Fortunately there weren't too many outstanding votes

Link to tweet

read thru that guy's twitter feed, he is the official analyst for the AZ SoS.

Link to tweet

Pinal was always supposed to favor McSally.

Pima still has a 60k out which is supposed to heavily favor Sinema.

They are working thru weekends/holidays, counting about 80k per day.

By Sunday we should know, when McSally's 'firewall' supposedly coming in, about 200k from Maricopa... but many doubt that would be enough to overtake Sinema.. we'll see.

The reason why is the county has a sizeable Hispanic population and pretty most all of the 5% or so African Americans that call Arizona home live in that county. McSally has much more sympathetic populations outside of Maricopa and Pima, and the Flagstaff region.

areas have posted than the Dem Maricopa areas.. forgot who tweeted it but it was a reputable source.

I've also seen several tweets suggesting the McSally camp is pessimistic, I think we got this, as long as everything goes how it should.

votes early. In 2012, the late Maricopa votes went significantly to the democrat. If someone wants to push McSally gaining from Maricopa, they need to explain why they think the trend for McSally will defy the 2012 trend and the trend in all special elections this year. Yesterday, when Maricopa votes were reported with other counties, Sinema GAINED 12,000 vote.

Mohave went heavily for McSally. She had a 44% winning margin. In this batch McSally's margin was slightly less at 42%. If all the counties split the way they the counted votes do McSally will not win.

McSally dropping 2% from her Election Day advantage indicates that the late votes has a higher mix of Hispanics (doubt there are many African Americans in Mohave County). My guess is the percentage that minority votes make of the remaining votes in Pima and Maricopa counties will be much higher that their Election Day presence, that is not good for McSally.

If she doesn't get more than that from each, she is done. My guess, she is done unless the trend in Maricopa county shifts big in her favor (doubtful).

but imo that doesn't make sense in the context of this election... when was the last time there was actually a competitive Sen race in AZ... also it seems independents (about 1/3 of registered voters in Maricopa) are breaking for Sinema.

No reason to believe they won't trend significantly red. Many areas of Mariciopa are heavily red. The election day turnout all over the country was favoring Republicans, especially in the swing states.

I don't like Happy Adjuster mode. If we try to deny that those votes will favor McSally, then we are playing Happy Adjuster. Meanwhile there is a reason that Kornacki and others were matter of factly reporting that those late arriving ballots should favor McSally and perhaps by significant margin.

I wouldn't be worried at 100,000 in that batch but 200,000 could be enough

On Election Day, Sinema won Maricopa County by close to 1%. Data this year and data from 2012 says that what you are stating is more likely to not happen than happen. No one is playing happy adjuster, data is fucking data, full stop.

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Nate Silver and Nate Cohn both have moved AZ-Sen from 'tossup' to 'lean D'.

Wasserman's analysis suggests there are more Sinema votes from Maricopa to come in.

I do get your caution though, since Maricopa is not homogenous, but has pockets of deep red and blue and if the R+10 or higher comes through, then Sinema would've needed to build a big enough lead to withstand it.

The Pima dump should help Sinema, as well as provisonals .. they say alot of students handed those in.

Sunday's dump should likely tell us what is going on... I think that is the first dump that McSally thinks is their firewall.

McSally need +10 to win at this point, doubtful that she will get it. In 2012 in the Flake race, the late votes leaned toward the democrat because minority voters dropped off their votes late. Flake had to sweat out the counting of those votes. That trend should be worse for McSally.

is it county wide?

Should happen

Sinema just needs to weather the red counties, that is a big one down with little pick up.

She need angry White people dominating the late vote. Every election this year have shown that angry White people get their votes in early.

Your comment about "angry White people" is not accurate. This angry white person has always voted Dem. And I have spent as much time and energy as I could, helping to GOTV with minorities and total strangers, online and in person, in this election. In addition, the Hispanics and African Americans who vote Republican have some explaining to do (WTH???). Kanye, ring a bell?

We need to remember it's Dems vs. Rethugs. There are a rainbow of colors in each party, but of course the Rethugs lean heavily white. Key word...Lean.

https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0

You are better informed than a CBSN anchor and the pundit he had on the show to talk about Florida. The dumbo pundit said she wasn't concentrating on Arizona, thought there were about 50K votes pending. The anchor did not correct her (where was his producer whispering in his earpiece?). Just a pet peeve of mine, news stories that are factually incorrect.

My thoughts have been on the wild fires near LA. My granddaughter is driving back from a visit here in Phoenix. The PCH would be part of her normal route.

So far, I am confident that, without interference from the courts, all the Arizona votes will be counted. Chances are still good that Sinema pulls through for the win. The Governor can appoint McSally to McCain's slot if Republicans think she deserves a second shot. I am not looking forward to a special election that will require the resources of this one.

By about 100 votes a few years ago......