Not saying it won't happen, or that it isn't headed toward that, but although the cited article is pretty accurate, the curve inversions don't happen far ahead of recessionary turns very often.
(Sometimes through extrinsic influences like in the early oughts when the housing thing, propped up by cheating on the investment quality ratings. That economy was headed toward recession by several other indicators but the curve didn't invert until right before everything went south.)
That's why some economists don't find it a useful predictor because it's too easy to be manipulated and can happen just before a crash, making it of limited value as an investment harbinger.
The causal influences are myriad and are weighted differently based upon other intrinsic factors within the economy, such as national debt (or more accurately the rate of change in debt), resource diversions (natural disasters disrupt new housing markets as so much construction becomes repair work), etc.
So, it's a little tricky to see the change because it happens kind of quickly and when it does occur to an extent that it is really bad news, it could be past the tipping point and there is no solution but to wait out the rough patch and hold off for recovery.
I haven't done a detailed econometric model around this, but i think we're seeing rising rates because the debt is rising so fast and there is still uncertainty around the housing and energy markets. That plus speculators start to get nervous when a market has risen steadily for so long. Remember the current strong DJIA started 4 years before Obama left office. Six years makes speculators nervous.
Me, i am no speculator. And since i'm nearing retirement my bond to equity numbers are at 3:4 which is what the experts say is about right for my age.
We shall see.
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