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DonViejo

(60,536 posts)
Sat Nov 10, 2018, 10:04 AM Nov 2018

Beto O'Rourke should run for Senate in 2020. He could win.

By James Henson November 9 at 7:22 PM

James Henson is director of the Texas Politics Project and teaches in the Department of Government at the University of Texas at Austin.

Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R-Tex.) narrow win over Beto O’Rourke on Tuesday night ended the El Paso Democrat’s fairy-tale run. But Democrats’ disappointment in failing to “turn Texas blue” obscures another discernible election result: the beginning of the end for one-party rule in Texas.

While a truly competitive party system did not manifest Tuesday, there are signs that double-digit margins for Texas Republicans are numbered. If Democrats want to finish what O’Rourke started, they need to follow his lead. And if O’Rourke wants to secure a spot in the U.S. Senate, he should look to 2020 — and challenge Republican Sen. John Cornyn.

O’Rourke was part of a larger group of Democratic candidates contesting more races in 2018 than in recent memory, including every one of Texas’s 36 congressional seats. Two of those candidates, Colin Allred and Lizzie Pannill Fletcher, defeated two veteran GOP incumbents, Rep. Pete Sessions of Dallas and Rep. John Abney Culberson of Houston, respectively. Two other congressional candidates ran strong races and narrowly lost to Republican incumbents. These Democratic campaigns departed from the 21st century norm by being both well-funded and well-executed.

Two Democrats not running for reelection (Gene Green and O’Rourke) were replaced by Democratic political veterans, Sylvia Garcia and Veronica Escobar, the first Latinas sent to Congress from Texas. Democrats also flipped 12 of the 150 state House seats and two of the state’s 31 state Senate seats. O’Rourke attracted more than 4 million votes, a dramatic increase from the Democratic Senate candidate’s 1.6 million votes in 2014, and even improved upon the 3.9 million votes cast for Hillary Clinton in the last presidential election, which she lost by nine percentage points.

There are no guarantees here, of course. The Democratic Party will need to actively build on this by effectively using data from the millions of midterm voters, keeping good candidates who didn’t win engaged while recruiting more of them and, following O’Rourke’s example, starting their campaigns earlier. Candidates and Democratic consultants can learn from O’Rourke’s fundraising practices, and donors need to keep more money in Texas rather than shipping it to Democrats in other states.

more
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/beto-orourke-should-run-for-senate-in-2020-he-could-win/2018/11/09/99263192-e462-11e8-ab2c-b31dcd53ca6b_story.html

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Beto O'Rourke should run for Senate in 2020. He could win. (Original Post) DonViejo Nov 2018 OP
This is a better idea than running for President Sanity Claws Nov 2018 #1
Yes. Because heaven forbid we have a candidate Horse with no Name Nov 2018 #4
Lots of pushback on DU re:Beto 2020 BannonsLiver Nov 2018 #6
Agreed. Horse with no Name Nov 2018 #10
Well said BannonsLiver Nov 2018 #13
Of course he is ready treestar Nov 2018 #7
Why? What makes them ready? Autumn Nov 2018 #9
What makes him unready? BannonsLiver Nov 2018 #12
WTF. That was my question. What makes someone feel Beto isn't ready to be president? Autumn Nov 2018 #14
Ok my apologies BannonsLiver Nov 2018 #20
You misread. I responded to someone who said he wasn't ready, asking them why Autumn Nov 2018 #21
Can't say this enough, people said the same about Barack Obama... In It to Win It Nov 2018 #16
In 2004 this really charismatic state senator from Illinois PoindexterOglethorpe Nov 2018 #27
Time and demographics TxVietVet Nov 2018 #2
Beto will win next time dalton99a Nov 2018 #3
Highly unlikely BannonsLiver Nov 2018 #8
Do you live in TX? LeftInTX Nov 2018 #25
I do live in Texas and firmly believe Cruz was the best bet. trc Nov 2018 #29
Could not agree more In It to Win It Nov 2018 #30
I really don't think he will. In It to Win It Nov 2018 #17
Hes got star power now Mystery sage Nov 2018 #5
LOL I don't think Cornyn has ever campaigned LeftInTX Nov 2018 #26
Texas Needs to Upgrade the Voting Machines That Flipped Votes from Beto to Cruz dlk Nov 2018 #11
he should start running NOW. mopinko Nov 2018 #15
Let him take a break. Give him time to get over this loss and rest. In It to Win It Nov 2018 #18
ok, i wasnt being literal, but mopinko Nov 2018 #22
A lot can change but I don't think that would be a good idea. Because I think he would lose SweetieD Nov 2018 #19
Beto is a better national candidate than statewide Texas candidate andym Nov 2018 #23
Exactly, and Beto is the type who can defeat a presidential incumbent Awsi Dooger Nov 2018 #24
I was finally able to saidsimplesimon Nov 2018 #28
President* Tiggeroshii Nov 2018 #31

Sanity Claws

(21,849 posts)
1. This is a better idea than running for President
Sat Nov 10, 2018, 10:06 AM
Nov 2018

I like him. I think he has a bright future and is a rising star in the Party. However, no way is he ready for the presidency.

