I just read yesterday that Cruz broke the law by peddling disinformation.

Apparently he knew it would work and didn't give a shit.

For example: (There is some debate over whether this is legal or not)

Link to tweet

Piss people off?
Strange how it works in his favor

The problem with that, though, is this year the voters most likely to vote don't fit the usual mid-term mold.

Usually, "likely" means older, whiter, GOPer.

This year, the Dem registration efforts and overall voter enthusiasm is off the charts, while the MAGAts are beginning to appear a bit disillusioned.

Bottom line: this poll might be an outlier, but it would do us well to take it as Gospel and work like the devil to make sure Beto wins anyway.

This is the first poll with a likely voter profile added and the Beto campaign is appealing to people who never voted before

I am guessing that a lot of Beto's supporters have cell phones only. I know I do.

aside from trump he is the most despicable politician in office and that's saying a lot regarding republicans.

and he has an R next to his name.

If I were to ask the next 10 Texans I randomly bump into 4 might admit they will vote Cruz, only one would admit they 'like' him... Cruz is NOT popular even IF he manages to win.

just too many folks who would have to split ticket vote between the governor's race and this one.

But I'm showing up and voting for him nevertheless and hopeful I'm wrong.

Dems have for years said Texas is changing we can win the state soon. It hasn't happened yet.

I have also heard the argument about inspiring "non-voters." That hardly ever holds true.

Don't get be wrong Beto is great but I have never been bullish on his chances. The best we can hope for is National Republicans are forced to spend money in Texas.

in some statewide/national races. It will happen eventually. Not sure if it will be this time because Abbott has a 20 point lead. If his voters get out and vote, don't think enough will split tickets.

But I donate, make calls, and will vote.

Beto can pull this off we just need to work really hard to GOTV.

There was a poll out not long ago that had him behind by 1. Wtf would cause a shift like this? Come on.

you can safely (and sadly) say he has it in the bag.

Its Quinnipiac poll to start with and basically no poll can be accurate now adays due to so much different technology. Now you have not only land lines along with cell phones and dont forget those that have cells that are not connected to a peculiar cell company. Also added will be newly registered voters, many of which will be the millennial voters. Yes I know it's Texas, but I still feel it's Betos for the win.

I think Beto has HUGE potential. I'd love nothing more than to send Cruz's smug ass home.

I have never seen so much enthusiasm and excitement for a Democrat in my life (and I'm pretty old). Beto signs everywhere. On my Twitter and Facebook my many followers from other states are going crazy over Beto. I refuse to believe one poll.

Watch the Beto/Cruz debates (3) and let's see where the polls are then. The first debate is the this coming Friday night.

Texas seems a tough state to win for democratic candidates for some reason. Even in blue states, republicans win sometimes. Why not democratic candidates in red states? Seems unfair.

In the big cities, Beto holds sway. The poll MAY be accurate, and it's true that the media can give a skewed picture of popular sentiment. Still, I was there in August--granted, only in Dallas--and there was definitely a Beto buzz in the air.

Arizona is slowly turning while Georgia and especially Texas are overhyped. I will continue to emphasize that. Polls mean very little. If a state simply has too many self-identified conservatives then there is no margin for error in a federal race. Beto would have greater chance in a governors race, where more voters allow themselves to stray from their preferred party.

Texas has 44% self-identified conservatives and 3/4 of that block place themselves toward the extreme end of conservatism. That is too much for Beto to overcome.

Nate Silver wrote in early August that the fundamentals of this race indicate a 5-10 point edge for Cruz. I agree. It is sad to watch our most awesome candidate wasted in a state like that.

The only surprising and somewhat questionable aspect of this poll is the high 52-43 favorable rating for Cruz. I have not seen it in that range. Normally Cruz has an even split in terms of favorable/unfavorable. So maybe the 9 point margin is high. But I believe it is more real world than the recent 1 point poll, or anything trying to pretend this race is near toss up.

