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applegrove

(118,745 posts)
Sun Nov 11, 2018, 04:38 PM Nov 2018

Calls Rise For Beto O'Rourke To Run For President in 2020

Leo Vidal at PoliticusUSA


https://www.politicususa.com/2018/11/11/calls-rise-for-beto-orourke-to-run-for-president-in-2020.html

"SNIP....

In politics, some losses are better than others. Or, in the case of Beto O’Rourke, a loss may be almost as good as a win.

O’Rourke gained national prominence for his failed Texas Senate bid against Ted Cruz, where he lostin the deep-red state by just three percentage points.

The loss means that O’Rourke is a new progressive star, and he also is free to run for president in 2020.

The “buzz” around O’Rourke possibly running for the White House no doubt would have happened also if he had WON in his race against Cruz. But his biggest fans, including Democratic strategists, are saying his loss doesn’t mean he shouldn’t run for president.

.....SNIP"

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Calls Rise For Beto O'Rourke To Run For President in 2020 (Original Post) applegrove Nov 2018 OP
I want Beto to run against senator Boxturtle in 2020 Gothmog Nov 2018 #1
If he does, I don't believe he will win. In It to Win It Nov 2018 #6
Texas has shifted blue a great deal this cycle compared to last Gothmog Nov 2018 #13
Texas has shifted blue, but it won't be enough by 2020. In It to Win It Nov 2018 #23
Beto should re-run for Senate... LovingA2andMI Nov 2018 #2
He'll lose in 2020 and if he loses in 2020, his national chances are likely dead. Drunken Irishman Nov 2018 #31
Nope. He has no experience. Phoenix61 Nov 2018 #3
He has more than the current seat warmer in the oval. n/t Liberal In Texas Nov 2018 #4
He won't win a Senate race in Texas. In It to Win It Nov 2018 #7
It would be incomparably stupid to try senate again in 2020 Awsi Dooger Nov 2018 #14
Agreed! In It to Win It Nov 2018 #20
I'm leaning women because one is less likely to have sexual assault or abuse JonLP24 Nov 2018 #28
Neither does Oprah Winfrey, but that didn't stop Lawrence ODonnel from thinking maybe she should. vsrazdem Nov 2018 #9
If he does announce, he'll be older than Obama's age at the time Obama's announced he was running... In It to Win It Nov 2018 #10
he has been serving in congress JI7 Nov 2018 #22
I stand corrected. Thanks! nt Phoenix61 Nov 2018 #35
He has said NO. So enough of this. He can do other things, maybe run for Senate again. LBM20 Nov 2018 #5
Seriously - this is Warren '16 all over again Adenoid_Hynkel Nov 2018 #30
Too soon. How about him taking on Cornyn or a House seat for a couple of terms first? marble falls Nov 2018 #8
He'll have served 3 terms as a congressman once he finishes his current term, still not enough? In It to Win It Nov 2018 #11
Six years is not enough. marble falls Nov 2018 #12
How long did Obama serve? IT's plenty of time... If he's truly not ready JCMach1 Nov 2018 #16
Seven years in Congress and three years in the Senate and years teaching Constitutional law ... marble falls Nov 2018 #17
Not 7 years in the US Congress.. In It to Win It Nov 2018 #18
and don't forget Harvard Law. marble falls Nov 2018 #25
People may disagree with me on this, but I believe that "too early" is always the better bet In It to Win It Nov 2018 #21
I think he's earned a few months off first to process and recharge JCMach1 Nov 2018 #15
Let this man rest and regroup. It is too early to talk about 2020. SweetieD Nov 2018 #19
He said no. What's wrong with people? octoberlib Nov 2018 #24
If he changes his mind andym Nov 2018 #26
I'm getting closer. but Kamala has the lighting Kurt V. Nov 2018 #27
He's wise to let the dust settle. A hasty decision at this time, does not seem to be his MO. libdem4life Nov 2018 #29
I'm on board with this bpositive Nov 2018 #32
I don't know how you organize that quickly after a loss Buckeyeblue Nov 2018 #33
When a candidate doesn't win their own state Raine Nov 2018 #34

Gothmog

(145,479 posts)
1. I want Beto to run against senator Boxturtle in 2020
Sun Nov 11, 2018, 04:41 PM
Nov 2018

Cornyn is getting old and could be vulnerable if the same trends continue

In It to Win It

(8,275 posts)
6. If he does, I don't believe he will win.
Sun Nov 11, 2018, 04:55 PM
Nov 2018

The Texas electorate will be too much of a hurdle to get over, especially during a presidential election year where republican turnout will be at its highest. Texas, during a presidential election year, is just too conservative.

