personally I see same for the Senate.

stated. But I rather see democrats up 11 on it than down 11.

especially in a nation-wide poll during a mid-term. During a mid-term there's no electoral college to consider.

What is going on where?

I used to rely on Nate Silver for this stuff, but he let me down in 2016.

Which can offer insight into which side is more motivated to vote.

If we will really win the nat'l House vote by 13 points it will be a wipeout, all the gerrymandering in the world notwithstanding. I really think 8 points is a more realistic goal.

Fingers crossed.

I am expecting between 6.5 and 8

Very difficult to believe all these posts in thread after thread questioning the significance of the national generic margin and what it means to the outcome.

That's like people who won't he happy if you tell them their favorite NFL team will have a +100 point differential at the end of the season. After all...that can be 14 losses by 1 point apiece and two victories by 57 apiece.

I'll take my chances.

Will Democrats Catch a Wave?
The Generic Ballot Model and the 2018 U.S. House Elections

Alan Abramowitz

This article presents a simple model that uses results of generic ballot polling to predict the outcome of the 2018 elections to the U.S. House of Representatives. The “generic ballot” refers to a question included in numerous national polls asking voters which party they favor in the House elections without providing the names of the candidates. When combined with two other variables—the party of the president and the number of seats held by each party prior to the election—this model produces very accurate predictions of seat swing in House midterm elections. The model currently predicts a strong likelihood of a Democratic takeover of the House.

For the 18 midterm elections since World War II, the results of the generic ballot test are highly correlated with the party division of the national popular vote for the House (r=.82). The generic ballot also can accurately predict seat swing in midterm elections when incorporated in a statistical forecasting model (Moore and Saad 1997; McGhee and Baldassare 2004; Abramowitz 2010; Abramowitz 2014). In this article, I use results of a simple three-variable model including the generic ballot to provide conditional forecasts of seat swing in the 2018 midterm election.


...

I wish I could link it. It's in a google doc.

to make up for Repub fuckery....

"Because of maps designed to favor Republicans, Democrats would need to win by a nearly unprecedented nationwide margin in 2018 to gain control of the House of Representatives. To attain a bare majority, Democrats would likely have to win the national popular vote by nearly 11 points. Neither Democrats nor Republicans have won by such an overwhelming margin in decades. Even a strong blue wave would crash against a wall of gerrymandered maps."

https://www.brennancenter.org/publication/extreme-gerrymandering-2018-midterm