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babylonsister

(171,090 posts) Sat Oct 20, 2018, 08:00 PM Oct 2018

Why Forecasts May Be Underestimating Democrats

https://politicalwire.com/2018/10/20/why-forecasts-may-be-underestimating-democrats/

Why Forecasts May Be Underestimating Democrats
October 20, 2018 at 2:44 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard

Nate Silver: “The fundraising numbers are so good for Democrats — and so bad for Republicans — that it’s hard to know quite what to make of them. From a modeling standpoint, we’re extrapolating from years in which fundraising was relatively even, or from when one party had a modest edge, into an environment where Democrats suddenly have a 2-1 advantage in fundraising in competitive races. Moreover, this edge comes despite the fact that a large number of these competitive races feature Republican incumbents (incumbents usually have an easier time raising money than challengers) and that most of them are in red terrain.”

“If Democrats beat their projections on Nov. 6 — say, they win 63 House seats, equalling the number that Republicans won in 2010, an unlikely-but-not-impossible scenario — we may look back on these fundraising numbers as the canary in the coal mine.”

“That data, plus Democrats’ very strong performances in special elections, could look like tangible signs of a Democratic turnout surge that pollsters and pundits perhaps won’t have paid enough attention to. Right now, in fact, the polls are not showing a Democratic turnout advantage.”

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Why Forecasts May Be Underestimating Democrats (Original Post) babylonsister Oct 2018 OP

You can't see a wave in polling. You never do. irresistable Oct 2018 #1

A 63 pickup would be BETTER than the 63 pickup in 2010 karynnj Oct 2018 #2

irresistable

(989 posts)

1. You can't see a wave in polling. You never do.

Reply to babylonsister (Original post)

Sat Oct 20, 2018, 08:49 PM

Oct 2018

neither the 1994 nor the 2010 wave was caught by the polls.

The most telling article I saw talked about the Orange county Republican housewives meeting secretly who can't tell their husbands that they hate Trump.

I think that this is a nationwide phenomenon.

karynnj

(59,504 posts)

2. A 63 pickup would be BETTER than the 63 pickup in 2010

Reply to babylonsister (Original post)

Sat Oct 20, 2018, 09:11 PM

Oct 2018

There are now 235 Republicans. We had 255 Democrats heading into the 2010 election. Therefore, if we gain 43 -- we end up in the mirror image of their place in 2010. They are ignoring that Obama's and the Democrats win in 2008 was FAR greater than Trump's and the Republicans in 2016.

Look back at things said after the 2016 election about 2018 -- and look where we are now. You will see bars lifted on what a "good" result is. Then, given the set of Senators up - those who won in 2012 (often after first winning in 2006) - include many Democrats in states we usually lose. The initial common wisdom is that we need to hold down the losses -- that would very likely come - to put us in position to win back the Senate in 2020. Likewise, it was said that the Republicans controlling a majority of state legislatures had so gerrymandered the Congressional districts, that it would be a daunting challenge to take back the house.

Now, the CW is we will win the House and will come close, but fail in the Senate -- possibly gaining one or two seats, but not the three needed to get the majority. That result would have looked far tooo optismistic back in mid 2017.

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