Early Presidential Buzz Can Be an Omen or an Illusion.

'Beto-mania ratcheted up another few notches this week when the left-activist group MoveOn published a 2020 presidential straw poll of its membership. O’Rourke finished first, with 15.6 percent, just ahead of Joe Biden at 14.95 percent, followed then by Bernie Sanders at 13.15 percent, Kamala Harris at 10.02 percent, and Elizabeth Warren at 6.42 percent.

It’s a very early measurement of popularity in a very limited audience, featuring a vast field that produced scattered results. But still, a previously obscure West Texas congressman beating all these famous names in the vibrant left corner of the Democratic universe is impressive. Between them, after all, Biden and Sanders have four national campaigns and 64 years on Capitol Hill.

But it’s as good a time as any to keep in mind that very early presidential front-runners don’t always succeed or even formally become candidates. In 2007, Pew did an assessment of this phenomenon:'>>>

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/12/early-presidential-buzz-can-be-an-omen-or-an-illusion.html?