Horse with no Name

(33,956 posts)
4. Yes. Because heaven forbid we have a candidate
Sat Nov 10, 2018, 10:27 AM
Nov 2018

That can raise a shit ton of money and energize a low voting state and turn a red state purple.
That would be an awful candidate.
Indeed.

BannonsLiver

(16,387 posts)
6. Lots of pushback on DU re:Beto 2020
Sat Nov 10, 2018, 10:38 AM
Nov 2018

I think it’s less about wanting what’s best for Beto, and the party, and more that these folks are scared shitless he’d win the nom over their preferred candidates. Couldn’t be more obvious.

Horse with no Name

(33,956 posts)
10. Agreed.
Sat Nov 10, 2018, 10:48 AM
Nov 2018

I went to his rallies. I saw first hand what his demographics were. Young, old, black, white,Asian...even republicans.
He’s got “it” and if we don’t harness that and use it to our advantage, especially when there has been yearning for a charismatic leader of the party...then we aren’t politically smart.
We’ve been waiting for someone to emerge and here he is.

BannonsLiver

(16,387 posts)
13. Well said
Sat Nov 10, 2018, 11:03 AM
Nov 2018

We’re starting to see agendas being laid out by folks. Monday everyone loved him. Now it’s “well, I don’t know” and “I’m not sure he’s ready” whatever that’s supposed to mean.

treestar

(82,383 posts)
7. Of course he is ready
Sat Nov 10, 2018, 10:42 AM
Nov 2018

Anyone is. After the Orange One, there is no such thing any more. How long has he been in Congress?

BannonsLiver

(16,387 posts)
12. What makes him unready?
Sat Nov 10, 2018, 11:00 AM
Nov 2018

Besides, if he’s not ready, whatever that’s supposed to mean, I’m sure whatever candidates you have in mind for 2020 won’t have any trouble beating him for the nomination. So no need to worry about what Beto might do.

Autumn

(45,092 posts)
14. WTF. That was my question. What makes someone feel Beto isn't ready to be president?
Sat Nov 10, 2018, 12:51 PM
Nov 2018

Whatever that’s supposed to mean. I'm not worried a bit about what Beto might do, I'm hoping like hell he will decide to run in 2020. I think he's ready right now and would be perfect.

BannonsLiver

(16,387 posts)
20. Ok my apologies
Sat Nov 10, 2018, 01:59 PM
Nov 2018

When you respond to a question with what makes him ready it doesn’t exactly sound like a ringing endorsement.

Autumn

(45,092 posts)
21. You misread. I responded to someone who said he wasn't ready, asking them why
Sat Nov 10, 2018, 02:04 PM
Nov 2018

they thought he wasn't ready and what would make him ready. I didn't get an answer.

In It to Win It

(8,252 posts)
16. Can't say this enough, people said the same about Barack Obama...
Sat Nov 10, 2018, 12:57 PM
Nov 2018

He was told to wait his turn; that he wasn't ready; he was too inexperienced.

Barack Obama did not care and I thank him for not listening.

PoindexterOglethorpe

(25,858 posts)
27. In 2004 this really charismatic state senator from Illinois
Sat Nov 10, 2018, 05:12 PM
Nov 2018

gave the keynote speech at the Democratic National Convention.

Wow, everyone said. Someday he should run for President. But not in 2008, nope. He's too young, just a state senator, in no way is he ready for the presidency and besides, he'll have his chance a few years down the road. Maybe after Hillary completes two terms. But not now.

Don't know about anyone else, but I'm rather glad that man didn't listen to the conventional wisdom.

TxVietVet

(1,905 posts)
2. Time and demographics
Sat Nov 10, 2018, 10:17 AM
Nov 2018

Every 2 years the conservanazis will be cringing waiting for defeat. Gerrymandering and voting restrictions are the only things that will be the key to their hold on power to rule over Texas.

BannonsLiver

(16,387 posts)
8. Highly unlikely
Sat Nov 10, 2018, 10:42 AM
Nov 2018

Cornyn is far more popular than Cruz. Texas isn’t there yet folks. Won’t be for a while. I’d bet O’Rourke knows that, which is why in the end his next move probably won’t be another senate run.

LeftInTX

(25,345 posts)
25. Do you live in TX?
Sat Nov 10, 2018, 05:07 PM
Nov 2018

I don't think Cornyn has ever campaigned.

I agree he's more likeable. His office staff are nice. His local head staffer posed with Obama with pic on his desk.

His office has CSPAN on as oppposed Cruz who has Fox.

But that is where it ends. On the Senate floor, Cornyn has been a jerk.

