the vice-presidential pick has historically been of trivial significance in terms of impact on the election.
and as the vice-presidential nominee per se, ryan will indeed have trivial significance in terms of such impact.

however, as the number two person on the rmoney fund-raising team, he's likely to have a rather large impact (although, fortunately, he's likely to have a favorable impact for the obama team as well!)

if he sways nobody's vote directly, he can still have a significant impact on rmoney's chances by brining in additional campaign loot.

i can't really fault silver for not addressing this concern, because his business is stuck relying on historical data and historical results to inform his model. it's not at all easy to quantify the impact of the changing rules of the game that make money so much more important than in the past.

We can't beat them if they lock up those three states.

to create the impression that there is a rally acknowledges that there isn't one.

CNN:

whether there is one or not. I am not saying I'm not going to work hard to get Obama re-elected, but the media wants to push this breathless narrative about how it's so very close.

be down the typical 4 soon? I don't get it

after the party's convention. It evens back out, iirc.

best a one point bump. The average is four points. The math does not look good for Mitt.

is what doesn't make sense. A bounce goes away..true. But you only lose what you gained. 1 for him. Relating a bounce of 4 (in terms of losing it) has nothing to do with him. they are mutually exclusive

Nate silver always calms them down