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CincyDem

(6,385 posts)
Mon Sep 24, 2018, 12:19 PM Sep 2018

Trump going after Rod is his Plan B. Today's actions tell me Trump has bailed on Kavanaugh.



Plan A - seat Kavanaugh immediately. When Gamble v. US show up in October, know that you've got a 5-4 advantage. Without Kavanaugh quickly, this'll be 4-4 and the appellate decision will stand. Trump needs the appellate decision overturned and that can only happen with 9. Gamble is a case about allowing state level prosecutions of crimes found to be "not guilty" at the federal level. Recall, that's an issue in NY because of the NY laws...this case would make it the law of the land that states CAN NOT prosecute following a federal prosecution. This negates some, if not all, of Mueller's strategy to distribute indictment supporting information to the states and strengthens Trumps pardon powers, particular vis-a-vis family.

Plan B - shut down the investigation. If he can't constrain it to a pardonable venue, then he's got to kill it and putting Rod on the street is the only way to start that process. Granted, there's still SDNY and EDVA exposure but that's manageable once he's got his arms around Mueller via a new Deputy AG.

The only question here is fire vs. resign. Fire eliminates the Vacancies Act and Trump is stuck with the Solicitor General - a life long Justice guy who likes expansive presidential powers but probably isn't a fan of obstruction. Resign let's Trump put anyone he wants in the position from the congressional confirmation level. I assume it would have to be an attorney but I'm sure he's got enough of them around that he can find one who would say "yes boss" to anything.

That's why I think he's bailed. Now, he might hang on to him for a while but he's not sure enough in confirmation today to leave his family's future in his hands.

IMHO.
8 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Trump going after Rod is his Plan B. Today's actions tell me Trump has bailed on Kavanaugh. (Original Post) CincyDem Sep 2018 OP
Trump is criminally stupid C_U_L8R Sep 2018 #1
I'm not sure Roberts would vote that way. MoonRiver Sep 2018 #2
Yeah - I agree. It's possible that this could go 5-3 w/o Kavanaugh... CincyDem Sep 2018 #5
Did not know about Gamble v. US dhol82 Sep 2018 #3
Here's a summary of Gamble v. US LastLiberal in PalmSprings Sep 2018 #6
One thing we don't know. PoorMonger Sep 2018 #4
K&R smirkymonkey Sep 2018 #7
Let's see if DJT keeps up his record of..."Well, he denies it." LOL libdem4life Sep 2018 #8

CincyDem

(6,385 posts)
5. Yeah - I agree. It's possible that this could go 5-3 w/o Kavanaugh...
Mon Sep 24, 2018, 12:35 PM
Sep 2018


...but if you're Trump, sure feels like you want Kavanaugh in the conference room arguing with Roberts to "make the case".

What this really comes down to is having an advocate in the conference...and between Gorsuch and Kavanaugh, maybe they persuade Roberts.

But you're right - no such thing as a sure thing among the big 9.
6. Here's a summary of Gamble v. US
Mon Sep 24, 2018, 12:53 PM
Sep 2018
https://www.theusconstitution.org/litigation/gamble-v-united-states/

In Gamble v. United States, the Supreme Court is considering whether the Double Jeopardy Clause of the Fifth Amendment, which prohibits any person from being prosecuted for the same offense more than once, bars a federal prosecution for a criminal offense when the defendant has already been prosecuted for the same offense in state court.

* * *

Case Summary:

In 2015, a police officer in Mobile, Alabama pulled Terance Martez Gamble over for a broken tail light on his car. During the stop, the officer discovered both a gun and marijuana paraphernalia in Gamble’s car. Gamble, who had been convicted of second-degree felony robbery seven years earlier, was barred from owning a firearm. The state of Alabama prosecuted Gamble for illegal possession of a firearm, and he served one year in prison. Subsequently, the federal government also charged Gamble with illegal possession of a firearm in relation to the same 2015 incident.

Gamble asked the U.S. District Court to dismiss his federal indictment on the ground that it violated his Fifth Amendment protection from Double Jeopardy. The District Court ruled that the dual-sovereignty exception to the Double Jeopardy Clause, which permits a second prosecution for the same offense by a different “sovereign,” permitted the federal case to proceed. Gamble appealed to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit, and that court affirmed the lower court’s decision. Gamble, who is now serving time in federal prison, asked the Supreme Court to reconsider its past decisions allowing successive prosecutions for the same offense by different sovereigns (i.e., the “dual-sovereignty doctrine”). CAC, along with the Cato Institute, filed a friend-of-the-court brief in support of Gamble, urging the Supreme Court to grant review, and the Court agreed to hear Gamble’s case.

==========================

So this is another reason for Donnie Two Scoops to want Kavanaugh on the SCOTUS. The first we're familiar with: Kavanaugh has stated you can't even investigate a sitting president. If Gamble is reversed, the law of the land becomes this: If you are found guilty (or plead guilty) in Federal court the state can't try you for the same crime. In a Federal case, there'd be nothing blocking the prez from using his pardon power to clear the board. That would protect IQ45's family and Manafort, who would no longer have any motive to cooperate.

If we win the Senate, the seat should remain open until 2020 under the McConnell Rule. (Unless Merrick Garland is appointed, of course.)

PoorMonger

(844 posts)
4. One thing we don't know.
Mon Sep 24, 2018, 12:31 PM
Sep 2018

It could be that Mueller has more indictments ready to drop in the possible firing of DAG will trigger him to show more of his cards before Trump can make the next move.

 

libdem4life

(13,877 posts)
8. Let's see if DJT keeps up his record of..."Well, he denies it." LOL
Mon Sep 24, 2018, 01:58 PM
Sep 2018

And we all thought he was biased against women...come to find out it's anyone, of either sex, who disagrees with him. (especially, perhaps, those who tell the truth?????) (Edit...BTW, how are the meetings with all those heads of state you're trying to kick to your America First Curb?)

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