The Real Blue Wave Could Come in the States

I expect net gains for Democrats in governorships of between six and a dozen, and a pickup for Democrats of between 400 and 650 state legislative seats, more than the average midterm loss of 375 seats for the party in the White House. These state elections are the most under-reported story in politics, with control of chambers likely tipping from Republicans to Democrats. Three-quarters of the governorships and four-fifths of the state legislative seats are up in these midterm cycles. Remember that with the inability or unwillingness of Washington to deal with so many problems, the resulting vacuum has given states considerably more power on many fronts. Then consider the massive gains on the state level for Republicans during the eight years of the Obama presidency, and how much of that ground could slip away.

Republicans now hold 33 governorships to just 16 for Democrats (plus one independent in Alaska). The GOP has 26 governorships up this year, Democrats only have nine. Republicans have 12 open governorships, Democrats only four. Republicans have 11 governorships that The Cook Political Report rates as Toss-Up or worse for the GOP, Democrats have one. The governorship of Illinois looks gone for Republicans, Michigan looks like it is slipping away from the GOP, while Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, and Wisconsin look headed in a similar direction.

Republicans control both the state Senate and House chambers in 25 states, Democrats hold both bodies in just seven states, 17 are split (plus Nebraska is both unicameral and non-partisan). The Republican dominance on the state level, much of it gained in the 2010 and 2014 midterm elections, has resulted in very conservative policy changes on issues ranging from abortion, to Medicaid expansion (or contraction), to voting access. Given that the U.S. Senate and House are likely to be closely divided no matter what happens in November and President Trump will still wield a veto pen, it is in the state capitols that major policy changes could occur in 2019 and 2020, not in Washington.

To say that Republicans are facing a challenging year in the states is an understatement; one prominent Republican pollster this week privately referred to the state legislative election scene as a “killing field” for Republicans. According to Tim Storey of the National Conference of State Legislatures, a dozen state legislative chambers are toss-ups, eight currently controlled by the GOP, three at least theoretically controlled by Democrats. The Republican-controlled House and Senate chambers are toss-ups in Arizona and New Hampshire, as are their Senates in Colorado, Maine, and Wisconsin, as well as the Alaskan House.

While technically, Democrats have a majority in the New York Senate, the chamber is effectively run by a GOP-controlled coalition, and it too is a toss-up. Democrats have just two chambers in such a position, the Nevada and Washington state Senates. In Connecticut, the battle over the tied Senate is a toss-up as well. But if the wave is big enough, according to Storey, the Florida Senate, both the House and Senate in Iowa, and the House chambers in Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania also come into play. Republicans also have toss-up chambers in Alaska, both the House and Senate in Arizona, the Colorado, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin Senates.



https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/real-blue-wave-could-come-states