Jon Ralston who is the expert says that if we get 40,000 plurality in Clarkvthat there aren't enough rural Republican votes to win

In other words, What are you saying?

piece together various threads on here to get a picture of what a tweet like this means.

In brief, if Dems lead by 10% in Clark County when early votes are tallied, it is very hard for a Repuke to win a statewide race in NV, barring some unusual Repuke surge elsewhere in the state. This is what he calls the Firewall. He was figuring that if Dems reach a 40,000 advantage in early votes cast in Clark County, they would have the firewall. It looks like they will exceed that. He has been really accurate in the past, especially on election night when votes are coming in--he knows where the votes are coming in from, and he knows how and when to call the race. Even if the overall numbers look close or scary, check for Ralston's take--it will probably be correct.

I think 43k number for today though is just overall early votes cast today (both parties). The upshot is that's a lot, so the Dems should pad their lead in early votes cast and so probably reach the Firewall number.


Anyway, that's my semi-informed take on it from following Ralston-related posts.

Other than Reno there aren't any other population centers in Nevada.

Any Info On Washoe Co. ?

from Ralston's blog, updated at noon today:

Dem: 40.4 % Republicon: 39.8% Other: 19.8%

That's percentage of all early votes cast so far by party affiliation.


https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog

39k Dem lead.

Clark County (LV area) is the largest population-wise and is Dem. Washoe (Reno area) is usually purplish but might be a bit more D this year so far.

The rest of the counties are deep dark red. Like dead brothel owner beating live Dem by 20 points red. Ralston had said that if the Clark dem “firewall” (dem over rep) early vote number passes 38,000, GOP might not have enough to overcome the Dems even with Rep landslide in rural counties (low population vs washoe and Clark). Don’t know how “others” voted, don’t know what the cross over vote #s are (registered rep voting dem, fer instance) Hope this makes sense!


Ralston tweet from earlier this evening:

Link to tweet

"Welcome to the final day of early voting, which could last to as long as midnight.
The Democrats are hoping for a repeat of Day 13 today, when they boosted Clark turnout to its highest total so far (31,400) and added more than 4,000 to the southern firewall. That puts it at 37,500, almost guaranteeing they get to 40,000, which I have said from the beginning would give them some comfort and give Republicans heartburn. It’s not a guarantee of victory, but with Washoe a wash, that would mean there has to have been little cannibalization of the rural vote and a huge Election Day turnout there for the GOP to have a good chance."