We were up in the last election too.

Ignore the polls - GOTV!

I learned my lesson with the polls in 2016....get out and vote!! I felt pretty good about 2016 until the day off...just had a knot in my stomach.

I want to have kids some day, but not while this admin is destroying the country.

They stole the elections

And ferry others to the polls, too.

if they could use it against a D. Look what they did with totally made-up Swiftboating, and this story is REAL. They've got to be SLAMMED with this. Trump and Kushner--lock them up!

And seriously wondering do pollsters factor it in at any point.

I have been a Dem voter education volunteer who has been working the polls for Dem party since 2004.

He also had hillary at 90%. Yeah, she really did win. But he also had forecast us to win the house and very close in the senate (much closer than it ended up).

It's all black magic and really, a money chase. Really. The media uses the polls for profit, not science.

So please, save the high fives until weds after election day. Until then, we are five points down with the wind at our back. Push, carry, kick, drag, every smart voter you can find to the polls.

After Comey announced the email investigation was reopened. It was 60-40. On election dat it was essentially tied

Anybody that was following the 538 podcasts knew that we were looking at just better than even odds. At the end the model was showing a significantly higher chance of Clinton winning the popular vote while losing the electoral college than normal. In the podcast they said multiple times that the margin was within a slight polling error changing the result. People that got mad at 538 or the model didn't listen to what Nate was saying or bother to understand what the model was telling us. People look at a 70% chance and think we're sure to win. 70% means that for every 10 times the model runs the Republicans win 3 times. That's a lot! It's not Nate's fault. That's the way probabilities work. In 2008 and 2012 we all loved 538 and Nate Silver. But in 2008 and 2012 the odds were overwhelmingly in our favor.

The general consensus was “fuck Nate silver look at the Princeton poll at 99% we can’t lose! Nate is a Debbie Downer!”

I remember gulping when Nate said Trump has about the same 1 in 4 shot The Cubs had. Ruh ro...

Go back and read those articles within the final 10 days or so, or watch the televised appearances he made. Nate broke down the variables perfectly, saying Hillary was favored but it was shaky favoritism based on the electoral college potentially tipping against her if we had small polling error in the pivotal states. He repeatedly emphasized that any type of polling error like that would probably be in the same direction, and not mixed. Nate detailed that Hillary was not close to Obama's 2012 level of actual favoritism, despite similar national poll margins.

Nate Silver would have been a disgrace to his profession if he had asserted that Trump was the favorite. But somehow people love to clutch the result as absolute so Nate is condemned and mocked for 2016, from posters on both sides of the political spectrum.

Anyway, I check this 538 House model at least 4-5 times each day. It is vital to keep it closer to 80% than 70% or lower.

Didn't Silver have us up in 3 key states. More and more people don't use landlines and the response rates have dropped significantly since polling.

Not only that Nate Silver was dead wrong when it came to the Republican party. I want to see more analysis then a lot of the speculation I see at 538.

Silver at least did admit he acted too much like a pundit, the problem is he still does and that is the trend I don't like 538 heading to.

-fly in an airplane
-walk on the beach during a hurricane
-swim in shark infested waters
-walk in a crime ridden neighborhood at night

By the day of the election, it inched back up. It dropped to 28% chance Trump, 72% Hillary on Election Day itself.

Even after Comeygate, 538 NEVER had the race tied. And, on the morning of Election Day, Nate had HRC's odds right around where they have us now.

but these polla do not include voter fraud by repubs, unexpected purges from registration rolls, hacking, etc. We will need good margins in every close election to overcome the interference which is expected to increase from 2016.

... largely due to the Rethugs cheating to make sure that their seats are all safe this year and putting nearly all of ours up for election.

I highly doubt that.

Just curious if they do.

But 50/50 on the Senate. People scared about a 2016 repeat are just being paranoid. Either way it will stop tRump in his teacks.

50-50 is very generous. I don't see it happening without at least picking up both TN or TX, since we'll likely lose one in ND.

OTOH if Chump had some kind of magic it would have revealed itself in all the elections between 2016 and now.


Occam's Razor-Folks don't much like him or his party.