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comradebillyboy

(10,147 posts)
Thu Dec 13, 2018, 12:59 PM Dec 2018

O'Rourke Leapfrogs Most of the Democratic Field

CNN updated its rankings of the 10 Democrats most likely to win their party’s nomination to run against President Trump in 2020.

Kamala Harris
Beto O’Rourke
Joe Biden
Cory Booker
Elizabeth Warren
Bernie Sanders
Amy Klobuchar
Sherrod Brown
Julian Castro
Kirsten Gillibrand

https://politicalwire.com/2018/12/13/orourke-leapfrogs-most-of-the-democratic-field/

44 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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O'Rourke Leapfrogs Most of the Democratic Field (Original Post) comradebillyboy Dec 2018 OP
Kamala/Beto 2020 is a winning ticket. sarcasmo Dec 2018 #1
That's my pick at the moment too. comradebillyboy Dec 2018 #4
Not until and unless she explains her stand on Civil forfeiture question everything Dec 2018 #33
A Harris/O'Rourke or O'Rouke/Harris ticket is a winning ticket for us. LonePirate Dec 2018 #2
Joe Biden 2020 ! stonecutter357 Dec 2018 #3
Beto O'Rourke didn't have special results Eric J in MN Dec 2018 #5
Keep telling yourself that BannonsLiver Dec 2018 #7
Big differences NewJeffCT Dec 2018 #8
I love Beto & would be thrilled w/his nomination, but you're sort of cooking the books here Bucky Dec 2018 #17
OK NewJeffCT Dec 2018 #38
Seems like some are trying to discredit the appeal of O'Rourke in favor of...................? George II Dec 2018 #22
Yep Gothmog Dec 2018 #23
#6 George II Dec 2018 #25
OK Renew Deal Dec 2018 #11
Measured by small donations, he did amazing. Definitely a high water mark for a Democrat in Texas Bucky Dec 2018 #13
I'd allege the same if my sacred cow didn't come out on top either. LanternWaste Dec 2018 #18
Is that the way to judge how a SENATE candidate does vs. a presidential election two years earlier? George II Dec 2018 #21
Except that O'Rourke pulled in TONS of money. Adrahil Dec 2018 #42
Well, there we have it. KPN Dec 2018 #6
From that list, I think this is the group most likely to be the nominee Renew Deal Dec 2018 #9
I think the nominee will be either Tom Steyer or Beto O'Rourke. StevieM Dec 2018 #12
Help me out. What's your concern with Klobuchar? Bucky Dec 2018 #15
It's interesting that nobody even bothers to ask why a poster would feel that way about Gillibrand. StevieM Dec 2018 #19
Don't read too much into that Bucky Dec 2018 #26
I think you mis-read my post. It is Amy Klobuchar who is co-sponsoring a bill with Roy Blunt, StevieM Dec 2018 #28
I doubt she'll get the nomination Bucky Dec 2018 #30
I will vote for whoever the nominee is. StevieM Dec 2018 #37
How many people do you think really care about that? Renew Deal Dec 2018 #34
I know of one vote who cares about it. Me. StevieM Dec 2018 #36
Harris has a better chance than all 5 of those folks, I'd say. Garrett78 Dec 2018 #40
When the race starts they won't be able to ignore Tom Steyer for much longer. (eom) StevieM Dec 2018 #10
Not sure a hedge fund manager, however liberal, will have the experience to lead Bucky Dec 2018 #27
Well, everyone will have to vote for the candidate they like the most. StevieM Dec 2018 #29
I'll take the top two MrScorpio Dec 2018 #14
You chose well.... Bucky Dec 2018 #16
Why should we give any weight to CNN's opinion? DavidDvorkin Dec 2018 #20
In December 2006 Trumpocalypse Dec 2018 #24
How about 2004? Renew Deal Dec 2018 #35
LOL! Trumpocalypse Dec 2018 #39
Hello again, Chris Cillizza Yosemito Dec 2018 #31
Beto/Amy K...Joe Biden sec of state SoCalDem Dec 2018 #32
Better get a cloning lab first DFW Dec 2018 #43
That happened to a friend of mine a while ago DFW Dec 2018 #41
It's cute how some continue to think Sanders could get nominated. Garrett78 Dec 2018 #44

question everything

(47,479 posts)
33. Not until and unless she explains her stand on Civil forfeiture
Thu Dec 13, 2018, 03:42 PM
Dec 2018

that she supported while being CA AG.

Sessions did, too.

