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We couldn't even get two 4% GDP quarters out of Trump's tax cuts. (Original Post) DemocratSinceBirth Dec 2018 OP
Fiscal tools? Beakybird Dec 2018 #1
The Democratic House isn't going to pass a tax cut for the rich. DemocratSinceBirth Dec 2018 #3
democratic house wont be able to pass ANY legislation that will become law beachbum bob Dec 2018 #17
If we hit a recession in 2019 or 2020, he's absolutely done politically. bearsfootball516 Dec 2018 #2
Except Bush was finishing his second term. DemocratSinceBirth Dec 2018 #4
the economy is not on track to suit donnie's political fortunes unblock Dec 2018 #10
It doesn't seem like nearly enough time for a slowdown and a recovery. DemocratSinceBirth Dec 2018 #14
not in the eyes of the public, anyway. unblock Dec 2018 #15
It's hard to see an economy as good as the one going in 2016. DemocratSinceBirth Dec 2018 #16
Are you remembering the same 2016? former9thward Dec 2018 #19
he's gonna need a war 0rganism Dec 2018 #13
Anyone who took any level of economics Guppy Dec 2018 #5
they weren't really trying to stimulate the economy. unblock Dec 2018 #8
That's a given Guppy Dec 2018 #18
except they didn't really stimulate the economy much at all. unblock Dec 2018 #20
I agree Guppy Dec 2018 #21
indeed. this one will be painful for a number of reasons. unblock Dec 2018 #22
He'll call everyone Guppy Dec 2018 #23
Fiscal policy should be neutral. DemocratSinceBirth Dec 2018 #9
i think we should run a balanced budget or surplus when the economy is good unblock Dec 2018 #12
#trumpSlump riversedge Dec 2018 #6
and a big chunk of the extra growth we did get was actually tariff-induced unblock Dec 2018 #7
Tax cuts as they were done seem to show... WeekiWater Dec 2018 #11
The yield curve inverted. Winter is coming. Johonny Dec 2018 #24
 

beachbum bob

(10,437 posts)
17. democratic house wont be able to pass ANY legislation that will become law
Thu Dec 6, 2018, 12:32 PM
Dec 2018

unless McConnel and trump agrees

and thats about 100% unlikely

bearsfootball516

(6,377 posts)
2. If we hit a recession in 2019 or 2020, he's absolutely done politically.
Thu Dec 6, 2018, 12:09 PM
Dec 2018

The only thing keeping him afloat right now is the economy. His 42 percent approval is stunningly low considering where the economy is right now. If we hit a recession, that's going to drop 10 points and he'll be completely toxic come 2020, similar to Bush in 2008.

unblock

(52,328 posts)
10. the economy is not on track to suit donnie's political fortunes
Thu Dec 6, 2018, 12:18 PM
Dec 2018

it's hard to see a path to the economy looking even as good as now during the run-up to november 2020.

most likely, we'll be in a contraction or just coming out of it, with its effects still fresh on voters' minds.

hard to see how he either gets though it with a clearly booming economy after or avoids the contraction entirely.

unblock

(52,328 posts)
15. not in the eyes of the public, anyway.
Thu Dec 6, 2018, 12:30 PM
Dec 2018

from an economist's perspective, we could easily have a contraction that lasts, say, 9 months, from 2019q2 through 2019q4.

technically, we'd be in a recovery in 2020, but it's not likely to feel that way for voters.

former9thward

(32,082 posts)
19. Are you remembering the same 2016?
Thu Dec 6, 2018, 12:59 PM
Dec 2018
U.S. economic growth slowed in 2016 to 1.6%

WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy lost momentum in the final three months of 2016, closing out a year in which growth turned in the weakest performance in five years, with the yearly rate down to 1.6 percent.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-economic-growth-slowed-in-2016-to-1-9/

This is the main reason Clinton lost the upper Midwest.
 

Guppy

(444 posts)
5. Anyone who took any level of economics
Thu Dec 6, 2018, 12:11 PM
Dec 2018

id you never stimulate a good economy. You leave stimulation for the recession. We played our hand and now we are fucked.

unblock

(52,328 posts)
8. they weren't really trying to stimulate the economy.
Thu Dec 6, 2018, 12:14 PM
Dec 2018

they were trying to pillage and loot the treasury, period.

the old "stimulate the economy" crap was pure b.s. to try to fool the masses.

 

Guppy

(444 posts)
18. That's a given
Thu Dec 6, 2018, 12:53 PM
Dec 2018

but to do it will eventually cause instability. Because you over stimulated the economy interest rates go up because the Fed is trying to curb inflation. Then everything starts to tumble.

unblock

(52,328 posts)
20. except they didn't really stimulate the economy much at all.
Thu Dec 6, 2018, 01:04 PM
Dec 2018

we increased the deficit by an insane amount for a measure that barely goosed the economy at a time when it didn't need it.

everything is starting to tumble primarily because of lack of confidence in donnie's economic management as he's taken fiscal stimulus out of the picture due to blowing it at the wrong time, and then he launches this idiotic random tariff nonsense that makes any kind of planning a minefield. that and the current expansion is already very long in the tooth.

imho, we'll have one more rate hike and then the economy and the financial markets will probably talk them out of any more.

 

Guppy

(444 posts)
21. I agree
Thu Dec 6, 2018, 01:15 PM
Dec 2018

we sold two properties last year. I figured get all the money you can while the market was hot. We are already seeing the slowdown in autos and real estate is slow. Next year could be ugly.

unblock

(52,328 posts)
22. indeed. this one will be painful for a number of reasons.
Thu Dec 6, 2018, 01:35 PM
Dec 2018

most obviously because we have an idiot in charge. even presidents who couldn't get anything through congress were able to provide the comfort of a president in charge, consoler-in-chief, etc. this one will only make everything actually worse *and* feel worse.

unblock

(52,328 posts)
12. i think we should run a balanced budget or surplus when the economy is good
Thu Dec 6, 2018, 12:24 PM
Dec 2018

and run a deficit when we're in a contraction, partly to help people in need and partly to stimulate the economy when it needs it.

of course, i think "stimulate the economy" is most effective by doing things like making sure poor people have money (as they tend to spend it locally, which bests stimulates the economy) or increasing government spending directly.

cutting tax rates for the rich helps the economy only in relatively rare situation, like when there is plenty of demand but commerce is constrained by a lack of investment capital. only then *might* a tax cut for the rich make sense in terms of the overall economy.

unblock

(52,328 posts)
7. and a big chunk of the extra growth we did get was actually tariff-induced
Thu Dec 6, 2018, 12:13 PM
Dec 2018

companies trying to get orders in before tariffs hit, which at best just shifted growth from a later quarter to an earlier quarter, and at worse is a negative dislocation and overall drag on the economy.

 

WeekiWater

(3,259 posts)
11. Tax cuts as they were done seem to show...
Thu Dec 6, 2018, 12:18 PM
Dec 2018

an initial large shift in money that is recognized by the markets and other specific investment sectors. Then it becomes more stable as it becomes a known quantity. Much of it gets invested, hoarded, or spent on high ticket items. None of which means it is spent in a way that helps across the board. The initial shift simply generated a bubble. The small tax cuts at the lower end were simply dumped into the economy. A portion of the high end tax cuts were dumped in areas reflected in the GDP as well. They use the economy as a selling point for their tax cuts but it's little more than a payback to supporters, buying future support, and a love for greed.

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