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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsBeto O'Rourke should run for Senate in 2020. He could win.
By James Henson November 9 at 7:22 PM
James Henson is director of the Texas Politics Project and teaches in the Department of Government at the University of Texas at Austin.
Sen. Ted Cruzs (R-Tex.) narrow win over Beto ORourke on Tuesday night ended the El Paso Democrats fairy-tale run. But Democrats disappointment in failing to turn Texas blue obscures another discernible election result: the beginning of the end for one-party rule in Texas.
While a truly competitive party system did not manifest Tuesday, there are signs that double-digit margins for Texas Republicans are numbered. If Democrats want to finish what ORourke started, they need to follow his lead. And if ORourke wants to secure a spot in the U.S. Senate, he should look to 2020 and challenge Republican Sen. John Cornyn.
ORourke was part of a larger group of Democratic candidates contesting more races in 2018 than in recent memory, including every one of Texass 36 congressional seats. Two of those candidates, Colin Allred and Lizzie Pannill Fletcher, defeated two veteran GOP incumbents, Rep. Pete Sessions of Dallas and Rep. John Abney Culberson of Houston, respectively. Two other congressional candidates ran strong races and narrowly lost to Republican incumbents. These Democratic campaigns departed from the 21st century norm by being both well-funded and well-executed.
Two Democrats not running for reelection (Gene Green and ORourke) were replaced by Democratic political veterans, Sylvia Garcia and Veronica Escobar, the first Latinas sent to Congress from Texas. Democrats also flipped 12 of the 150 state House seats and two of the states 31 state Senate seats. ORourke attracted more than 4 million votes, a dramatic increase from the Democratic Senate candidates 1.6 million votes in 2014, and even improved upon the 3.9 million votes cast for Hillary Clinton in the last presidential election, which she lost by nine percentage points.
There are no guarantees here, of course. The Democratic Party will need to actively build on this by effectively using data from the millions of midterm voters, keeping good candidates who didnt win engaged while recruiting more of them and, following ORourkes example, starting their campaigns earlier. Candidates and Democratic consultants can learn from ORourkes fundraising practices, and donors need to keep more money in Texas rather than shipping it to Democrats in other states.
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/beto-orourke-should-run-for-senate-in-2020-he-could-win/2018/11/09/99263192-e462-11e8-ab2c-b31dcd53ca6b_story.html
Sanity Claws
(21,849 posts)I like him. I think he has a bright future and is a rising star in the Party. However, no way is he ready for the presidency.
Horse with no Name
(33,956 posts)That can raise a shit ton of money and energize a low voting state and turn a red state purple.
That would be an awful candidate.
Indeed.
BannonsLiver
(16,387 posts)I think its less about wanting whats best for Beto, and the party, and more that these folks are scared shitless hed win the nom over their preferred candidates. Couldnt be more obvious.
Horse with no Name
(33,956 posts)I went to his rallies. I saw first hand what his demographics were. Young, old, black, white,Asian...even republicans.
Hes got it and if we dont harness that and use it to our advantage, especially when there has been yearning for a charismatic leader of the party...then we arent politically smart.
Weve been waiting for someone to emerge and here he is.
BannonsLiver
(16,387 posts)Were starting to see agendas being laid out by folks. Monday everyone loved him. Now its well, I dont know and Im not sure hes ready whatever thats supposed to mean.
treestar
(82,383 posts)Anyone is. After the Orange One, there is no such thing any more. How long has he been in Congress?
Autumn
(45,092 posts)BannonsLiver
(16,387 posts)Besides, if hes not ready, whatever thats supposed to mean, Im sure whatever candidates you have in mind for 2020 wont have any trouble beating him for the nomination. So no need to worry about what Beto might do.
Autumn
(45,092 posts)Whatever thats supposed to mean. I'm not worried a bit about what Beto might do, I'm hoping like hell he will decide to run in 2020. I think he's ready right now and would be perfect.
BannonsLiver
(16,387 posts)When you respond to a question with what makes him ready it doesnt exactly sound like a ringing endorsement.
Autumn
(45,092 posts)they thought he wasn't ready and what would make him ready. I didn't get an answer.
In It to Win It
(8,252 posts)He was told to wait his turn; that he wasn't ready; he was too inexperienced.
Barack Obama did not care and I thank him for not listening.
PoindexterOglethorpe
(25,858 posts)gave the keynote speech at the Democratic National Convention.
Wow, everyone said. Someday he should run for President. But not in 2008, nope. He's too young, just a state senator, in no way is he ready for the presidency and besides, he'll have his chance a few years down the road. Maybe after Hillary completes two terms. But not now.