Beto performed better and got more votes than any other Democrat in Texas in god-knows-how-long. Beto will have to outperform what Ted Cruz did this year. Beto will have to perform better in Texas than the Republican President in 2020 to have a chance at beating Cornyn. I'm not convinced that will happen.

Gothmog

(145,479 posts)
13. Texas has shifted blue a great deal this cycle compared to last
Sun Nov 11, 2018, 05:11 PM
Nov 2018

Texas is not a red or blue state but a non-voting state. If we can get voters out, then Texas will turn blue. Beto accelerated the process a great deal.

In It to Win It

(8,275 posts)
23. Texas has shifted blue, but it won't be enough by 2020.
Sun Nov 11, 2018, 05:57 PM
Nov 2018

In my opinion... based on past presidential year election trends, had this been 2020, Ted Cruz would have gotten around 200k to 400k more vote than Ted Cruz got in 2018. That's a massive amount to make up in only two years.

LovingA2andMI

(7,006 posts)
2. Beto should re-run for Senate...
Sun Nov 11, 2018, 04:42 PM
Nov 2018

In 2020, as we have to regain our seats back -- and he could help with a pick up in Texas considering how close he got this time.

 

Drunken Irishman

(34,857 posts)
31. He'll lose in 2020 and if he loses in 2020, his national chances are likely dead.
Sun Nov 11, 2018, 06:59 PM
Nov 2018

Cruz is much more disliked than John Cornyn, whose approval in October was 39% to 34 disapproval (28% either don't know or have no opinion). Cruz, for comparison, had a 47% approval (higher than Cornyn) but also a 42% disapproval (higher, as well - including a 37% strongly disapproval, which is more than Cornyn's total disapproval) and he still beat Beto. In an election year, where turnout will be higher, I don't think Beto wins and if he loses, especially loses by a wider margin, it's hard to see him as a viable national candidate (think Wendy Davis who, just a few years ago, was the toast of the town and now no one is even talking about her).

Politics is fickle. One moment you're golden and the next you're tossed aside as a no body. Beto should look to run for governor or maybe a House race to give him national clout for a future presidential run.

In It to Win It

(8,275 posts)
7. He won't win a Senate race in Texas.
Sun Nov 11, 2018, 04:58 PM
Nov 2018

Not anytime soon. The next two senate races in Texas will happen during presidential years where Republican turnout will be at it's highest. He won't win.

 

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
14. It would be incomparably stupid to try senate again in 2020
Sun Nov 11, 2018, 05:15 PM
Nov 2018

Beto won't be that stupid. He might attempt senate much later in his career, as the demographics shift.

In the meantime he has more chance as president or Texas governor. Those governorships are considerably less beholden to statewide ideology than the senate races.

I like the presidential run because it fits everything I am looking for against Trump -- charismatic, young, male.

A female could succeed in 2020 if everything went perfectly but I believe a male has more margin for error.

In It to Win It

(8,275 posts)
20. Agreed!
Sun Nov 11, 2018, 05:36 PM
Nov 2018

I also think he has a better chance winning the presidency than Cornyn's senate seat. I'm of the opinion that he won't any statewide race in Texas any time soon, at least not for the next 2 election cycles... and I really hope wrong about that in regarding any Democrat that runs a statewide race there.

JonLP24

(29,322 posts)
28. I'm leaning women because one is less likely to have sexual assault or abuse
Sun Nov 11, 2018, 06:47 PM
Nov 2018

Coming back up in their background.

In It to Win It

(8,275 posts)
10. If he does announce, he'll be older than Obama's age at the time Obama's announced he was running...
Sun Nov 11, 2018, 05:05 PM
Nov 2018

...and after only 2 years as a Senator at the time he announced he was running, people also said Barack Obama was inexperienced. Versus Beto's 6 year as a congressman when he finishes his term.

 

Adenoid_Hynkel

(14,093 posts)
30. Seriously - this is Warren '16 all over again
Sun Nov 11, 2018, 06:59 PM
Nov 2018

Where, no matter how many times she insisted she wasn't running, people refused to listen and didn't try to get anyone else to run, leaving us with the Clinton-Sanders mess.