Eric J in MN

(35,619 posts)
5. Beto O'Rourke didn't have special results
Thu Dec 13, 2018, 01:16 PM
Dec 2018

...as a US Senate candidate.

This year, Jane Raybould (D-NE) and Beto O'Rourke (D-TX) each faced Republicans first elected to the US Senate in 2012. Each Democrat lost, while getting 5% points more than Hillary Clinton got in their states 2016.

O'Rourke's result wasn't special.

NewJeffCT

(56,828 posts)
8. Big differences
Thu Dec 13, 2018, 01:39 PM
Dec 2018

In 2012, Deb Fischer won her seat in Nebraska by over 15 points, 57.8% to 42.2%. In 2018, she won by over 20 points, 58.75% to 38.3%. Jane Raybould received 4 points less than Bob Kerrey in 2012. (42% vs 38%). So, with the incumbency, Fischer improved by almost 5 points overall.

In 2012, Ted Cruz won his seat by 16 points, 56% to 40%.
In 2018, Ted Cruz won his seat by 2.6%, 50.9% to 48.3%, an improvement of 13.4%
Despite the incumbency, Cruz lost over 13 points off of his win.

O'Rourke raised huge funds that were all from small donors and forced the national Republican party to divert funds from other races to save Cruz, possibly helping Tester to win in Montana and Sinema in Arizona. Additionally, Democrats made good pickups in local races in Texas - all those judgeships in Houston made national news, plus Democrats made gains in both legislative houses in Texas. The Nebraska race was never competitive, so the national Republicans did not need to divert money to the state to help her out.

Bucky

(54,013 posts)
17. I love Beto & would be thrilled w/his nomination, but you're sort of cooking the books here
Thu Dec 13, 2018, 02:00 PM
Dec 2018

His improvement was by 8%, not 13%. The gap stat is a derivative sum, not an objective measure of support. He did good, but we don't have to rubberize the numbers to recognize his talent.

NewJeffCT

(56,828 posts)
38. OK
Thu Dec 13, 2018, 04:18 PM
Dec 2018

he improved 8% over the previous Democrat in the race, but Cruz losing 5% maybe doesn't happen with another candidate?

He also spent a lot of money on GOTV that is at least partly credited with helping Dems in other state races there as well.

Bucky

(54,013 posts)
13. Measured by small donations, he did amazing. Definitely a high water mark for a Democrat in Texas
Thu Dec 13, 2018, 01:50 PM
Dec 2018

Anyway, if people are charged up by the guy, he's a leader. That's what it takes to govern, not a stretch in Congress (which he's also done, by the by)

George II

(67,782 posts)
21. Is that the way to judge how a SENATE candidate does vs. a presidential election two years earlier?
Thu Dec 13, 2018, 02:19 PM
Dec 2018

First, I don't see how a Senate election in Nebraska (where about 1/10 of the Texas votes were cast) is relevant to the Texas results, but whatever:

O'Rourke lost 4,260,553 to 4,045,632; Clinton lost 4,685,047 to 3,877,868 (turnout this year was almost as high as the PRESIDENTIAL turnout, which is historically very high)

For what it's worth, Raybould lost 403,151 to 269,917; Clinton lost 498,961 to 284,498

During the last Senate election in Texas (2014) Cornyn won 2,855,068 to 1,594,252. O'Rourke got almost as many votes this year by himself than ALL candidates combined got in the last Texas Senate election.

Seems you're stretching quite a bit to throw shade on O'Rourke's remarkable campaign this year.

 

Adrahil

(13,340 posts)
42. Except that O'Rourke pulled in TONS of money.
Thu Dec 13, 2018, 07:34 PM
Dec 2018

That matters. He has that "it" factor that can MAKE a President.

Renew Deal

(81,859 posts)
9. From that list, I think this is the group most likely to be the nominee
Thu Dec 13, 2018, 01:42 PM
Dec 2018

Not in order

O'Rourke
Biden
Klobuchar
Brown
Gillibrand

I don't think the rest of them have a serious chance to win the nomination.

StevieM

(10,500 posts)
12. I think the nominee will be either Tom Steyer or Beto O'Rourke.
Thu Dec 13, 2018, 01:44 PM
Dec 2018

I desperately hope we don't nominate Amy Klobuchar or Kirsten Gillibrand.

Bucky

(54,013 posts)
15. Help me out. What's your concern with Klobuchar?
Thu Dec 13, 2018, 01:52 PM
Dec 2018

Please note: I'm not using the word "concern" sarcastically (which may be a first in DU ).