Don't know about anyone else, but I'm rather glad that man didn't listen to the conventional wisdom.
TxVietVet
(1,905 posts)Every 2 years the conservanazis will be cringing waiting for defeat. Gerrymandering and voting restrictions are the only things that will be the key to their hold on power to rule over Texas.
dalton99a
(81,512 posts)if he runs
BannonsLiver
(16,387 posts)Cornyn is far more popular than Cruz. Texas isnt there yet folks. Wont be for a while. Id bet ORourke knows that, which is why in the end his next move probably wont be another senate run.
LeftInTX
(25,345 posts)I don't think Cornyn has ever campaigned.
I agree he's more likeable. His office staff are nice. His local head staffer posed with Obama with pic on his desk.
His office has CSPAN on as oppposed Cruz who has Fox.
But that is where it ends. On the Senate floor, Cornyn has been a jerk.
His favorability ratings are much lower than Cruz. I think a lot of voters don't know who he is.
trc
(823 posts)Cornyn is more popular and less divisive than Cruz. If Beto were to lose a second run at being a Texas senator it would damage his credibility as a candidate...just look how some reacted on DU to his loss to Cruz. Beto needs to run for President/VP, in that role he may put Texas in play as a democratic flip and his coattails proved to be fairly long. Beto would be an extraordinary national candidate who would absolutely energize young voters all across the county.
In It to Win It
(8,252 posts)I think Beto came as close as he's ever gonna come to winning a statewide race in Texas as a Democrat for the foreseeable future, a close second.
I strongly think Beto would be wasting his time trying to win a statewide race in Texas in 2020 considering it will be a presidential election year and republican turnout is going to be significantly bigger than it was this year.
Beto performed better and got more votes (presidential election years and midterms) than any democratic senator or presidential candidate since god-knows-how-long, and it still wasn't enough. Assuming he runs in for Senate again in 2020, he'd would have to find a million new votes and probably need to get more votes in Texas than the President would get.
In It to Win It
(8,252 posts)The electorate in Texas is just too conservative. Republicans just outnumber everyone else BY A LOT. Unless we get at least a million Democrats to move to Texas by 2020, I don't think he will win. Since it will be a presidential year, there's gonna be a lot more ground to make up than this midterm. I don't think that will change in two years.
Mystery sage
(576 posts)At least more than the other guy what was his name corny..er something
Anyway should he run hes got this.
LeftInTX
(25,345 posts)dlk
(11,566 posts)Texas is the most gerrymandered state in the union and has a long history of voter suppression and in this last election, voting machines that flipped votes from Beto to Cruz. Before any Democrat can win a statewide election in Texas, no matter how many votes they actually receive, there will need to be major upgrades to the voting system.
mopinko
(70,111 posts)run for the next 2 years. build infrastructure in rural areas. register voters.
and make a fucking issue of election integrity NOW. not the day after an election. in time for the next election.
pretty sure he can afford to do so.
In It to Win It
(8,252 posts)mopinko
(70,111 posts)it doesnt take that much time to announce, or just put it out there that he is thinking about it.
SweetieD
(1,660 posts)worse than he did to Cruz.
andym
(5,443 posts)because Texas is still too red. That he came so close shows how good a candidate he is and will be.
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)That is the variable. Who can defeat Trump? It is going to be exponentially more difficult than we prefer to believe, given the severe benefit of a doubt to the incumbent and with all the resources at his disposal.
One year ago many Democrats were still holding onto the nutty idea that Trump would resign or be removed from office. He's a such a lowlife people wanted to play Happy Adjuster and think that Trump was therefore not a normal incumbent. His approval rating couldn't rise. He would be ousted by Mueller. All the typical Happy Adjuster flawed thinking.
Bottom line, Trump's approval now is considerably higher than November 2016 and the exit polling always indicates higher approval among actual voters than during those pre-election approval polls. It was scary to look at one state exit poll after another in vital states and see Trump's approval above 50% or almost 50%. I don't Democrats nationally want to acknowledge that type of thing. They still prefer to believe Trump is 42% and soon to plunge. An easy out. Meanwhile it was easy to look at one exit poll number after another and realize that the Republican in the race lost, but Trump in his place would have won handily.
We need a special candidate to defeat Donald Trump. As a handicapper I don't see anyone else who qualifies. I don't plan to follow campaign 2020 if we nominate a run of the mill candidate. It will not be successful, not in that situational environment against an incumbent whose party has been in power only one term.
If Beto runs I'll pay attention
saidsimplesimon
(7,888 posts)recover from election insomnia the past couple of days.
Until someone has announced they are running in 2020, it is to early for me to even discuss individuals. We will have an excellent field of candidates. The primary will decide the winner.