General Discussion

ProgRocknProgPol

(143 posts) Sun Oct 21, 2018, 05:29 PM Oct 2018

Question for those locally following Texas and Michigan Senate and Florida Governor Races

How does the environment (early turnout, polls, word-of-mouth, etc.) look like for each of these races? I'm asking because it seems like these races are all very similar: three populist candidates (Beto, Gillum, and James) campaigning as bipartisan and working for their state above any party. The two senate races in particular seem very similar in that these populist candidates are comfortably behind their opponents in the polls, but a groundswell of popular support/exposure and funding may carry them to victory.

I should clarify - I definitely want Beto and Andrew Gillum to win, and I do want John James to lose (mostly because I like what I've seen from Debbie Stabenow's Senate tenure, and I honestly do not believe that James would remain the bipartisan consensus-seeker he's campaigning as if he were to join the senate).

11 replies

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Question for those locally following Texas and Michigan Senate and Florida Governor Races (Original Post) ProgRocknProgPol Oct 2018 OP

In Michigan Takket Oct 2018 #1

Thank you. ProgRocknProgPol Oct 2018 #2

Stabenow's safe Takket Oct 2018 #5

James doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell. llmart Oct 2018 #6

I see trouble for James. safeinOhio Oct 2018 #3

I see many more Republican signs in my area. Roland99 Oct 2018 #4

There is a great deal of energy at the grassroots level Gothmog Oct 2018 #7

Montgomery County Texas is deep red with three active KKK chapters Gothmog Oct 2018 #8

Report from Austin Gothmog Oct 2018 #9

All those armed patriots at the border ready to take on the invading army? DFW Oct 2018 #10

San Antonio, TX - every polling place I drove by has HUGE lines Dem_4_Life Oct 2018 #11

Takket

(21,625 posts)

1. In Michigan

Reply to ProgRocknProgPol (Original post)

Sun Oct 21, 2018, 05:33 PM

Oct 2018

Not really following stabenaw because she is a lock to win. But I can tell you that in the 11th congressional district Haley Stevens is poised to flip a rock solid red district blue. She was even endorsed by a GOP women’s PAC that is fed up with her drumpf humping opponent that ran drumpf’s 2016 campaign here.

The 11th has only been blue for a few years in its history since the 1800s but we are flipping it this year!!!!

Edit: just looked it up. The 11th has been blue for 10 of the 135 years it has existed. FLIP AND RESIST!!!

ProgRocknProgPol

(143 posts)

2. Thank you.

Reply to Takket (Reply #1)

Sun Oct 21, 2018, 05:37 PM

Oct 2018

Awesome to hear about Stevens. I hope she and Spanberger (not in Michigan I know) make mincemeat out of their opponents.

I really hope you're right about Stabenow, but I'm almost getting a Beto vibe (albeit nowhere near as potent) from James. At least Debbie is a solid senator and decent/likable person (unlike Ted Cruz).

Takket

(21,625 posts)

5. Stabenow's safe

Reply to ProgRocknProgPol (Reply #2)

Sun Oct 21, 2018, 08:37 PM

Oct 2018

538 gives her a 99.4% chance and she's up by about 18 points in the polls.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/michigan/

llmart

(15,552 posts)

6. James doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell.

Reply to ProgRocknProgPol (Reply #2)

Sun Oct 21, 2018, 09:21 PM

Oct 2018

Stabenow has been great for Michigan.

safeinOhio

(32,715 posts)

3. I see trouble for James.

Reply to ProgRocknProgPol (Original post)

Sun Oct 21, 2018, 06:31 PM

Oct 2018

His opponent in the primary ran a lot of ads about how Liberal James is and not to be trusted. Might just cause some to stay home in the party.

Roland99

(53,342 posts)

4. I see many more Republican signs in my area.

Reply to ProgRocknProgPol (Original post)

Sun Oct 21, 2018, 06:36 PM

Oct 2018

But this is an area where one can't buy a new home for less than $350k anymore.

The congressional district tends to help Dems more now, though, after the in-gerrymandering.

Gothmog

(145,554 posts)

7. There is a great deal of energy at the grassroots level

Reply to ProgRocknProgPol (Original post)

Mon Oct 22, 2018, 12:20 AM

Oct 2018

Juanita Jean's husband just told me that there were 2000 people at this event in Sugar Land for Beto, Sri Preston Kulkarni and Brian Middleton (the local District Attorney candidate)

Link to tweet

Gothmog

(145,554 posts)

8. Montgomery County Texas is deep red with three active KKK chapters

Reply to ProgRocknProgPol (Original post)

Mon Oct 22, 2018, 12:30 AM

Oct 2018

Don Jr was there a couple of weeks ago with Carnival Cruz.
Bete went to Montgomery County and got a good turnout

Link to tweet

Gothmog

(145,554 posts)

9. Report from Austin

Reply to ProgRocknProgPol (Original post)

Mon Oct 22, 2018, 01:59 PM

Oct 2018

Link to tweet

DFW

(54,436 posts)

10. All those armed patriots at the border ready to take on the invading army?

Reply to ProgRocknProgPol (Original post)

Mon Oct 22, 2018, 02:08 PM

Oct 2018

They had better bring a lot of bottled water, portable toilets, gas stoves and canned food. Comfortable sleeping bags, too.

Both Godot and the Great Pumpkin will show up first.

Dem_4_Life

(1,765 posts)

11. San Antonio, TX - every polling place I drove by has HUGE lines

Reply to ProgRocknProgPol (Original post)

Mon Oct 22, 2018, 02:49 PM

Oct 2018

A friend posted on Facebook he went to vote at his usual spot that is usually in and out really quick and there are lines all the way to the street way over 100 Feet from the door.

I am hoping my friend's registration is updated by tomorrow (we are voting together tomorrow) since on the last day they said she would be by early voting day but they were so swamped with new registrations they were over a month behind.

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