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how likely is President Pelosi in 2019? (Original Post) TalenaGor Dec 2018 OP
Hard to say, the rules that are vigorously applied to all Democrats are never applied Eliot Rosewater Dec 2018 #1
Close to zero Jarqui Dec 2018 #2
Both houses of Congress have to confirm a VP replacement Buckeyeblue Dec 2018 #7
Therefore, it would be highly unlikely the GOP would impeach Trump Jarqui Dec 2018 #19
But they might not have a choice Buckeyeblue Dec 2018 #22
I already thought of that Jarqui Dec 2018 #28
Agreed...with the Senate controlled by repugs no one has to resign Buckeyeblue Dec 2018 #30
Think of who else they would try to put in Jarqui Dec 2018 #33
What a mess is right! Buckeyeblue Dec 2018 #34
My personal fantasy musette_sf Dec 2018 #3
I'm right there with ya! TalenaGor Dec 2018 #5
I like that dream. SHRED Dec 2018 #6
Yes! pandr32 Dec 2018 #21
What a Dream! peggysue2 Dec 2018 #26
Lol Sugarcoated Dec 2018 #4
High? No manor321 Dec 2018 #8
that wasn't there that bit about the transition team and didn't pence leave the transition team? TalenaGor Dec 2018 #18
Is there a number less than 0%? brooklynite Dec 2018 #9
Wellllllll, Wellstone ruled Dec 2018 #10
Pretty much zero chance. Garrett78 Dec 2018 #11
A snowball in hell chance. Autumn Dec 2018 #12
Sweet! Garrett78 Dec 2018 #15
no chance beachbum bob Dec 2018 #13
Absolute ZERO, and that's equivalent to -273.15C or -459.67F. elocs Dec 2018 #14
Zero and none! Floyd R. Turbo Dec 2018 #16
the senate would never allow a president pelosi. Takket Dec 2018 #17
they'd obviously not allow a Democrat at all, especially a woman... TalenaGor Dec 2018 #20
Same chance that Obama was born in Pittsburgh Awsi Dooger Dec 2018 #23
Doesn't anyone recall Nixon? There was no vacancy. A refresher... Hekate Dec 2018 #24
Hell freezes over and Jesus moves in to set up shop... cynatnite Dec 2018 #25
Zero percent. RockRaven Dec 2018 #27
y'all are killing my happy dreams here lol TalenaGor Dec 2018 #29
Not at all... regnaD kciN Dec 2018 #31
absolutely zero onenote Dec 2018 #32
Extremely unlikely oberliner Dec 2018 #35

Jarqui

(10,130 posts)
2. Close to zero
Wed Dec 5, 2018, 08:12 PM
Dec 2018

Trump/Pence will name a GOP replacement if they have to resign. As long as they do not resign at the same time, it is almost impossible.

Republican Minority Leader Gerald Ford replaced VP Spiro Agnew and then President Richard Nixon when Dems held the House.

Jarqui

(10,130 posts)
19. Therefore, it would be highly unlikely the GOP would impeach Trump
Wed Dec 5, 2018, 08:38 PM
Dec 2018

to turn the White House over to a Democrat.

The GOP just stole one of Obama's picks for the Supreme Court and put another on the Supreme Court with a very sketchy alleged past of sexually assaulting women - sometimes while heavily intoxicated. They're not going to do what is right or fair.

Nixon's concern with the 25th Amendment years before - when it was being considered - was that a President should not have to contend with a VP who was not ideologically compatible. Nixon wanted to use the Electoral College to avoid that. At the time of Agnew's resignation, Dems controlled the House and Senate.

I do not see the unethical, partisan Republicans ever going along with Nancy Pelosi as President (with the fear that she might add Hillary as VP and then resign). The deadheads of Trump's base - their heads would explode. It is not going to happen.

Buckeyeblue

(5,502 posts)
22. But they might not have a choice
Wed Dec 5, 2018, 09:33 PM
Dec 2018

Let's just go out on a limb and say 45 or Pence are forced to resign. Then we have a president without a VP (which was the case when Johnson become president). Whoever is president has to pick someone that can be confirmed by both the House and the Senate. Maybe the House refuses to confirm any of their choices. At that point, Speaker is next in line...

This is a long shot to be sure. But these are strange and twisted times (as Hunter S Thompson would write), so I think all possibilities, at least for now, must be considered.

Jarqui

(10,130 posts)
28. I already thought of that
Wed Dec 5, 2018, 10:02 PM
Dec 2018

The Senate would just drag out the impeachment proceedings until the 2020 election.

Given what they put in Flynn's memo, they've got a bunch of work to do before they wrap up - at least six months or something like that. The people at the lower end of the Trump hierarchy will likely get dealt with first.

if Trump has a heart attack and dies, Nancy would become president if Pence has already resigned. Knowing that, they probably wouldn't let Pence resign - again, just drag it out.

The chances of it happening are really slim - probably, both Trump and Pence have to pass away.

Jarqui

(10,130 posts)
33. Think of who else they would try to put in
Wed Dec 5, 2018, 10:58 PM
Dec 2018

Ryan? McConnell?

Pence as president is not going to be much better than Trump.
That guy is messed up too. There is something wrong with him.

I do not think the GOP would offer any good alternatives.
I never forgave Gerald Ford for the Nixon pardon but he'd be better than anything they seem to have to offer in leadership today.

With control of the House, hopefully, it'll be ok until 2020.

We've gone from what I thought was the best president of my lifetime, Obama, to arguably the worst president in American history.

What a mess!

