General Discussion

malaise

(269,023 posts) Tue Oct 9, 2018, 09:42 PM Oct 2018

Must Read Update from Hurricane from the Tallahasee Democrat

https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/2018/10/09/what-left-likely-landfall-swath-coastline-between-panama-city-beach-and-apalachicola-early-afternoon/1582705002/

There remains more warm water with depth that is typical in the northeastern Gulf, and the dry continental airmass that often wraps into eastern Gulf storms is unlikely to significantly disrupt the core prior to landfall.

This means limited or no weakening prior to reaching the coast. The NHC forecast of Category 3 landfall intensity remains the most likely case. Sustained winds can make quick jumps up or down, so you should not be overly invested in the exact landfall intensity.

Even if Michael were to weaken, there is no realistic scenario in which it will not be a powerful and destructive storm for the Big Bend.

If you followed our coverage Tuesday, you’ll recall that I laid odds on impact outcomes in Leon County proper along the lines of four historical storms: Irma, Hermine, Kate, and the Great Hurricane of 1851.

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Must Read Update from Hurricane from the Tallahasee Democrat (Original Post) malaise Oct 2018 OP

The Big Bend GusBob Oct 2018 #1

The best part of this storm is that it will not stay around somas you wrote malaise Oct 2018 #2

It will still devastate the small communities along the coast csziggy Oct 2018 #3

GusBob

(7,286 posts)

1. The Big Bend

Reply to malaise (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2018, 10:11 PM

Oct 2018

If I recall correctly the coastal areas of the big bend are not that populated nor developed. Remote and desolate even. I spent sometime up to Horseshoe Beach ( there is no beach) and as I recall it was just a remote backwater village surrounded by sand scrub islands and salt marshes.

I reckon if it were to come ashore anywhere that would be the best space. It's moving brisk so hopefully not much chance of flooding inshore from heavy rains

One thing though, the water out in the gulf is warm and shallow there. I reckon that will muck up the surge

I can't recall a hurricane hitting that part of Florida before. In the 90s a freak March storm came of the gulf a wiped out Horseshoe I had to help my buddy repair his fishing camp

malaise

(269,023 posts)

2. The best part of this storm is that it will not stay around somas you wrote

Reply to GusBob (Reply #1)

Tue Oct 9, 2018, 10:14 PM

Oct 2018

There is less chance for flooding. Thanks for the info..

csziggy

(34,136 posts)

3. It will still devastate the small communities along the coast

Reply to GusBob (Reply #1)

Tue Oct 9, 2018, 11:50 PM

Oct 2018

Apalachicola, St. Marks, Panacea, Port St. Joe, and so many others will be seriously damaged. They just got finished restoring the St. Marks lighthouse in the national reserve. Just because there are not large populations does not mean historic areas will not be lost.

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