Poll screen just to be safe but yeah by all means take Rasmussen’s screed out of that sample and probably almost equally as bad numbers will result.

none of the other presidents were underwater for more than a blip.

donnie consistently has had disapproval higher than approval for nearly his entire time in office, and usually by a wide margin.


you'd never know it the way the media covers him.

No other president had such stable numbers. No matter what he does, he is always low 40s/high 30s. Ir's the mark of a personality cult and we've never had such a thing in US history.

not that i want that, but it's widely predicted, and this expansion is already the longest on record.

then massages it based on historical accuracy and partisan shift. His methodology requires that he not throw out data just because it looks bad. It's a common error in science and leads to bad results.

First, his methodology already gives a significant adjustment for Rasmussen, so you are adjusting an adjustment. Second, outliers are a sign of a functioning polling system. Since the polls each use different screens, you'd expect some to be way off. If they all said the same thing, it means they are herding, that is, changing their numbers for fear of looking wrong.

On the other side of the equation, USC/Dornslife uses a very different methodology from all others. It consistently rated Trump higher than all others in 2016 and consistently rates Democrats higher now. It showed a closer, more stable race than the others.

If USC/Dornslife is correct again, the Democrats will win in an epic landslide.

He rates Rasmussen a C+, but Gallup gets a B and they just had Trump tanking today. USC is rated a C as well as Rasmussen, though.

But, if you look at the "Adjusted" numbers for Rasmussen, it's 45 approve/50 disapprove.

Marist College is rated an A and has him at 39, his lowest among recent polls.

They don't have a long track record, so maybe they've just been lucky. But I do think they are on to something with their new approach, so if they are right, more pollsters will start doing it.