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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsA small bump for Romney, but not a game change. (updated)
Last edited Wed Aug 15, 2012, 06:08 PM - Edit history (1)
In the immediate aftermath of Mitt Romneys selection of Paul Ryan as his running mate, the GOP ticket has drawn even with the Democratic ticket. Today, Romney and Ryan lead the Obama-Biden ticket by a point (47% to 46%), an improvement from July when President Obama led Romney by 2 points, 47% to 45%.
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Romney has seen the largest gain in Ohio, a state we have seen bounce between the campaigns over the last few months. Today, the GOP ticket leads by 2 points (46% to 44%), compared to July when President Obama led the state 48% to 45%. Romney also gained ground in Virginia today, he and Paul Ryan hold a 3-point advantage in the race (48% to 45%), while Romney trailed by 2 points in July.
However, President Obama has seen improvements in Colorado and Florida. In Colorado, the Obama- Biden ticket now leads 49% to 46%, an increase from a 1-point lead in July. In Florida, the Democratic ticket trails by just 1 point (48% to 47%), compared to a 3 point deficit in Jul y.
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However, the Romney-Ryan ticket has a significant disadvantage on Medicare. Asked which of the two tickets is more likely to protect Medicare, Purple State voters choose Obama-Biden by an 8-point margin (48% to 40%). On that issue, the Democratic ticket holds a 2-point advantage among independents, 43% to 41%.
http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/PurplePoll_Aug15_Final.pdf
That's not a bump, that's statistical noise. Mitt basically gained ground in two states and lost ground in two others.
I mean, the President increased his lead in Colorado and cut Romney's lead in Florida to one point.
What this poll shows is Ryan is dead weight, and will be a huge problem for Romney in Florida and on Medicare.
Updated to add perspective on Ohio.
Here is a recent PPP poll
Poll: Obama Up 3 In Ohio, Leads By 10 Points Among Independents
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021131715
Here are previous polls done within the last month (note that Purple Strategies had Romney leading in May, then it flipped to Obama in July) :
Poll: Obama Leads Romney In Ohio (by 8 points)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021029900
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021007997
dennis4868
(9,774 posts)are they reliable...do they lean Republican? This would be nice to know....
cleduc
(653 posts)nc4bo
(17,651 posts)It's a itty bitty bumpity bump. I'm sure it's nothing like they'd hoped for.
The work must continue to wreak havoc on the reputations of these two neocons.
progressivebydesign
(19,458 posts)Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)So much so, I was actually very concerned (of course that didn't last too long). I knew nothing about Palin, and the Right seemed extremely energized.
There was no where close to that same excitement with Ryan's announcement.
Denzil_DC
(7,254 posts)It's run by Alex Castellanos. Per Wikipedia "He was a top media adviser to George W. Bush's 2004 presidential campaign and Mitt Romney's 2008 presidential campaign."
Kyle Leighton at TPM also fell for this poll, and the commenters there aren't pleased!
ProSense
(116,464 posts)and that still doesn't change the fact that Romney got little to no bump after his VP pick.
That TPM headline sucks.
Romneys overall favorability has ticked up, from 41 percent a month ago to 45 percent now. But his unfavorable rating only dropped a point, from 49 percent to 48 percent. The boost for Romney may also be due to fact that President Obamas approval rating dropped off slightly 43 percent of swing-state voters approve of the presidents job perforance, while 51 percent disapprove. In July, the Purple Poll found a 46 approve-49 disapprove split.
The race, according to this poll, has always been a dead heat.
Denzil_DC
(7,254 posts)Tell me about it!
Josh Marshall's on holiday at the moment. Hope he hurries back ...
pnwmom
(108,990 posts)uponit7771
(90,353 posts)ProudToBeBlueInRhody
(16,399 posts)....if that's the best they can come up with for Shitt, he must be in real trouble!
pnwmom
(108,990 posts)And now this poll AND Gallup have them again virtually tied.
warrior1
(12,325 posts)poll where people didn't know anything about ryan. That will change, then watch the polls from them drop.