.

Moon
https://www.timeanddate.com/moon/phases/

Tides schedule
https://www.tide-forecast.com/locations/Gulf-Shores-ICWW-Alabama/tides/latest

Still, the projected 14 foot surge will be devastating.

And if Michael doesn't weaken sufficiently, some weather reports are saying it could affect the coasts South Carolina.

Also, a storm system heading east could meet remnants of Michael in Tenn. Colder air will meet warmer air, so keep posted on potential tornado activity.

This is list of weather warnings for southeast US

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=ffc&wwa=hazardous%20weather%20outlook

Right on the beach in Panama City.

Loved the red fish I got there.

This hurricane is going to be devastating to it, undoubtedly.

But Fort Walton and Panama City are my home away from home. I'm sending good thoughts to the people there and my favorite businesses be spared

Link to tweet

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I flew to Florida right over the whole Gulf Coast shortly after Katrina. I could see the destruction. Literally only house foundations were left for a good distance inland from the beaches for miles. It was shocking.

Katrina had nearly a 28 foot storm surge.

Michaels storm surge is predicted to be half that height, at 14 feet. Still bad for the coasts.

Hope everyone is safe.

NOAA Hurricane Michael updates
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

12:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 10
Location: 29.9°N 85.7°W
Moving: NNE at 14 mph
Min pressure: 919 mb
Max

Apalachicola. I have a really bad feeling about that area, I hope I'm wrong but I think they'll get the worst of it.

for 300 miles east and south Gulf Coast could see huge storm surges.

Flood potential map from NOAA, some areas go far inland.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/152003.shtml?wsurge#contents

I hope they all evacuated.

So your concern is spot on

And per some earlier news reports, there were still some dozens of people in Mexico Beach, and some hundreds still in Panama City.

In case any are following and could find safer ground

. . . and apparently they did:

Link to tweet

1:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 10
Location: 30.0°N 85.5°W
Moving: NNE at 14 mph
Min pressure: 919 mb
Max sustained: 155 mph

High tide not until 11PM

How long to storm surges last?

Hopefully it has peaked, this will be one of the 4 strongest hurricanes to ever hit the US.

000
WTNT64 KNHC 101652
TCUAT4

Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1200 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...12 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...EYEWALL OF MICHAEL COMING ASHORE ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BETWEEN ST. VINCENT ISLAND AND PANAMA CITY...
...LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE AND CATASTROPHIC WINDS MOVING
ONSHORE...

With the landfall of Michael's eye imminent, everyone in the
landfall area is reminded not to venture out into the relative calm
of the eye, as hazardous winds will increase very quickly as the eye
passes!

A weather station at the Gulf County Emergency Operations Center in
Port St. Joe recently reported a wind gust of 106 mph (171 km/h).
A Weatherflow station is St. Andrew Bay recently reported a
sustained wind of 62 mph (100 km/h) and a wind gust of 77 mph (124
km/h). The Apalachicola airport recently reported sustained winds
of 63 mph (102 km/h) with a gust of 89 mph (143 km/h).

Water levels continue to rise quickly along the coast of the Florida
Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at
Apalachicola recently reported over 6.5 feet of inundation above
ground level.


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 85.7W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WSW OF MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...919 MB...27.14 INCHES

Last edited Wed Oct 10, 2018, 01:49 PM - Edit history (1)

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since Opal in 1995. What about Ivan in 2004? Pretty certain that hit the pan handle. Isn't Pensacola considered on the pan handle? I remember that I-10 bridge over Escambia Bay was destroyed by that hurricane. I wonder why that wasn't notable. I think that area may have also been impacted by Frances and Jeanne that same year, but maybe less so. Ivan was a cat 5 at some point, but I don't know what it was when it hit Pensacola. Maybe it was a 3. I guess a 3 is no big thing. LOL

Will have to chase down a track map when I have a moment.

Recent data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to
near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts.