KS-03: Kevin Yoder moves from Toss Up to Lean Democratic

Last week, the NRCC canceled $1 million of its remaining $1.8 million ad buy for Yoder, an admission that the incumbent is now trailing. This highly professional suburban Kansas City seat voted for Hillary Clinton 47 percent to 46 percent in 2016, and the unpopularity of former Gov. Sam Brownback and GOP gubernatorial candidate Kris Kobach compound a poor national environment for suburban Kansas Republicans.

Democratic attorney Sharice Davids announced this week that she raised a record-shattering $2.7 million last quarter, outraising Yoder by $1.6 million. Davids, a Native American, lesbian and former MMA fighter who was raised by a single mother in nearby Leavenworth, has an unconventional background to say the least. But so far, she appears to be both energizing Democratic donors and attracting independent voters.

Republicans will no doubt seize on the time Davids has spent outside the state, including attending law school at Cornell University and her activism on Indian Reservations across the country (she's a member of the Ho-Chunk Nation in Wisconsin), as evidence she's an elitist with her own agenda. But Davids expressed skepticism towards single-payer healthcare and still beat a Bernie Sanders campaign worker in the primary.

The bigger surprise was in the August GOP primary: Yoder took an underwhelming 68 percent against two opponents who hardly spent any money. At least one Kansas observer attributes his weak showing to blowback against a late July amendment he sponsored in the 2019 appropriations bill designed to overturn Attorney General Jeff Session's new policy on asylum claims. Breitbart described it as "catch-and-release language."

Davids may not be the type of well-established Johnson County moderate that has proven a winning formula for Democrats here in the past. But in 2018, that may matter less. A mid-September New York Times/Siena poll found Davids leading 51 percent to 43 percent, roughly matching most private surveys. Yoder joins the Lean Democratic column.


https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-rating-changes-eight-more-gop-seats-move-towards-democrats


SHARICE DAVIDS





https://www.shariceforcongress.com/home