort lie under oath post pardon.

PJMcK

(22,037 posts)
20. Robert Mueller knows what he'll get out of any deal
Thu Sep 13, 2018, 06:49 PM
Sep 2018

Let’s remember that he has a vast trove of information about what happened in 2016.

He’s got his own plan and strategy. I’m betting on the pro.

lindysalsagal

(20,692 posts)
22. Maybe there are banks, oligarchs, accounts, henchmen, or other evidence he's witholding?
Thu Sep 13, 2018, 06:50 PM
Sep 2018

Maybe he'll implicate himself only with protection? Insurance? Limits to prosecution?

SDJay

(1,089 posts)
23. I Can Think of Two Possible Reasons:
Thu Sep 13, 2018, 06:51 PM
Sep 2018

1. He's cooperating and flipping; or
2. He's not, and Mueller knows a pardon is coming, so RM is saving his office the time/money necessary to get to guilty anyway.

I'd also guess that:

1. Mueller doesn't necessarily need Paulie Walnuts' testimony; and
2. Paulie knows that if he flips, he's a dead man, whether he's in prison or not. The Russians will kill you, your family, everyone you know and everyone they know if they feel like it.

Therefore, my guess is it's basic pragmatism from Mueller.

HopeAgain

(4,407 posts)
27. I have to entertain the possibility
Thu Sep 13, 2018, 10:13 PM
Sep 2018

that we may just not get from the Mueller investigation all that we hope for.

Grasswire2

(13,571 posts)
28. do we have confirmation from Mueller that there is a plea deal?
Thu Sep 13, 2018, 10:19 PM
Sep 2018

Well, here's what Seth Abramson says about the news.


1) Manafort is cooperating, giving up Trump/someone else.

2) Trump illegally promised Manafort a pardon.

3) Mueller offered Manafort a long consecutive sentence—which Manafort took because he thinks if the facts come out at trial he'll get far worse.

RockRaven

(14,974 posts)
29. Maybe it's a get-nothing, give-nothing deal.
Thu Sep 13, 2018, 10:31 PM
Sep 2018

Let's say Manafort refuses to cooperate in the way which Mueller wants, but has acknowledged to himself that unless he gets pardoned he is going to die in prison of old age before he finishes his sentences.

So Manafort pleads guilty (to save lawyer money, to get the case over with so Trump can pardon him sooner, for whatever motivation) but doesn't get much in terms of lower sentencing recommendation or dropping certain charges. And Mueller gets a de facto life sentence (given Manafort's age and the charges he faces) and maybe some asset forfeiture too. Nobody is happy but nobody really gave away anything either.

I guess what I'm saying is that it could be rational for Mueller to make some kind of a deal -- so long as it is not a sweetheart deal for Manafort -- even without getting what he wants.

HumblePi

(46 posts)
30. What Will Manafort Will Give Up....
Thu Sep 13, 2018, 10:42 PM
Sep 2018

I believe Manafort is assured that Trump will pardon him, but that would be impossible if Trump ends up being indicted. Can a president under federal indictment pardon another who has pleaded guilty to federal crimes? nope

Manafort is staring down the barrel of many years in prison if he gets indicted in a new trial in DC whereas he's looking at maybe a ten year sentence if he takes a plea of guilty.

Prosecutors know they have him pretty much nailed as far as any trial goes and Manafort knows it too, that's why he wants to avoid a trial at any cost. But the prosecutors wouldn't have accepted a plea deal unless they were getting something valuable in exchange. So, what could be that valuable to prosecutors?

One thing that I'm thinking of is the fact that since Manafort was part of that Trump Tower meeting with Don Jr and Kusher that he must know whether or not Trump knew about that meeting before and after it happened. If Manafort provides that kind of damaging information on Trump that would be enough to indict Trump on collusion and possibly conspiracy charges.

Grasswire2

(13,571 posts)
43. BUT.........
Thu Sep 13, 2018, 11:54 PM
Sep 2018

That stupid agreement between Manafort's attorneys and Giuliani that Giuliani revealed yesterday means that Manafort is not likely to give Mueller anything that would jeopardize the anticipated pardon.

I wonder why those kinds of agreements are allowed. The exchange of information between co-conspirators defeats the Rule of Law, doesn't it?

tableturner

(1,683 posts)
35. Manafort must publicly, specifically, and verbally admit to all charges in court.
Thu Sep 13, 2018, 11:21 PM
Sep 2018

The effect of that admittance is to totally knock down the following falsehoods:

1. That this has been a witch hunt

2. That crimes did not occur

3. That Manafort, an innocent man, has been railroaded

That delineation of the real crimes that have been committed will probably be important in the near future. Eventually, when Trump and/or his crew are indicted, most likely some of those indictments will be based on crimes that Manafort admitted have occurred, so that avenue of attack by the indictees will be obviated.

Calista241

(5,586 posts)
54. Manafort lives in Virginia and presumably files his taxes there.
Fri Sep 14, 2018, 10:51 AM
Sep 2018

So it would have to be Virginia that prosecutes him.

Grasswire2

(13,571 posts)
57. all well and good, but if Mueller doesn't stamp out the very real collusion with indictments...
Fri Sep 14, 2018, 11:34 AM
Sep 2018

......the ogres of the right wing will get away with their crimes again. The howling from them will never end.

LAS14

(13,783 posts)
59. How do we know it was a "deal?" Maybe they tried for a deal, didn't..
Fri Sep 14, 2018, 11:38 AM
Sep 2018

...get it and decided to plead guilty on all charges. Save money. Gamble on a pardon.

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