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The current bull market that started under President Obama in 2009 is dead. I will leave it the verdict of history if Trump killed it.
Achilleaze
(15,543 posts)republicans are infamous for their economic FAIL, as far as the average citizen goes. But will the rich republicans get richer in the midst of the republican econo-clusterf*ck? You can bet your keister on it.
* aka republcian Draft-Dodger-in-Chief
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)trumpsters will be applauding their boy.
Unemployment, wage increases, inflation, etc., are better measures when related to politics. Right now, I don't think we have much economically to use against trump other than ill-advised tax cuts, tariffs starting trade war, and deficits. His ignorant white wing supporters, and even those who might go for a Democrat, are probably too stupid to understand.
While it's obvious that Obama's economy has carried us where we are, the market has still done a lot better than I thought it would under trump (not because of him, but in spite).
Inauguration 2017
Dow 19,827.25.
S&P 2,271.31.
Nasdaq 5,555.33
Today's close
Dow 25,027
S&P 2700
Nasdaq 7158
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)2nd quarter GDP 4.2%
3rd quarter GDP 3.5%
4th quarter GDP 2.5% (projected)
He couldn't even get two 4%+ GDP quarters in a row out of his tax cut.
It is more likely than not the economy will be slower next year than this year.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)the best area to attack trump on, IMO. There's plenty of other stuff, though.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)Hoyt
(54,770 posts)OilemFirchen
(7,143 posts)Unemployment and the CPI are lagging indicators.
That is, the market is a predictor of future events, while unemployment and the CPI will only reflect the economy in retrospect.
Likely the best leading indicator is the bond yield curve, because treasuries are safe havens. As of today the 2 to 10 year yield curve is 11 basis points from inflection. (For reference, the year began with a 54 basis point spread. When Trump took office it was at 128.)
All conventional indications suggest that we are entering a bear market.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)Leading Indicators are worthless attracting votes, especially when the unemployment rate is very low. Thats my point.
OilemFirchen
(7,143 posts)There are no guarantees, of course, but your assumption that the market will be performing well in 2020 is belied by the best indicators. There's no need to explain to Trump supporters what's going on with the economy now if it turns south in the next two years.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)it goes up 1000. If you were yelling about the 600 to show how bad trump is, it was negated and then some the following week.
I do believe well get to the 2020 election with a relatively good economy, unemployment low, inflation relatively low, consumer sentiment high like it is now, etc. Grousing about trumps economy wont work, except among the choir.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)None of us have crystal balls but the indices indicate the market and the economy will be lower and slower in 2019 and 2020 than it is now.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)Economics 101
OilemFirchen
(7,143 posts)It's because it indicates that investors are moving into treasuries. and that's because treasuries are a better investment.
People can pooh-pooh leading indicators as woo to their hearts content, but they are actually useful because they actually reflect actual sentiment based on the actual economy.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)Unemployment, GDP, and inflation are backwards looking. Trump tried to juice the economy to win the mid terms with his massive tax cuts. His party still got shellacked. Now he has no tools to stimulate the economy.
OilemFirchen
(7,143 posts)The NYSE Composite Index (NYA) is down 680.74 points YTD. That's a 5% drop.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)Roughly 8.7%.
1/5/16: 11,247.69
12/4/18: 12,221.98
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)OilemFirchen
(7,143 posts)Note that it peaked in January. The trend this year has been down:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/nya/charts
On edit: Peak corrected for this year.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)OilemFirchen
(7,143 posts)Relying on one index (the DOW in this case) is a recipe for disaster.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)They are constantly throwing off poor performing stocks and replacing them.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)OilemFirchen
(7,143 posts)If your investments are atypically tied to these indices, you're doing okay. If your market predictions are, and you've gambled long... not so much.
Over 2,000 stocks are covered in the index, of which over 1,600 are from United States corporations and over 360 are foreign listings; however foreign companies are very prevalent among the largest companies in the index: of the 100 companies in the index having the largest market capitalization (and thus the largest impact on the index), more than half (55) are non-U.S. issues.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_indicator
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)Heck, use the Bitcoin Index if you want.
OilemFirchen
(7,143 posts)Reuters: Dollar weak as U.S. Treasury yield curve inversion sparks recession fears
MarketWatch: Brace for a 15% plunge in S&P 500 next year if the Treasury yield curve fully inverts
CNBC: Treasury yields continue slide with traders wary of curve inversion
Bloomberg: The U.S. Yield Curve Just Inverted. Thats Huge.
Staph
(6,253 posts)He (and his corporation, who shall remain nameless) say that the signs point to a recession as early as next summer or as late as the beginning of 2020. We are meeting again in February to move my investments out of stocks and into safer bonds.
.99center
(1,237 posts)Isn't going to be trickling down anytime soon?