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The giant blue swing
https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/opinions/wp/2018/10/08/the-giant-blue-swingBy Jennifer Rubin
October 8, 2018 at 11:00 AM
Politicians and pundits favor wave/tsunami midterm metaphors these days but, perhaps, we should talk about the swing, the pendulum. The Post-Schar School poll of voters in 69 battleground House races shows a 19-point swing for Democrats — from +15 for Republicans in 2016 to +4 for Democrats this year:
Of the 69 districts included in the survey, 63 are held by Republicans and just six are held by Democrats. [President] Trump carried 48 of these districts and Hillary Clinton won the other 21. In the districts won by Trump, likely voters are split 48 percent for the Democratic candidate and 47 percent for the Republican. In the districts won by Clinton, Democrats enjoy a clear advantage, 53 percent to 43 percent.
Voters’ preferences amount to a referendum on President Trump. “In the survey, 91 percent of those who approve of the president’s performance also are supporting the GOP candidate in their district. Meanwhile, 88 percent of those who disapprove of Trump’s performance are backing the Democratic candidate.”
The pendulum has swung some 19 points, in large part, because women have abandoned the Republican Party. “Women are driving Democratic support in the battleground districts, favoring the party’s candidates by 54 percent to 40 percent. . . . White women with college degrees back the Democratic candidate in their districts by 62 percent to 35 percent. White women without college degrees tilt toward the Republicans running in their districts by 49 percent to 45 percent.” By comparison, white women with college degrees — nationally, not simply in battleground states — favored Clinton (51 percent to 44 percent) in 2016.
October 8, 2018 at 11:00 AM
Politicians and pundits favor wave/tsunami midterm metaphors these days but, perhaps, we should talk about the swing, the pendulum. The Post-Schar School poll of voters in 69 battleground House races shows a 19-point swing for Democrats — from +15 for Republicans in 2016 to +4 for Democrats this year:
Of the 69 districts included in the survey, 63 are held by Republicans and just six are held by Democrats. [President] Trump carried 48 of these districts and Hillary Clinton won the other 21. In the districts won by Trump, likely voters are split 48 percent for the Democratic candidate and 47 percent for the Republican. In the districts won by Clinton, Democrats enjoy a clear advantage, 53 percent to 43 percent.
Voters’ preferences amount to a referendum on President Trump. “In the survey, 91 percent of those who approve of the president’s performance also are supporting the GOP candidate in their district. Meanwhile, 88 percent of those who disapprove of Trump’s performance are backing the Democratic candidate.”
The pendulum has swung some 19 points, in large part, because women have abandoned the Republican Party. “Women are driving Democratic support in the battleground districts, favoring the party’s candidates by 54 percent to 40 percent. . . . White women with college degrees back the Democratic candidate in their districts by 62 percent to 35 percent. White women without college degrees tilt toward the Republicans running in their districts by 49 percent to 45 percent.” By comparison, white women with college degrees — nationally, not simply in battleground states — favored Clinton (51 percent to 44 percent) in 2016.
