General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThe GOP's Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws -- And Soon
Brett Kavanaugh has never been a popular Supreme Court nominee and hes probably becoming more unpopular still following allegations earlier this month by Christine Blasey Ford that Kavanaugh had sexually assaulted her when they both were in high school. No one this unpopular has ever been confirmed to the Supreme Court; the only previous nominees who polled as poorly as Kavanaugh either had their names withdrawn (Harriet Miers) or lost their confirmation vote (Robert Bork). And all of this polling was taken before at least two other accusations surfaced of potential sexual misconduct involving Kavanaugh1 and before Ford and Kavanaughs testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee, which is scheduled for Thursday.
President Trump and Congressional Republicans are not afraid to take unpopular actions in pursuit of their ideological goals. Last year, they spent many months trying and failing to pass a repeal of Obamacare, even though those efforts were extremely unpopular. And they passed a tax bill that was highly unpopular at the time of its passage, although its numbers have since improved some. The Supreme Court is at least as much of a priority for Republicans.
The difference on Kavanaugh is that there are several other conservative nominees who could potentially replace him and who may have been better picks in the first place. In other words, you would think Trump and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell have better options than rolling the dice with Kavanaugh. Amy Coney Barrett, for example, a judge on the 7th Circuit and one of Trumps reported finalists when Kavanaugh was chosen, has several advantages from the GOPs point of view. Shed potentially be more conservative than Kavanaugh, at least on issues such as abortion; shes already been confirmed (to her circuit seat) by the current Senate; and it might not hurt Republicans to choose a woman when the four conservatives on the current Supreme Court are all men.
Barrett also isnt facing several accusations of sexual misconduct, as Kavanaugh is.
But theres a midterm coming up in just six weeks. And theres about a 3 in 10 chance that Republicans lose the Senate, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast. Could Republicans really get Barrett or another nominee confirmed before then? And if not, could they confirm her in the so-called lame-duck session after the midterms but before the new Congress meets on Jan. 3.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/
Mike Nelson
(9,960 posts)
better picks. But this one sends the message to women: "Back off, you exist to please men." So, they would love to get this one thru...
regnaD kciN
(26,044 posts)Id say its more like lots of other nominees would enact the G.O.P.s social agenda, but only Kavanaugh was sure to provide rulings that allow Trump to shut down Russiagate and remain untouched.
Mike Nelson
(9,960 posts)
was to rule in Trump's favor. But, I also think a lot of them knew - Mitch McConnell is one.
NewJeffCT
(56,828 posts)would be to let the charges fester, have the GOP embarrass themselves in questioning Ford (and Ramirez) and have the votes leak way until a few weeks from now when Trump withdraws the nomination. GOP is dispirited close to the election, Dems energized over a rare win.