MI-11: Open Republican seat moves from Tossup to Lean Democratic

As Democrat Gretchen Whitmer has opened up a lead in the governor's race, Republicans privately acknowledge Democrat Haley Stevens is the favorite over Republican Lena Epstein for this open suburban Detroit seat. Republicans drew the seat to their advantage in 2011, but it voted for President Trump 49 percent to 45 percent and has by far the highest percentage of college graduates in the state.

Epstein, who co-owns her family's auto lubrication dynasty, served as Trump's 2016 Michigan campaign chair and dropped down from the Senate race to this House contest last year. She loaned her campaign $990,000, allowing her to win the primary with 31 percent. But this isn't a hardcore Trump electorate, and Democrats cite her Fox News appearances in support of the GOP's healthcare repeal bill as evidence she's out of touch.

Stevens, 33, won a crowded Democratic primary with 27 percent plays up her role as chief of staff to the Obama Auto Task Force. Republicans will seize on her primary endorsement from Hillary Clinton, and a new America First Action ad morphs Clinton and former Gov. Jennifer Granholm's faces into Stevens's. But it speaks volumes that other GOP groups, including the CLF and NRCC, haven't invested here.

Each side is highlighting their opponent's close association with an unpopular 2016 nominee, but unfortunately for Epstein, this year is shaping up as a referendum on Trump. The race moves to the Lean Democratic column.


https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-rating-changes-eight-more-gop-seats-move-towards-democrats


HALEY STEVENS





https://haleystevensforcongress.com