A Texas political site broke it down in terms of raw numbers about a week ago. Not a perfect comparison but it basically demonstrates that Beto needs to find several hundred thousand votes:

https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blog/odds-against-orourke-some-back-envelope-vote-counting-texas-senate-race

These new voters would not be I clouded in any poll.

New registered voters is the reason Fl Gov candidate Andrew Gillum appeared out of the blue...

Same thing w/Pres in 2008 and 2012!

....not the least of which is that it will likely cause anyone within any position of power in the party to pull us back into our turtle shell fo hiding and never running anything other than an old, white, conservative Dem in red states. They won't see "Wow, holy crap look how close to winning this young, charismatic upstart came to beating one of the biggest names in the Republican party!" they'll see "Don't try!"

It’s not as if he was teaching chemistry 6 months ago. Beto will be fine. The real number is closer to 5 with a lot of time still left on the clock.

...my point is that he's younger, and more dynamic than the party is usually willing to get behind in bigger national red state races against bigger names like Cruz. And correct me if I'm wrong (I'm not from that area), but for his current seat, didn't he meet some resistance from party leaders? And didn't Obama noticeably leave him off a list of endorsements?

My point being is that even if Beto loses (and I hope he does not), he will have done AMAZING in a red state, and engaged a lot of voters both new and old and points us toward the future. And I hope the party celebrates and embraces that even in potential defeat rather than using it is an excuse to go back to the safe, stodgy, old white conservative male red state ways.

Nationally, weve got a lot of really good candidates this cycle who aren’t old White males.

That said, state party politics, where a lot of prospective candidates are made or broken as they are coming up through the ranks and starting their time in politics, can be complicated, and very good old boy network. I don’t have a good feel for what the vibe is with the party in Texas. Whether it’s old and stodgy or more forward thinking. Clearly Beto was able to navigate it as he was coming up. Hopefully there will be others.

This time around there is a lot of diversity. It's not just Beto who I worry about. I worry if this election isn't a blow out all around, that the fact that we tried new things, new people, new faces, and new approaches will be blamed rather than all the other stuff that bears responsibility (taking responsibility for our failures is not the strong suit of our party leaders.

Beto was able to navigate it, but my understanding is that he's faced a fair amount of resistance from party establishment and the old guard, but managed to get through it and navigate it as you said DESPITE their opposition rather than because of their help.

But that is not promising. Late comebacks in general elections virtually never happen, 2016 properly ignored.

In an increasingly polarized era both sides are locked in place and there are very few undecideds. This is hardly a free flowing primary like Gillum won in Florida. Texas has 44% conservatives and they will not budge. Yard signs mean nothing.

Check out the 538 senate models on 538. We have one Democrat after another that we feel good about in senate races, yet the 538 projection is 1.5 to 3 point victory margins. Yet we are all but taking some of them for granted. This race is considerably more lopsided than that yet we prefer to call it a toss up or nearby.

Senate remains very scary this cycle. Then we are in better shape in 2020 and 2022.

monetary donations

Not that Beto can't win, but that it isn't cash that he needs. He has $13.9 M in the bank. You're better off giving to one of the competitive Texas House candidates, who'll help turn out Democratic votes:

Colin Allred (TX-32)
Gina Ortiz-Jones (TX-23)
Todd Litton (TX-2)
Joseph Kopser (TX-21)
M.J. Hegar (TX-31)

Some of this change could be statistical noise, but Quinnipiac also changed the population it was polling between surveys. They went from registered to likely voters.

District 19, I believe. Gallego lost and the seat switches to Republican for the first time in 135 years. Outcome guarantees a super majority for the GOP.

I was on a betting site and saw some right wingers crowing about it, so I read some articles. Gallego's campaign manager was stunned. A local political analyst blamed it on Democratic complacency. Others said Texas Republicans are especially motivated this cycle, with all the talk of a surge from the other side.

I hope we aren't full out on the Beto race to the exclusion of everything else.

Above all I just hope we are realistic about Beto's chances. He can do everything perfectly in that state and still get semi-trounced by 5+ points.