His favorability ratings are much lower than Cruz. I think a lot of voters don't know who he is.

trc

(823 posts)
29. I do live in Texas and firmly believe Cruz was the best bet.
Sat Nov 10, 2018, 05:17 PM
Nov 2018

Cornyn is more popular and less divisive than Cruz. If Beto were to lose a second run at being a Texas senator it would damage his credibility as a candidate...just look how some reacted on DU to his loss to Cruz. Beto needs to run for President/VP, in that role he may put Texas in play as a democratic flip and his coattails proved to be fairly long. Beto would be an extraordinary national candidate who would absolutely energize young voters all across the county.

In It to Win It

(8,252 posts)
30. Could not agree more
Sat Nov 10, 2018, 09:46 PM
Nov 2018

I think Beto came as close as he's ever gonna come to winning a statewide race in Texas as a Democrat for the foreseeable future, a close second.

I strongly think Beto would be wasting his time trying to win a statewide race in Texas in 2020 considering it will be a presidential election year and republican turnout is going to be significantly bigger than it was this year.

Beto performed better and got more votes (presidential election years and midterms) than any democratic senator or presidential candidate since god-knows-how-long, and it still wasn't enough. Assuming he runs in for Senate again in 2020, he'd would have to find a million new votes and probably need to get more votes in Texas than the President would get.

In It to Win It

(8,252 posts)
17. I really don't think he will.
Sat Nov 10, 2018, 01:02 PM
Nov 2018

The electorate in Texas is just too conservative. Republicans just outnumber everyone else BY A LOT. Unless we get at least a million Democrats to move to Texas by 2020, I don't think he will win. Since it will be a presidential year, there's gonna be a lot more ground to make up than this midterm. I don't think that will change in two years.

Mystery sage

(576 posts)
5. Hes got star power now
Sat Nov 10, 2018, 10:30 AM
Nov 2018

At least more than the other guy what was his name corny..er something

Anyway should he run hes got this.

dlk

(11,566 posts)
11. Texas Needs to Upgrade the Voting Machines That Flipped Votes from Beto to Cruz
Sat Nov 10, 2018, 10:57 AM
Nov 2018

Texas is the most gerrymandered state in the union and has a long history of voter suppression and in this last election, voting machines that flipped votes from Beto to Cruz. Before any Democrat can win a statewide election in Texas, no matter how many votes they actually receive, there will need to be major upgrades to the voting system.

mopinko

(70,111 posts)
15. he should start running NOW.
Sat Nov 10, 2018, 12:53 PM
Nov 2018

run for the next 2 years. build infrastructure in rural areas. register voters.
and make a fucking issue of election integrity NOW. not the day after an election. in time for the next election.

pretty sure he can afford to do so.

mopinko

(70,111 posts)
22. ok, i wasnt being literal, but
Sat Nov 10, 2018, 03:51 PM
Nov 2018

it doesnt take that much time to announce, or just put it out there that he is thinking about it.

SweetieD

(1,660 posts)
19. A lot can change but I don't think that would be a good idea. Because I think he would lose
Sat Nov 10, 2018, 01:13 PM
Nov 2018

worse than he did to Cruz.

andym

(5,443 posts)
23. Beto is a better national candidate than statewide Texas candidate
Sat Nov 10, 2018, 03:59 PM
Nov 2018

because Texas is still too red. That he came so close shows how good a candidate he is and will be.

 

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
24. Exactly, and Beto is the type who can defeat a presidential incumbent
Sat Nov 10, 2018, 04:15 PM
Nov 2018

That is the variable. Who can defeat Trump? It is going to be exponentially more difficult than we prefer to believe, given the severe benefit of a doubt to the incumbent and with all the resources at his disposal.

One year ago many Democrats were still holding onto the nutty idea that Trump would resign or be removed from office. He's a such a lowlife people wanted to play Happy Adjuster and think that Trump was therefore not a normal incumbent. His approval rating couldn't rise. He would be ousted by Mueller. All the typical Happy Adjuster flawed thinking.

Bottom line, Trump's approval now is considerably higher than November 2016 and the exit polling always indicates higher approval among actual voters than during those pre-election approval polls. It was scary to look at one state exit poll after another in vital states and see Trump's approval above 50% or almost 50%. I don't Democrats nationally want to acknowledge that type of thing. They still prefer to believe Trump is 42% and soon to plunge. An easy out. Meanwhile it was easy to look at one exit poll number after another and realize that the Republican in the race lost, but Trump in his place would have won handily.

We need a special candidate to defeat Donald Trump. As a handicapper I don't see anyone else who qualifies. I don't plan to follow campaign 2020 if we nominate a run of the mill candidate. It will not be successful, not in that situational environment against an incumbent whose party has been in power only one term.

If Beto runs I'll pay attention

saidsimplesimon

(7,888 posts)
28. I was finally able to
Sat Nov 10, 2018, 05:15 PM
Nov 2018

recover from election insomnia the past couple of days.

Until someone has announced they are running in 2020, it is to early for me to even discuss individuals. We will have an excellent field of candidates. The primary will decide the winner.

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