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ProSense

(116,464 posts)
Thu Aug 16, 2012, 08:45 AM Aug 2012

Polls: Obama up 5 points in MI; no change in PA, leads by 6 points.

Poll: Obama Opens Up 5-Point Lead In Michigan

President Barack Obama's lead in Michigan has inched up to 5 points, a new poll released Thursday shows.

Obama leads MItt Romney, 49 percent to 44 percent, among likely Michigan voters in the latest automated survey from in-state pollster, Mitchell Research & Communications. Mitchell's previous two polls showed a dead heat between Obama and Romney in the state. Obama clung to a 1-point edge in the June survey, while Romney led by the same minuscule margin last month.

The latest poll, conducted on Monday, shows that Romney's selection of Paul Ryan has had no immediate impact on the race in Michigan. Obama's lead remains the same even when the names Ryan and Vice President Joe Biden are included in the survey question.

- more -

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/poll-obama-opens-up-5-point-lead-in

That's a right leaning-poll.

<...>

The Presidential Election in Pennsylvania

President Obama has led Mitt Romney in every Franklin & Marshall College Poll since August 2011 (see Figure 1). The president currently leads Romney among registered voters in Pennsylvania 44% to 38% with 15% undecided. Allocating voters who lean to a candidate produces a similar advantage for the president, 47% to 42%, but shows that 7% of voters are truly undecided. President Obama leads in most regions of the state, including Philadelphia, Allegheny County, the southwest and southeast, and he has comfortable leads among young voters, non-whites and women (see Attachment A). Mitt Romney holds an advantage among working-class whites.

- more -

https://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyaug12_1.pdf

Here's the trendline chart:




This is why Mitt is in a panic
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021139434


28 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Polls: Obama up 5 points in MI; no change in PA, leads by 6 points. (Original Post) ProSense Aug 2012 OP
We should probably panic. Curtland1015 Aug 2012 #1
Me PADemD Aug 2012 #25
A mere 5 point spread in Michigan is something to be VERY worried about. NOT good news. nt Romulox Aug 2012 #2
It's a Republican pollster. It's great news, especially since it's up from the previous. n/t ProSense Aug 2012 #3
If the results aren't reliable, why post them? Not really time for the pollyanna act, either way. Romulox Aug 2012 #4
If Michigan was really close both Romney and Obama would be spending time & money WI_DEM Aug 2012 #6
That's a much better argument then "Here's a poll--ignore the results (which are good for us!)". nt Romulox Aug 2012 #7
What is up with you? Curtland1015 Aug 2012 #8
"She" posted. : ) n/t ProSense Aug 2012 #11
My mistake! Curtland1015 Aug 2012 #16
I'm here to discuss politics. You? nt Romulox Aug 2012 #12
Wait ProSense Aug 2012 #15
The word is "than." n/t ProSense Aug 2012 #10
The results are ProSense Aug 2012 #9
YOU presented this data. Don't argue to me that it's crap. nt Romulox Aug 2012 #13
You're upset that the President is leading. ProSense Aug 2012 #14
Nonsense. I was discussing the poll results YOU presented. Obviously not the result you wanted. nt Romulox Aug 2012 #17
Speaking of ProSense Aug 2012 #18
The number for Obama is trending up, so it is good news. Merlot Aug 2012 #24
A bump from the VP pick is expected and that's his home state CabCurious Aug 2012 #28
I've heard Mitchell is a GOP pollster and at one time he had Romney ahead WI_DEM Aug 2012 #5
I live in Michigan DissidentVoice Aug 2012 #19
It doesn't matter in PA - voter suppression is legal TrogL Aug 2012 #20
I had the same response. magnifisense Aug 2012 #21
Not Convinced modrepub Aug 2012 #22
Yep 750,000+ don't have state ID's underpants Aug 2012 #23
Scary thought CabCurious Aug 2012 #26
But...but...but... regnaD kciN Aug 2012 #27

Romulox

(25,960 posts)
4. If the results aren't reliable, why post them? Not really time for the pollyanna act, either way.
Thu Aug 16, 2012, 09:11 AM
Aug 2012

WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)
6. If Michigan was really close both Romney and Obama would be spending time & money
Thu Aug 16, 2012, 09:14 AM
Aug 2012

there and so far they aren't.

Romulox

(25,960 posts)
7. That's a much better argument then "Here's a poll--ignore the results (which are good for us!)". nt
Thu Aug 16, 2012, 09:15 AM
Aug 2012

Curtland1015

(4,404 posts)
8. What is up with you?
Thu Aug 16, 2012, 09:19 AM
Aug 2012

He posted a right leaning poll and told us it leans right. That doesn't mean we should ignore it, only that we should keep that in mind when evaluating the data.

Why the harshness?

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
15. Wait
Thu Aug 16, 2012, 09:25 AM
Aug 2012

"I'm here to discuss politics. You?"

Nitpicking and being upset that a right-leaning poll shows the President ahead is discussing politics?

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
9. The results are
Thu Aug 16, 2012, 09:19 AM
Aug 2012

"If the results aren't reliable, why post them? Not really time for the pollyanna act, either way."

...what they are. People post Gallup polls and those are right leaning, albeit not as much.

You deemed it "not good news," yet the poll averages are showing about 6 points.

Why? Some polls have the President up by double digits and others do not.

A five point lead in a right-leaning poll is very good news.

Sorry to disappoint you.

Romulox

(25,960 posts)
17. Nonsense. I was discussing the poll results YOU presented. Obviously not the result you wanted. nt
Thu Aug 16, 2012, 09:39 AM
Aug 2012

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
18. Speaking of
Thu Aug 16, 2012, 09:44 AM
Aug 2012

"Nonsense. I was discussing the poll results YOU presented. Obviously not the result you wanted. "

..."nonsense: You said a right leaning poll, which had the President up by one point previously, but now shows him leading by 5 points is "NOT good news."

WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)
5. I've heard Mitchell is a GOP pollster and at one time he had Romney ahead
Thu Aug 16, 2012, 09:13 AM
Aug 2012

and so now to be ahead in this poll by five-points is pretty good.

DissidentVoice

(813 posts)
19. I live in Michigan
Thu Aug 16, 2012, 10:58 AM
Aug 2012

I have seen a few Romney bumper-stickers and yard signs, but not a lot.

This is still a fairly strong union state, the election of Rick Perry notwithstanding, and Mitt's willingness to throw the auto industry down the pipe still rankles here a bit.

Really, I don't give a lot of credence to polls like this. Too much can happen between now and November.

I remember 1988, when a lot of people thought that Mike Dukakis was a shoo-in for the WH...then GHWB's Lee Atwater-led machine did their bit.

modrepub

(3,502 posts)
22. Not Convinced
Thu Aug 16, 2012, 06:16 PM
Aug 2012

Philly will go Dem by wide margins. The word is out and people are motivated. They'll be disenfranchising Repub voters there too; a point lost to most repubs is Philly posts 50-100k votes for their candidates during an election, which is more then all but about a dozen counties in the state. Women in the suburbs of Philly generally hold the key to the election anyway. What are they gonna think when they learn about "person-hood" candidate Mitt picked?

regnaD kciN

(26,045 posts)
27. But...but...but...
Thu Aug 16, 2012, 09:34 PM
Aug 2012

...this doesn't jibe with the post-Ryan news coverage, in which the only polls to be cited are ones showing the GOP ticket drawing even or pulling ahead!



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