There s a 50% chance it'll form into a tropical a tropical storm over the next few days. They don't even have an actually real track for it yet. I live in SOFL.

You are correct re formation but I'm looking at that and the shape of the graphical outlook as well as comments from people way above my pay grade on these matters.

It's supposed to pass well to the NE of the Lesser Antilles, which would not at all be a traditional or plausable track for a FL landfall.

The latest GFS and Euro models don't have it coming anywhere near the continental US.

(current & 2-day)



(5-day)



What will be interesting to see is how whatever happens over the weekend with Willa remnants, a large jetstream dip, and a nor'easter, impacts conditions just to its west.

Could this become this guy?



Or maybe him -

Not good for folks in the way

Since nothing has churned through that area in awhile, the water is probably still warm and could help it intensify into something.

Hurricane season causes so much anxiety.

We've got howling currents and small craft advisory through Friday. It's making life on the water difficult.

We have a cousin and his wife for England who decided this was a good time for a cruise. I told him it was a very bad idea at this time. Ah well!

It's also heading towards China

Pay attention to this forecast. we don' t know where it will end up at this time. Now to 40% in 48 hours and 70% in five days.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 24 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean is associated with a broad area of low pressure located about
900 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. This system has
become better organized since yesterday with increased thunderstorm
activity, although the low's circulation is still not well defined.
This disturbance is expected to move northward over the next couple
of days into an area where environmental conditions are forecast to
be generally conducive for development, and a tropical or
subtropical depression or storm is most likely to form on Friday or
Saturday. After that time, the system is forecast to turn westward
well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles through early next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

but I am very nervous about this re Florida or the Carolina's again.


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized
in association with a broad area of low pressure located over the
central tropical Atlantic about 950 miles east-northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands. This low is expected to move northward
over the next couple of days into an area where upper-level winds
are forecast to be conducive for further development, and a tropical
or subtropical storm is likely to form on Friday or Saturday. After
that time, the system is forecast to turn westward well to the
north or northeast of the Lesser Antilles through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web
at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml

Forecaster Blake

The warm water storms that are hitting the state cause enormous disruptions that lasts for weeks. When people are forced into survival mode, things like voting after a storm has hit become a secondary concern.

Vote the out

Maybe we can aim it right towards Mar-a-Lago.

I'd concentrate. It's the other folks that give me pause.

May be trouble for Bermuda or a fish storm. Thanks