In It to Win It

(8,275 posts)
11. He'll have served 3 terms as a congressman once he finishes his current term, still not enough?
Sun Nov 11, 2018, 05:06 PM
Nov 2018

... and I doubt he'll win a Senate seat as a democrat during a Presidential election year.

JCMach1

(27,566 posts)
16. How long did Obama serve? IT's plenty of time... If he's truly not ready
Sun Nov 11, 2018, 05:20 PM
Nov 2018

that's what the primaries are for... someone else will pick-up the ball if he fumbles...

marble falls

(57,144 posts)
17. Seven years in Congress and three years in the Senate and years teaching Constitutional law ...
Sun Nov 11, 2018, 05:25 PM
Nov 2018

at Harvard while editing the Harvard Law Review.

I like Beto. I find him smart, fair-minded and sincere. I also don't think he's another Barack Obama. Can't we just season him a few terms?

marble falls

(57,144 posts)
25. and don't forget Harvard Law.
Sun Nov 11, 2018, 06:38 PM
Nov 2018

United States Senator
from Illinois
In office
January 3, 2005 – November 16, 2008
Preceded by Peter Fitzgerald
Succeeded by Roland Burris

Member of the Illinois Senate
from the 13th district
In office
January 8, 1997 – November 4, 2004
Preceded by Alice Palmer
Succeeded by Kwame Raoul

I still say Beto is not another Barack Obama.

And I think Harvard Law counts for something.

In It to Win It

(8,275 posts)
21. People may disagree with me on this, but I believe that "too early" is always the better bet
Sun Nov 11, 2018, 05:50 PM
Nov 2018

when choosing to run for President. If a potential candidate (especially one that the party agrees is a goods one) waits one term, that one-term wait may just be too late.

As an example, I thought in 2016 Joe Biden should have ran. I thought who better to pass the torch to than Joe Biden. I have no doubt he would have been the party's nominee and would have won against Trump. I have no doubt Joe Biden would have won PA, MI, and WI. Now, we're half-a-term later and I think it's too late for him. Potential 2020 candidates should be passed on to the next generation of future party leaders like Kamala Harris, Adam Schiff, Beto O'Rourke, Gavin Newsom (should he decide to come onto the national stage), etc.

Additionally, when good potential candidates are "too early", it gives people less to criticize. The more of a record a potential candidate builds, the more scrutiny they will get. The longer they wait, there's gonna be that one bad bill that will come someday a legislator may have had to support because the alternative was worse. Nobody gets credit for that, only scrutiny, because no one will care. Being in government is thankless.

andym

(5,445 posts)
26. If he changes his mind
Sun Nov 11, 2018, 06:44 PM
Nov 2018

and decides to run for President, he will be a formidable candidate because of his ability to both unite Democrats across the spectrum and inspire others, which only a few of the current candidates have, like Booker and Harris.

 

libdem4life

(13,877 posts)
29. He's wise to let the dust settle. A hasty decision at this time, does not seem to be his MO.
Sun Nov 11, 2018, 06:51 PM
Nov 2018

He's got a lot of charismatic chops...but he's not Kennedy or Obama...yet. A BA from Columbia and 3 terms as State Senator...good, but needs more in his Resume.

Actually, VP would be a great place...puts him in the Capitol, doesn't need to be elected, and can amass a national support system.

Of course, who will run for President...I like Booker/Beto. As much as I'd like to see it, don't see a woman yet. He would upgrade any presidential candidate, IMO.

Buckeyeblue

(5,499 posts)
33. I don't know how you organize that quickly after a loss
Sun Nov 11, 2018, 08:22 PM
Nov 2018

Candidates will start announcing in April. Maybe before. At this point I see no front runners. Which I think is fine. It means our candidates will be fresh and interesting. They'll get to define their campaigns.

I really like Hillary. I've voted for her 3 times (2008 primary, 2016 primary and 20016 general election) but she battled to be able to define her campaign because she was too well known.

Our 2020 nominee shouldn't have that problem. Unless, of course, we end up nominating Al Gore or Joe Biden.

Raine

(30,540 posts)
34. When a candidate doesn't win their own state
Sun Nov 11, 2018, 08:34 PM
Nov 2018

winning the presidency in just two years from now doesn't seem likely.

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