General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsCalls Rise For Beto O'Rourke To Run For President in 2020
Leo Vidal at PoliticusUSA
https://www.politicususa.com/2018/11/11/calls-rise-for-beto-orourke-to-run-for-president-in-2020.html
"SNIP....
In politics, some losses are better than others. Or, in the case of Beto ORourke, a loss may be almost as good as a win.
ORourke gained national prominence for his failed Texas Senate bid against Ted Cruz, where he lostin the deep-red state by just three percentage points.
The loss means that ORourke is a new progressive star, and he also is free to run for president in 2020.
The buzz around ORourke possibly running for the White House no doubt would have happened also if he had WON in his race against Cruz. But his biggest fans, including Democratic strategists, are saying his loss doesnt mean he shouldnt run for president.
.....SNIP"
Gothmog
(145,479 posts)Cornyn is getting old and could be vulnerable if the same trends continue
In It to Win It
(8,275 posts)The Texas electorate will be too much of a hurdle to get over, especially during a presidential election year where republican turnout will be at its highest. Texas, during a presidential election year, is just too conservative.
Beto performed better and got more votes than any other Democrat in Texas in god-knows-how-long. Beto will have to outperform what Ted Cruz did this year. Beto will have to perform better in Texas than the Republican President in 2020 to have a chance at beating Cornyn. I'm not convinced that will happen.
Gothmog
(145,479 posts)Texas is not a red or blue state but a non-voting state. If we can get voters out, then Texas will turn blue. Beto accelerated the process a great deal.
In It to Win It
(8,275 posts)In my opinion... based on past presidential year election trends, had this been 2020, Ted Cruz would have gotten around 200k to 400k more vote than Ted Cruz got in 2018. That's a massive amount to make up in only two years.
LovingA2andMI
(7,006 posts)In 2020, as we have to regain our seats back -- and he could help with a pick up in Texas considering how close he got this time.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Cruz is much more disliked than John Cornyn, whose approval in October was 39% to 34 disapproval (28% either don't know or have no opinion). Cruz, for comparison, had a 47% approval (higher than Cornyn) but also a 42% disapproval (higher, as well - including a 37% strongly disapproval, which is more than Cornyn's total disapproval) and he still beat Beto. In an election year, where turnout will be higher, I don't think Beto wins and if he loses, especially loses by a wider margin, it's hard to see him as a viable national candidate (think Wendy Davis who, just a few years ago, was the toast of the town and now no one is even talking about her).
Politics is fickle. One moment you're golden and the next you're tossed aside as a no body. Beto should look to run for governor or maybe a House race to give him national clout for a future presidential run.
Phoenix61
(17,009 posts)Run for senate and then Pres. He's young. He has plenty of time.
Liberal In Texas
(13,566 posts)In It to Win It
(8,275 posts)Not anytime soon. The next two senate races in Texas will happen during presidential years where Republican turnout will be at it's highest. He won't win.
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)Beto won't be that stupid. He might attempt senate much later in his career, as the demographics shift.
In the meantime he has more chance as president or Texas governor. Those governorships are considerably less beholden to statewide ideology than the senate races.
I like the presidential run because it fits everything I am looking for against Trump -- charismatic, young, male.
A female could succeed in 2020 if everything went perfectly but I believe a male has more margin for error.
In It to Win It
(8,275 posts)I also think he has a better chance winning the presidency than Cornyn's senate seat. I'm of the opinion that he won't any statewide race in Texas any time soon, at least not for the next 2 election cycles... and I really hope wrong about that in regarding any Democrat that runs a statewide race there.
JonLP24
(29,322 posts)Coming back up in their background.
vsrazdem
(2,177 posts)In It to Win It
(8,275 posts)...and after only 2 years as a Senator at the time he announced he was running, people also said Barack Obama was inexperienced. Versus Beto's 6 year as a congressman when he finishes his term.
JI7
(89,260 posts)Phoenix61
(17,009 posts)LBM20
(1,580 posts)Adenoid_Hynkel
(14,093 posts)Where, no matter how many times she insisted she wasn't running, people refused to listen and didn't try to get anyone else to run, leaving us with the Clinton-Sanders mess.
marble falls
(57,144 posts)In It to Win It
(8,275 posts)... and I doubt he'll win a Senate seat as a democrat during a Presidential election year.
marble falls
(57,144 posts)JCMach1
(27,566 posts)that's what the primaries are for... someone else will pick-up the ball if he fumbles...
marble falls
(57,144 posts)at Harvard while editing the Harvard Law Review.
I like Beto. I find him smart, fair-minded and sincere. I also don't think he's another Barack Obama. Can't we just season him a few terms?
In It to Win It
(8,275 posts)but rather state senate.
marble falls
(57,144 posts)United States Senator
from Illinois
In office
January 3, 2005 November 16, 2008
Preceded by Peter Fitzgerald
Succeeded by Roland Burris
Member of the Illinois Senate
from the 13th district
In office
January 8, 1997 November 4, 2004
Preceded by Alice Palmer
Succeeded by Kwame Raoul
I still say Beto is not another Barack Obama.
And I think Harvard Law counts for something.
In It to Win It
(8,275 posts)when choosing to run for President. If a potential candidate (especially one that the party agrees is a goods one) waits one term, that one-term wait may just be too late.
As an example, I thought in 2016 Joe Biden should have ran. I thought who better to pass the torch to than Joe Biden. I have no doubt he would have been the party's nominee and would have won against Trump. I have no doubt Joe Biden would have won PA, MI, and WI. Now, we're half-a-term later and I think it's too late for him. Potential 2020 candidates should be passed on to the next generation of future party leaders like Kamala Harris, Adam Schiff, Beto O'Rourke, Gavin Newsom (should he decide to come onto the national stage), etc.
Additionally, when good potential candidates are "too early", it gives people less to criticize. The more of a record a potential candidate builds, the more scrutiny they will get. The longer they wait, there's gonna be that one bad bill that will come someday a legislator may have had to support because the alternative was worse. Nobody gets credit for that, only scrutiny, because no one will care. Being in government is thankless.
JCMach1
(27,566 posts)I trust him to do what's best...
SweetieD
(1,660 posts)octoberlib
(14,971 posts)andym
(5,445 posts)and decides to run for President, he will be a formidable candidate because of his ability to both unite Democrats across the spectrum and inspire others, which only a few of the current candidates have, like Booker and Harris.
Kurt V.
(5,624 posts)libdem4life
(13,877 posts)He's got a lot of charismatic chops...but he's not Kennedy or Obama...yet. A BA from Columbia and 3 terms as State Senator...good, but needs more in his Resume.
Actually, VP would be a great place...puts him in the Capitol, doesn't need to be elected, and can amass a national support system.
Of course, who will run for President...I like Booker/Beto. As much as I'd like to see it, don't see a woman yet. He would upgrade any presidential candidate, IMO.
bpositive
(423 posts)This is what we need.
Buckeyeblue
(5,499 posts)Candidates will start announcing in April. Maybe before. At this point I see no front runners. Which I think is fine. It means our candidates will be fresh and interesting. They'll get to define their campaigns.
I really like Hillary. I've voted for her 3 times (2008 primary, 2016 primary and 20016 general election) but she battled to be able to define her campaign because she was too well known.
Our 2020 nominee shouldn't have that problem. Unless, of course, we end up nominating Al Gore or Joe Biden.
Raine
(30,540 posts)winning the presidency in just two years from now doesn't seem likely.