FINAL STATE OF PLAY: The Senate Forecast Is Partly Cloudy For Both Parties

By Cameron Joseph

November 5, 2018 6:00 am

With Election Day nearly here, the battle for the Senate remains far from certain, with each side having a legitimate chance of improving its standing in the upper chamber.

Nearly all of the races that have been contested on the Senate map all election remain highly competitive, leading to a marked level of uncertainty as to which party will gain ground on Tuesday.

The most likely scenario appears to be no net change or a one-seat swing in either direction in the upper chamber after two years of clashes and hundreds of millions of dollars in ad spending. But with a number of races on the razor’s edge, strategists in both parties acknowledge that there’s still a real if remote chance Democrats could win the Senate — and that Republicans could still significantly expand their majority.

It’s unlikely but not impossible that Democrats can net the three seats necessary for Senate control, while Republicans’ early hopes for big gains in the upper chamber look unlikely as well. Avoiding losses would be a victory in itself for Democrats given how tough the Senate map is this year, with 10 Democrats up for re-election in states Trump won and just one GOP-held seat up in a state Trump lost.

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