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ProSense

(116,464 posts)
Wed Aug 15, 2012, 05:28 PM Aug 2012

A small bump for Romney, but not a game change. (updated)

Last edited Wed Aug 15, 2012, 06:08 PM - Edit history (1)

A small bump for Romney, but not a game change.

In the immediate aftermath of Mitt Romney’s selection of Paul Ryan as his running mate, the GOP ticket has drawn even with the Democratic ticket. Today, Romney and Ryan lead the Obama-Biden ticket by a point (47% to 46%), an improvement from July when President Obama led Romney by 2 points, 47% to 45%.

<...>

Romney has seen the largest gain in Ohio, a state we have seen bounce between the campaigns over the last few months. Today, the GOP ticket leads by 2 points (46% to 44%), compared to July when President Obama led the state 48% to 45%. Romney also gained ground in Virginia – today, he and Paul Ryan hold a 3-point advantage in the race (48% to 45%), while Romney trailed by 2 points in July.

However, President Obama has seen improvements in Colorado and Florida. In Colorado, the Obama- Biden ticket now leads 49% to 46%, an increase from a 1-point lead in July. In Florida, the Democratic ticket trails by just 1 point (48% to 47%), compared to a 3 point deficit in Jul y.

<...>

However, the Romney-Ryan ticket has a significant disadvantage on Medicare. Asked which of the two tickets is more likely to protect Medicare, Purple State voters choose Obama-Biden by an 8-point margin (48% to 40%). On that issue, the Democratic ticket holds a 2-point advantage among independents, 43% to 41%.

http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/PurplePoll_Aug15_Final.pdf


That's not a bump, that's statistical noise. Mitt basically gained ground in two states and lost ground in two others.

I mean, the President increased his lead in Colorado and cut Romney's lead in Florida to one point.

What this poll shows is Ryan is dead weight, and will be a huge problem for Romney in Florida and on Medicare.

Updated to add perspective on Ohio.

Here is a recent PPP poll

Poll: Obama Up 3 In Ohio, Leads By 10 Points Among Independents
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021131715

Here are previous polls done within the last month (note that Purple Strategies had Romney leading in May, then it flipped to Obama in July) :

Poll: Obama Leads Romney In Ohio (by 8 points)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021029900





http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021007997

13 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies

dennis4868

(9,774 posts)
1. I never heard of this pollster...
Wed Aug 15, 2012, 05:39 PM
Aug 2012

are they reliable...do they lean Republican? This would be nice to know....

nc4bo

(17,651 posts)
2. I guess IOW some of the voting public got a woody from the stud muffin?
Wed Aug 15, 2012, 05:41 PM
Aug 2012

It's a itty bitty bumpity bump. I'm sure it's nothing like they'd hoped for.

The work must continue to wreak havoc on the reputations of these two neocons.

 

Sheepshank

(12,504 posts)
4. There was an immeidate and palpable rush in the air, when Sister Palin came on the scene.
Wed Aug 15, 2012, 05:44 PM
Aug 2012

So much so, I was actually very concerned (of course that didn't last too long). I knew nothing about Palin, and the Right seemed extremely energized.

There was no where close to that same excitement with Ryan's announcement.

Denzil_DC

(7,254 posts)
5. Purple Strategies is a pollster to treat with extreme caution, to say the least
Wed Aug 15, 2012, 05:52 PM
Aug 2012

It's run by Alex Castellanos. Per Wikipedia "He was a top media adviser to George W. Bush's 2004 presidential campaign and Mitt Romney's 2008 presidential campaign."

Kyle Leighton at TPM also fell for this poll, and the commenters there aren't pleased!

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
6. It's right-leaning
Wed Aug 15, 2012, 05:58 PM
Aug 2012

and that still doesn't change the fact that Romney got little to no bump after his VP pick.

That TPM headline sucks.

Swing-State Poll: Race A Dead Heat, Ryan Bolsters Romney’s Image

Romney’s overall favorability has ticked up, from 41 percent a month ago to 45 percent now. But his unfavorable rating only dropped a point, from 49 percent to 48 percent. The boost for Romney may also be due to fact that President Obama’s approval rating dropped off slightly — 43 percent of swing-state voters approve of the president’s job perforance, while 51 percent disapprove. In July, the Purple Poll found a 46 approve-49 disapprove split.

The race, according to this poll, has always been a dead heat.

Denzil_DC

(7,254 posts)
13. "That TPM headline sucks."
Wed Aug 15, 2012, 07:42 PM
Aug 2012

Tell me about it!

Josh Marshall's on holiday at the moment. Hope he hurries back ...

pnwmom

(108,990 posts)
7. But weren't there a bunch of polls last week that put Obama 7 - 9 points ahead?
Wed Aug 15, 2012, 06:05 PM
Aug 2012

And now this poll AND Gallup have them again virtually tied.

warrior1

(12,325 posts)
9. I think there was a higher
Wed Aug 15, 2012, 06:07 PM
Aug 2012

poll where people didn't know anything about ryan. That will change, then watch the polls from them drop.

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