StevieM

(10,500 posts)
19. It's interesting that nobody even bothers to ask why a poster would feel that way about Gillibrand.
Thu Dec 13, 2018, 02:16 PM
Dec 2018

I guess it goes without saying.

As for Klobuchar, she is supporting a bill with Roy Blunt that would link the foreign aid we give to other countries to their willingness to open up to American adoptions. I think that is a terrible idea.

Bucky

(54,013 posts)
26. Don't read too much into that
Thu Dec 13, 2018, 03:12 PM
Dec 2018

I've asked questions about Gillibrand in the past. At this point, the reason I quit asking about her was that she's not a terribly dynamic or passionate advocate for her views. She's the most reliably anti-Trump voter in the Senate, so insinuations that she's close to Roy Blunt politically aren't terribly substantive. I don't think most people will be bothered by the idea that a candidate knows how to work across party lines.

We need a nominee who's more than just ideologically consistent and personally ambitious, however. We need a leader who inspires people and turns out crowds and generates passion among average voters. That's why Beto jumped to the top of this (entirely subjective and meaningless) top ten list. His record for drawing small donations is impressive, he draws commitment from people. I'm not sold on him yet, but he continues to impress me.

StevieM

(10,500 posts)
28. I think you mis-read my post. It is Amy Klobuchar who is co-sponsoring a bill with Roy Blunt,
Thu Dec 13, 2018, 03:23 PM
Dec 2018

not Kirsten Gillibrand. And I am not insinuating that she is close to Blunt politically. I am saying that I am angered by the legislation she is proposing and it has cost her any chance of ever getting my vote.

I agree that Beto is impressive and he has a great shot of winning the nomination. But I think Tom Steyer will surprise a lot of people.

Bucky

(54,013 posts)
30. I doubt she'll get the nomination
Thu Dec 13, 2018, 03:28 PM
Dec 2018

but if she does, I'm pretty sure you'll vote for her.

I'll keep an eyeball out for Steyer. Thanks for the head's up

StevieM

(10,500 posts)
37. I will vote for whoever the nominee is.
Thu Dec 13, 2018, 04:16 PM
Dec 2018

I meant that I would never support her in a Democratic primary.

StevieM

(10,500 posts)
36. I know of one vote who cares about it. Me.
Thu Dec 13, 2018, 04:15 PM
Dec 2018

I didn't say that her position would cost her the nomination. I said it had cost her my vote.

Bucky

(54,013 posts)
27. Not sure a hedge fund manager, however liberal, will have the experience to lead
Thu Dec 13, 2018, 03:20 PM
Dec 2018

Having great ideas is important. But Steyer will have to deal with the impression that he's trying to buy his way into the nomination. If we lacked real leadership and ideas in the party, that sort of personal commit would be impressive. I think we got a deep enough bench this time around that we don't need the hail Mary.

StevieM

(10,500 posts)
29. Well, everyone will have to vote for the candidate they like the most.
Thu Dec 13, 2018, 03:25 PM
Dec 2018

Tom Steyer has a great record of environmental advocacy and has led the charge to impeach Donald Trump. Those two things put him way up on my list.

 

Trumpocalypse

(6,143 posts)
24. In December 2006
Thu Dec 13, 2018, 02:43 PM
Dec 2018

Hilary Clinton and Rudy Guliani were at the top of the polls to secure their party's nominations in 08.

How did that work out?

SoCalDem

(103,856 posts)
32. Beto/Amy K...Joe Biden sec of state
Thu Dec 13, 2018, 03:39 PM
Dec 2018

Joe is necessary to cleanup our international image..

Perhaps Sherrod Brown for sec of labor
Warren for Treasury
Harris for atty general..

Brown would be the only scary one to nominate since Ohio is a sketchy place these days..

DFW

(54,380 posts)
43. Better get a cloning lab first
Thu Dec 13, 2018, 07:34 PM
Dec 2018

I wouldn't want to rid the Senate of Brown, Warren and Harris with the likelihood of Republican replacements for Warren and Brown. Obama played that card with Kansas governor Sibelius in 2009 with disastrous results for Kansas when she left to join his Cabinet.

DFW

(54,380 posts)
41. That happened to a friend of mine a while ago
Thu Dec 13, 2018, 07:30 PM
Dec 2018

It was the same for him--a brief few months in the national limelight, which soon got extinguished. He still went on to do great things, but he never sought elective public office again.

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