It's really not complicated.

They aren't going to skip Pence just because he's likely to be in trouble. They won't skip Pence even if it 100% guaranteed that he will eventually be impeached, or even that if he plans to leave. I don't they they even *CAN* skip Pence unless Pence says "no thanks".

Pence will become President and then a new vp will be picked.

Nope, Pence will pull in some Republican from left field to be VP. This person will of course be worse than Pence, Trump and W. Then if Pence goes VP Newguy becomes President.

Only way we are going way down the line of succession would be if there is a massive Cylon attack that takes out everyone above simultaneously.

Ralph Reed or Dobson.

I don't think so.

The Consitution (25th amendment) simply states

In case of the removal of the President from office or of his death or resignation, the Vice President shall become President.

I don't think there is an exemption that allows him to refuse.

until confirmed by the Senate. With no actual Vice President to act as President of the Senate, the Republicans will have to muster up 51 votes. After January 3, that may be difficult!

Pence could be "out" only if he is impeached, indicted or resigns. Right now there is speculation that Pence is involved in some of Manafort's shenanigans, but so far there have been no clear indications that Mueller is investigating him. Obviously that could change depending on what Mueller learns from Manafort - but if there is dirt on Pence that implicates him in the Russia interference, it's possible that he could be indicted - sitting vice presidents probably don't have the same immunity from indictment as presidents (Spiro Agnew made that argument but it looked like he was going to be indicted on corruption charges anyhow, so he resigned and later pled guilty). But the catch is that if Trump is still in office but Pence leaves, Trump will appoint a new vice president, which he is obligated to do according to the 25th Amendment. Conversely, if Trump leaves with Pence in office, Pence becomes president and appoints a vice president. If Pence is thereafter impeached, the new vice president becomes president and appoints his own vice president.

The speaker of the House never becomes president under any of these scenarios - the only way that can happen is if both the president and the vice president leave office before a new vice president can be appointed, as in a scenario in which both are, for example, assassinated at the same time. That's what the succession provision was anticipating.

Sarah Palin would be an excellent choice as VP. The same combination of intelligence and awareness as Trump.

Remember Ryan appears to have known about the Russian funding for Republican candidates ("Just keep it in the family" he said). Mueller is taking out the lower levels of malefactors first, it appears. So both Ryan and Pence may have been replaced by the time he gets to Trump. I would think that no Republican that had any involvement with Russian interests or money would be stupid enough to accept the Vice-Presidency or the Speaker positions, since that would increase any interest that Mueller might have in their activities. So it is a big mystery who would actually be in line to replace Trump in the near term.

Indeed, I have wondered if Ryan's unexpected retirement was a result of his vulnerability in this investigation.

for a while.

25 is not nearly as easy as it looks to some, and impeachment is actually easier. Either way, unless Trump is found slobbering on the floor or on his deathbed, the process is not immediate and requires too many congresscritters to be on board.

And the way things look these days, Pelosi is not a shoo-in for Speaker. Lots of anti-Pelosi sentiment out there-- not that she's a bad person or inept Speaker, just that it's time for new blood.

If the we take over one, or preferably both, houses, we have effectively stopped most of Trump's idiocy. We will, however, have tough time keeping up with the increased tweets.

Even if we win a majority in both houses there will never be enough republicans voting him out to get to 67 Senators.

We have him till 2020.

But if we win the Senate no more judges should get confirmed and we should have open hearings to lay out all the crimes of Trump and the Republican Party for all to see.

To make his life a living hell til 2020. Even if we take back the Senate we’d still need 2/3 to convict

The Vice President becomes President.

If there is no Vice President the Speaker of the House becomes President. It would not matter if it is the last day of the Speaker's term and he is not returning to Congress, he would still become President. There is no "disqualification" based whether or not the Speaker is going to serve another term.

It doesn't work that way.

Google: U.S. Constitution

.

Remember, the Speaker of the House can be any citizen, not just an elected member of the house.

The only time the Speaker would become president is if both the president and the VP are removed in some way at the same time, before it is possible for the president to appoint a new VP.