--snip--This has been rattling through my mind as I read and listen to the news this morning. To listen to it the election has taken a dramatic turn in the Republicans’ direction. The AP writes: “In the closing stretch of the 2018 campaign, the question is no longer the size of the Democratic wave. It’s whether there will be a wave at all.” A few moments ago I heard one of morning TV’s top political talk hosts press a Democratic talking head over a new poll showing that with just two weeks to go it’s a dead heat in the most competitive battleground districts.
As I explained earlier this week, I’m watching every headline, poll number and shred of information I can find about this election because the stakes are so damn high. I don’t need to argue or make a case about why it’s the most important midterm or election of our lifetimes. It is. No hyperbole. This is it. And I would be lying to you if I told you I didn’t feel angst and apprehension as I read this stuff. It does all feel different. The climate feels different. And yet I go back to the numbers. And this shift does not seem born out by any data I’m actually seeing. And I’m seeing close to all of it.

Let’s start with that poll of battleground states from The Washington Post. It’s almost the mirror opposite of how it’s been presented. The poll is of the most-contested districts, the battleground districts. It almost goes without saying that those races are close. That’s what makes them battleground races. The pollster took 69 districts which The Cook Political Report rated as competitive in August and polled just in those districts for an aggregate national poll. Here’s the key piece of information. 63 of those 69 seats are currently held by Republicans. This is actually pretty bad news for the GOP. And it’s close to the same as it was in September. Yet I’ve heard this flagged in numerous outlets as another sign the Democrats are slipping.

I’m not here to unskew the polls for you. The Senate map has shifted significantly against the Democrats over the last month. There are also worrisome nuggets of information. President Trump’s personal numbers have popped up. The latest NBC poll showed Republicans closing the enthusiasm gap with Democrats. Each of these give me pause and make me wonder whether they’re leading indicators of some shift. But when I look at all the numbers combined, there’s just no evidence for this shift which is dominating the media narrative. The best baseline I think in terms of is the generic ballot poll. That’s been highly consist, between 8 and 9 points for the last two months.

--snip--
I’m apprehensive and I want this to be over because the stakes for the country are so high. But this media narrative, at least in terms of the House, just doesn’t have much to support it.