Same as Kobach.

That's what matters.

We were in 1992.

Sure we got cheated in a few, but we WERE and ARE the MAJORITY.

Any questions?

and most of these elections are in red states

How are you making those assumptions? By Presidential vote? By vote for the House? If it is either of those I would wonder where you are getting your numbers.

The Republicans looked really bad after 2012 by trying to (unskew) the polls. Remember the infamous unskewedpolls.com or something like that? Texas, Tennessee and North Dakota are just very red states. Each one of them is even redder than the next. All we need to do is GET OUT THE VOTE and hope for the best. Phil Bredesen is the best -- and only -- Democratic candidate that has a chance in Tennessee. He won every single county in Tennessee when he ran for re-election as Governor but that was back in 2006. Look at how he is struggling against a really weak candidate in Marsha Blackburn. There are probably just was too many conservatives in Tennessee now to overcome the Democratic, independent, and even moderate Republican support he is getting. I am still holding out tiny bit of hope in this race though.

I still believe Bredesen can win. Just like when he was elected Governor he needed Republican votes. It may be anecdotal, but I know some staunch Republicans who are voting for him. Hopefully it will be enough.

I was in Nashville a couple times this summer and moderate Republicans LOVE HIM. Nashville would not be the city it is today without him. As you know redstateblues, he brought the Titans, Predators, Nissan and VW to that city. He completely resurrected Nashville while he was Mayor and Governor. Central Tennessee owes a lot to him. The rural areas will not remain loyal to him, but hopefully he can run up the score in Nashville and Memphis. I always thought this race would be close and I continue to believe that, but I can't believe how he has been hurt by Kavanaugh. I think and hope he can still recover.

Obviously that oversamples Republicans. Texas has a staggering number of new registrations this year. No poll can capture that.

There's also the enthusiasm gap. For Cruz, it's tepid at best.

Are everywhere. Bumper stickers as well. The young people are fired up. Kiddo tells me Beto has stirred up alot of excitement and they are raring to cast their vote. First day of early voting for Tx is 22nd.

There are several questions that get asked that combine to evaluate likelihood.

The polls get a bit off in TX

I do think there was a slight Kavanaugh bump but it is already fading

Lots of Dem yard signs, but a huge billboard in my neighborhood was funded
For the creepy mini me orangeturd Martin Daniels, house rep. Renee Hoyos has great support, she would be phenomenal as a house rep and has great issues for health care, she is sharp.
Hoping for the best for Hoyos. Bredesen is a great fighting chance, IMO.

I'm on the ground in Texas. I see Beto with all the enthusiasm and that CNN town hall is nothing but going to help him and show how Cruz is a big chicken.

Stop believing the polls and wait until the 6th. VOTE!

Vote early and encourage others to vote

I'm doing my part

well if Republicans can get these fake polls to the public and voters believe them and then decide ..what the hell no sense voting,iits already decided, this is the Republican way...and strategy

I see Beto signs everywhere, and I see absolute forests of assorted GOP signs, but I don't see many Ted Cruz signs. The frank truth is that almost nobody wants to vote for Ted Cruz. Nobody wants to admit they're voting for Ted Cruz, either. But in this state, enough people will go in the booth and vote straight-ticket GOP and tell themselves, "I didn't vote for Ted Cruz, I just voted Republican" that he's probably going to win again.

It's not a sane state, so that's no knock on Beto. He's an awesome guy running against a complete slimeball, and he's virtually the only candidate for statewide office with a real shot at winning, even in the Trump era. I just think there are too many dumbass old white rednecks in Texas for a decent human being to win in less than a perfect storm. This is probably that storm, so it's still possible. And the worst-case scenario is that he caused the GOP to spend stupid amounts of money defending a seat which should never have been anywhere near in play, given an even marginally functional human being in the seat.

I tend to expect the state to be genuinely purple somewhere around 2028 or so. Anything before that is pure gravy. I'd take it, but I'm not counting on it and I'll believe it when I see it.

Texas does not have a particularly old voting population. Only 15% in the 2016 exit poll were 65+, compared to 16% nationally.

I don't mean to be morbid about this but our prospects are best in states with the heavily red Silent Generation born 1928-1945 comprising a huge portion of the state's demographics. Arizona is light years the most logical next state to flip because not only are the younger voters 30-44 already voting Democratic in that state (47-41 Hillary in Arizona compared to 48-45 for Trump in Texas), but Arizona has 25% of its electorate at 65 and older.

Given the increasing minority population and the influx from other states, I don't think it's out of the question. It's definitely one of those things which has been about to happen for so long that it's reasonable to wonder if it will ever actually happen.

I don't answer calls if I don't know who they are from. I don't know anyone else who does. So how do these polls get a reliable sample?

Median outcome

House - 225 D
Senate 48 D