Russian Bear stops Finland leaving euro

“Membership of the EU and the euro is all about getting as far away as possible from Moscow. That has affected how we think for the past 20 years,” said Professor Tapio Ravisio from Tampere University. The strategic imperative is to enmesh Finland as deeply as possible into every part of the Western system.

True Finn leader Mr Soini says the euro remains the “state religion” upheld by Finland’s elites. Their governing credibility is inextricably linked to EMU project. Most will die in a ditch to defend it.

Yet the tensions are palpable in the Finnish parliament. “Our liabilities keep rising and the mood is becoming critical,” said the foreign minister.

Each escalation in EU rescue demands - whether to strip the bail-out fund (ESM) of its preferred creditor status, or to recapitalise Spanish banks directly, or to buy Spanish and Italian debt, and on what terms - requires a fresh vote by the Eduskunta.

The Social Democrats - leaking working class votes to the True Finns - are visibly wobbling. Their ministers fire off cannonades against EU rescues almost weekly to shore up their base. The finance minister Jutta Urpilained said Finland would not “hold onto the euro” at any cost, and then seem surprised when the world took note.

Nobody knows where the snapping point lies. Miapetra Kumpula-Natri, chair of the Grand Committee on Europe, said Finland’s political limit on bail-outs is “unwritten”, yet dropped the hint of 10pc of GDP. So we watch the numbers. Does the gun cock once Finland’s guarantees reach €19bn? Are we there already?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/9485917/Russian-Bear-stops-Finland-leaving-euro.html