Ralston predicts Nevada should be known by about 30 mins after closing

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog

As I have been saying, watch when the first Clark results pop up between 7 PM and 8:30 PM, the tally of the early and mail ballots. If Heller is behind by 10 percentage points or more, he is probably going to lose. Washoe is unlikely to save him this time — check those first numbers from there, too — and there probably aren’t enough votes left in the rurals. But if he is behind by single digits in Clark, a rural surge could put him over the top.

One note specific to the governor’s race: While Heller lost Clark by almost 10 and won Washoe by 20,000 votes the last time he squeaked by, Laxalt lost Clark by almost 20,000 votes (only 6 points) and Washoe by 2,000 votes but swamped Ross Miller in the rurals to win. So watch his Clark numbers, too, this time: If Steve Sisolak does not have a double-digit lead, he could be in trouble.

First, there are, obviously, a finite number of votes possible left. Here’s how many:

Total: 973,000

Clark: 670,000

Washoe: 147,000

Rurals: 114,000

Total D: 338,000

Total R: 284,000

Total Clark D: 267,000

Total Clark R: 177,000

Total Washoe D: 45,000

Total Washoe R: 52,000

Total rural D: 25,000

Total rural R: 55,000