Texas Democrats need a big turnout to win. Polls suggest they won't get it.
dang. the last poll looked good for Beto!!
Texas Democrats need a big turnout to win. Polls suggest they won't get it.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/18/politics/texas-likely-registered-voters/index.html?utm_term=image&utm_source=twCNNp&utm_content=2018-09-19T17%3A15%3A07&utm_medium=social
Updated 3:12 AM ET, Wed September 19, 2018
(CNN)It's become an old cliché that elections "come down to turnout." While that may be exaggerated in most places, it's definitely not in Texas. Democrats need voters who don't traditionally vote to cast a ballot this year in order to to win, and it's not clear that they will in 2018. This could cost Democrats on both the Senate and House sides.
A new Quinnipiac University poll of the Texas Senate race finds Republican Sen. Ted Cruz leading Democrat Beto O'Rourke by a 9-point margin. That's Cruz's best poll in over two months, and an increase from his 6-point advantage last month in the Quinnipiac University poll.
Some of this change could be statistical noise, but Quinnipiac also changed the population it was polling between surveys. They went from registered to likely voters.
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Most public pollsters shift to likely voters around this time as it becomes clearer who is going to vote in the midterm the closer we are to an election. That's especially the case for pollsters who don't rely on a voting list such as Quinnipiac to know how often people have voted in the past.
The shift to more pro-Republican results among likely voters isn't surprising, but has to be disappointing to Democrats.
Historically, the likely voter electorate in Texas is less friendly to Democrats than the registered voter electorate.
The shift appeared to impact other questions as well. President Donald Trump's approval rating is up 3 points from last month in the Quinnipiac poll of Texas, despite his approval rating falling nationally during the same period.........................................
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