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How can there be a 7% disparity between CNN and MSNBC on Trump's approval? (Original Post) redstateblues Nov 2018 OP
Kornacki is giddy over numbers that COLGATE4 Nov 2018 #1
Prove it... brooklynite Nov 2018 #5
Thanks elleng Nov 2018 #14
This morning he has been pushing the "neck and neck" line, so there's probably a +/-7 on that... OnDoutside Nov 2018 #9
Which races do you feel aren't close? brooklynite Nov 2018 #20
He wasn't talking about individual races at the time, it was the generic ballot. OnDoutside Nov 2018 #21
Again, give me a specific citation... brooklynite Nov 2018 #22
they're not agingdem Nov 2018 #2
oh jeez qazplm135 Nov 2018 #13
no it's not agingdem Nov 2018 #16
you apparently need calm qazplm135 Nov 2018 #17
Lot of reasons Algernon Moncrieff Nov 2018 #3
margin of error. one misses high, the other low Takket Nov 2018 #4
If someone is keeping track of Kornacki's presentations LiberalFighter Nov 2018 #6
look at 538 aggregate is the most accurate method jcgoldie Nov 2018 #7
Sounds about right. People fixate too much on one poll and not the collection. Drunken Irishman Nov 2018 #8
And... jcgoldie Nov 2018 #11
The MSNBC poll was an NBC News/WSJ one meow2u3 Nov 2018 #10
Why you never look at any single poll, you look at trends of same polls beachbum bob Nov 2018 #12
You have to look at agragate polls edhopper Nov 2018 #15
Different population models. Adrahil Nov 2018 #18
Registered Voters V Likely Voters DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2018 #19

brooklynite

(94,719 posts)
20. Which races do you feel aren't close?
Mon Nov 5, 2018, 02:54 PM
Nov 2018

The key is that there are so many in play that the odds for a net win favor the Democrats. Very few people question the assertion that almost every individual race has close polling.

OnDoutside

(19,969 posts)
21. He wasn't talking about individual races at the time, it was the generic ballot.
Mon Nov 5, 2018, 06:57 PM
Nov 2018

The way republicans have been acting in the last week, even Trump, they know that the House is toast for them, yet Kornacki can't even admit that. Instead he's trying to hype up that it's neck and neck. Aside from that, I think they have all underestimated the effect of independent voters on this election. The cumulative special elections over the last 18 months cannot be an aberration. Something's been happening that I don't think has been fully understood.

brooklynite

(94,719 posts)
22. Again, give me a specific citation...
Mon Nov 5, 2018, 11:46 PM
Nov 2018

...because I've listened to him and I hear a fairly positive spin.

agingdem

(7,853 posts)
2. they're not
Mon Nov 5, 2018, 11:40 AM
Nov 2018

Kornacki that hyperactive self absorbed jerk wants a horserace...how else can he justify his very expensive map?!

qazplm135

(7,447 posts)
17. you apparently need calm
Mon Nov 5, 2018, 02:17 PM
Nov 2018

I have no issues with his delivery or remaining calm while watching it nor do I see any indications that he has any emotional reaction to who he thinks is or is not in front.

Algernon Moncrieff

(5,790 posts)
3. Lot of reasons
Mon Nov 5, 2018, 11:40 AM
Nov 2018

1) Where the poll was taken
2) How (man on the street? land line phone? internet? wireless?)
3) Polling represents 3.5% polling error either way around 42%
4) Specifics on how the question was asked
5) Which polling organization

LiberalFighter

(51,056 posts)
6. If someone is keeping track of Kornacki's presentations
Mon Nov 5, 2018, 11:51 AM
Nov 2018

Please provide data showing his analysis is wrong. So we can use it against him.

jcgoldie

(11,642 posts)
11. And...
Mon Nov 5, 2018, 12:06 PM
Nov 2018

The other thing that makes it more accurate is that not only does he average the polls but he adjusts them for house effects... so, for example, when rasmussen comes out with garbage like Trump +1 it gets adjusted to accommodate for their consistent bias.

 

Adrahil

(13,340 posts)
18. Different population models.
Mon Nov 5, 2018, 02:19 PM
Nov 2018

A lot of folks don't realize that the population model used influences the results a LOT. That's how Rasmussen manages to show numbers so high for Trump.... their population model vastly favors Republicans.

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