Buckeyeblue

(5,502 posts)
34. What a mess is right!
Thu Dec 6, 2018, 06:58 AM
Dec 2018

President Pence in some ways would be worse. He would push the fundamentalist agenda even harder than 45 has. With the exception of judicial appointments there isn't much in the way of legislation that he could get through.

I think the one big difference between Pence and Ford is that Pence's hands are dirty with this mess, where Ford wasn't involved because he replaced Nixon's VP who had to resign.

I think it is more likely that both 45 and Pence stay in place, even if they don't run in 2020.

Of course, we could find out something tomorrow or next week that makes me change my mind on this. But, with the house going Dem, the only VP nominee who could get through would be someone who was very centrist and not a threat to run for President.

musette_sf

(10,206 posts)
3. My personal fantasy
Wed Dec 5, 2018, 08:13 PM
Dec 2018

is that she picks HRC as Veep. Then Pelosi steps down after a decent interval and hands off to HRC. Then there's an HRC/Beto ticket in 2020. Then HRC does not run for re-election in 2024 and Beto is the candidate.

I can dream, can't I?

 

manor321

(3,344 posts)
8. High? No
Wed Dec 5, 2018, 08:15 PM
Dec 2018

No one has followed the Russia probe as closely as Seth Abramson and so far he doesn't see good publicly available evidence that Pence is involved.

I believe Pence is quite possibly involved but based on evidence we have, there isn't much there.

TalenaGor

(1,104 posts)
18. that wasn't there that bit about the transition team and didn't pence leave the transition team?
Wed Dec 5, 2018, 08:38 PM
Dec 2018

I realize I'm not a hundred percent well-versed in all this LOL

brooklynite

(94,738 posts)
9. Is there a number less than 0%?
Wed Dec 5, 2018, 08:16 PM
Dec 2018

Name ANY sequence of events that would result in Trump and Pence beings impeached and convicted simultaneously.

 

Wellstone ruled

(34,661 posts)
10. Wellllllll,
Wed Dec 5, 2018, 08:16 PM
Dec 2018

if one has been paying attention,I would put some serious coinage down on this. Just caught a Stephie miller Malcolm Nance interview, if Pence is talking to Team Mueller,well Pelosi won't be the one sitting in the Oval office,but,if Pence stonewalls Team Mueller,it will be President Pelosi.

elocs

(22,609 posts)
14. Absolute ZERO, and that's equivalent to -273.15C or -459.67F.
Wed Dec 5, 2018, 08:20 PM
Dec 2018

In other words, NO, NO, NO, a million times NO!

Not every good or important Democrat needs to run for president because we need them in other places as well.

TalenaGor

(1,104 posts)
20. they'd obviously not allow a Democrat at all, especially a woman...
Wed Dec 5, 2018, 08:47 PM
Dec 2018

I mean isn't that where we are now? Isn't the goal to eliminate all Democratic control through any means necessary?

The goal is certainly not to uphold election integrity....



Hekate

(90,827 posts)
24. Doesn't anyone recall Nixon? There was no vacancy. A refresher...
Wed Dec 5, 2018, 09:47 PM
Dec 2018

Nixon was in deep Shinola
On examination, it turned out VP Agnew was a bribe-taking crook
Nixon was in deeper Shinola as the Watergate Hearings hit critical mass
Agnew was forced to resign
Immediately, a GOP member of the House was picked to take his place, thus: VP Jerry Ford
The Watergate Hearings -- well, I hope you know the rest. Nixon was forced to resign.
Gerald Ford was sworn in as president
The Speaker of the House was never in play. At all. Ever.

Now, if both Nixon and Agnew had gone down in a plane crash with no survivors -- then the Speaker would have stepped in.

Based on this history, I'm guessing Nancy Pelosi will not be President.

RockRaven

(15,003 posts)
27. Zero percent.
Wed Dec 5, 2018, 10:00 PM
Dec 2018

Mitch McConnell and the GOPers in the Senate will NEVER, N-E-V-E-R, N---E---V---E---R vote to remove both Trump and Pence simultaneously.

Even if both were impeached, AND the Senate were to vote to remove whoever's trial was first (already in very unlikely territory here), the Senate GOPers would then have the remaining POTUS nominate a replacement VP and vote to confirm that new VP (and wait for the House to do the same) before even taking up the second trial.

Likewise, I see zero chance of both Pence and Trump resigning *simultaneously*. Similar play as impeachments -- at best you'd get one to resign, and the other would refuse to resign until the House and Senate confirm the new VP.

The GOP will NEVER willingly give up the executive branch to the Democrats. Especially not when there are very easy methods to avoid doing so, as I've indicated. Even if Trump and Pence both need to go, just do one, add a VP, do the second. Viola! New Repuke POTUS. No Dem/Pelosi POTUS.

TalenaGor

(1,104 posts)
29. y'all are killing my happy dreams here lol
Wed Dec 5, 2018, 10:15 PM
Dec 2018

Potus seat was won by Clinton dammit.....it's rightfully ours and I want it back lol

regnaD kciN

(26,045 posts)
31. Not at all...
Wed Dec 5, 2018, 10:55 PM
Dec 2018

If we get enough Republicans to join us to impeach and convict Trump, it will only be on the condition that Pence, or another Republican, succeeds him. If dirt emerges on Pence and he gets removed from office first, said Republicans will refuse to continue proceedings against Trump until he has named a new V.P. and that choice has been confirmed.

It's much the way it happened during Watergate: the case was building against Nixon, then suddenly Agnew was caught in a corruption investigation and had to resign. At that point, the proceedings against Nixon essentially came to a halt until Ford had been sworn in as the new V.P. Until that point, even "shaky" Republicans in Congress were going to take a firm stand against any further actions until they were sure a Republican would be President through the remainder of Nixon's term.

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