**Potential Democrat Pickup Alert** NJ 11 Sherrill (Democrat) 48% Webber (Trumper) 44%

West Long Branch, NJ – Democrat Mikie Sherrill maintains her lead over Republican Jay Webber in New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District, according to the latest Monmouth University Poll. Little has changed in the state of the race since Monmouth polled it in June. NJ-11 voters are divided on President Donald Trump and hold a negative view of the GOP tax plan passed by Congress last year – issues that have been baked into the campaign since the start of the cycle. The recent Supreme Court nomination process has not noticeably moved this race in either direction.

Sherrill currently holds a 48% to 44% lead over Webber among likely voters using Monmouth’s standard midterm turnout model, with 1% supporting another candidate and 6% undecided. The race stands at 50% for Sherrill and 43% for Webber using a model that incorporates a turnout surge in Democratic precincts. A model projecting lower overall turnout shows Sherrill with a 48% to 45% edge over Webber. These results are in line with where the race stood in Monmouth’s June poll, except there are now fewer undecided voters. At that time, Sherrill was ahead by 4 points in the standard model (44%-40%), with 15% undecided. She also led by 6 points in the Democratic surge model (45%-39%) and by 3 points in the low turnout model (44%-41%). All leads in the current likely voter models are within the margin of error for the poll.


https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_nj_100918/