FL-26: Carlos Curbelo moves from Lean Republican to Toss Up

Over the summer, Curbelo looked in surprisingly good position to defy a "blue wave" in a 69 percent Hispanic district that voted for Hillary Clinton 57 percent to 41 percent. The Cuban-American Republican hasn't been shy about his support for immigration reform and a carbon tax, or calling the president's remarks in Helsinki "unacceptable" and "deeply alarming." Now, both parties acknowledge the race has tightened.

Democratic former FIU official and fundraising consultant Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who lost a state senate race in 2016, isn't the most polished or dynamic candidate. She lost her father to gun violence in Ecuador, but has so far made healthcare her campaign's centerpiece. She and the DCCC have outspent Curbelo on Miami television, pummeling his vote for the GOP healthcare bill as proof he's hiding behind a moderate facade.

A mid-September New York Times/Siena Poll found Curbelo leading 47 percent to 44 percent, and new polls by GBA Strategies (for the DCCC) and GQRR Research (for Mucarsel-Powell) show the Democrat pulling into the lead by a point. Republicans claim these polls are under-sampling Cuban voters, obscuring Curbelo's real lead. Either way, there's little doubt Democrats' heavy spending has taken a toll and made this race closer.


https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-rating-changes-eight-more-gop-seats-move-towards-democrats


DEBBIE MURCASEL POWELL





https://debbiemucarselpowell.com