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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsLynneSin's prediction for the GOP primary winner - it'll be Ron Paul
First, 25% vote for Mitt Romney which means that 75% didn't vote for him. The Tea Party can't stand him and are trying desparately to find the perfect candidate out of the remaining GOP candidates.
It's been interesting to watch this race because in a nutshell each GOP candidate enjoyed a surge. The only reason Dick Santorum did so well yesterday is because he didn't have enough time from when Newt tanked his campaign for Dick to tank his.
I mean have you seen this trend with the GOP candidates. Each one had their turn at the top and then proved to be so unstable, unreliable, uncredible and in general bat-shit crazy that each of those GOP ultimately tanked their own campaigns. And Tea Party voters are so desparate to endorse one of their own that they test drove each of those candidates really trying their best to make them the candidate win over Mitt but in the end each of those 'Not Mitt' GOP candidates (outside of Paul) shot themselves in the foot.
Michelle Bachmann surged first but ultimately she just came across as bat-shit crazy and even the Tea Party voters realized that she could never even come close to beating Obama. Fortunately Rick Perry jumped into the race and the Tea Party thought they had another winning Texas Governor but Perry proved that he was dumber than a pile of rocks - so dumb he made George Bush look like a smart man. Next Cain surged and the Tea Party tried to overcome their racist tendencies but it wasn't skin color that tanked Cain but the fact that he's the new gropinator. So next the Tea Party clung to Newt, but there was definately enough time to for Newt to tank his campaign, which he promptly did leaving just Rick Santorum and Ron Paul left.
Ron Paul is a different kind of candidate - one that isn't afraid to show his racist, sexist, homophobic side - at least the other candidates tried to hide those tendencies. Sure Santorum did well yesterday but the guy is just too nutty and he'll be sinking by the time Super Tuesday comes around which means the Tea Party will have 2 choices - embrace the guy who opening speaks out against civil rights and womens rights or hold their nose and vote for Mitt.
I think it'll be Paul.
And Paul, as appealing as he has been to some fringe liberals - ultimately the voters will realize what an asshole he is and Obama will win easily in 2012.
Mitt is the only candidate I believe that could give Obama a run for the money but fortunately for us he's the one candidate that the Tea Party faithfuls can't stand.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Absolutely none.
FarLeftFist
(6,161 posts)hlthe2b
(102,292 posts)They will NEVER let them nominate him. Never.
TomClash
(11,344 posts)Never.
And even if they did somehow, his racist statements and associations are a killer.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)they thought they actually were going to win in Iowa. And if they can't win there in a caucus state it's hard to see where he can win. I hope he continues the race, though--which he will.
MilesColtrane
(18,678 posts)He won't win the GOP nomination.
LynneSin
(95,337 posts)And Santorum is going to tank his campaign like Newt, Cain, Perry and Bachmann before him.
I can't see the Tea Party going for Mitt - they are apalled by him.
MilesColtrane
(18,678 posts)the last time he ran there.
Santorum will tank because there aren't enough southern states with social conservatives on the primary schedule early on.
If they both fold, voters will turn to Gingrich before they'd ever vote for Paul.
warrior1
(12,325 posts)LynneSin
(95,337 posts)Because he's a dickhead
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)I actually tend to agree with you LynnSin....Perry maybe should have stuck it out
a couple days to see if Michelle dropped out.
If Paul is to win though, he has got to mollify his rhetoric. I actually noticed his son was trying to do that this week.
I truly think if he had some focus groups cringe at the over-the-top stuff he says and he toned it down a notch..he'd be further along.
For instance, instead of saying "Let Iran have a nuke, who cares." Say, "We need to fully analyze the impacts of them having a nuke before we just bomb and kill people."
think
(11,641 posts)Ron Paul supporters actually created the Tea Party in 2007. The supporters came up with the idea to have one day where everyone sent in donations and call it a money bomb. It was hugely successful and the Tea Party was born.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2007-12-17-ronpaul-fundraising_N.htm
Of course this did not go unnoticed by people like Dick Armey: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dick_Armey,
Dick Armey is a seasoned Republican and lobbyist who used a non profit organization, Freedom works, as a front to promote issues that were positive to the corporations he lobbied for.
http://sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=FreedomWorks
The Koch brothers also saw the opportunity to hijack the movement for their non profit front group Americans for Prosperity. They used the title Tea Party Express and this is this where the most outlandish bullshit came from.
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Koch_Industries
So the Tea Party most Americans are familiar with is the Tea Party Express hijacked by Freedom Works and Americans for Prosperity.
Ron Paul has never openly supported this hijacked version of the Tea Party but he's never disavowed it or exposed it's takeover by Koch Industries and Dick Armey.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)think
(11,641 posts)blindpig
(11,292 posts)While they no doubt love his free market babbling his isolationism is anathema to the capitalist class which largely relies on imperialism to prop up thier rotten racket.
LynneSin
(95,337 posts)but ultimately it was the voters who made their voices here and the Tea Party put a nutjob on the ballot instead of the sure win (Mike Castle).
Chris Coons won in a landslide
blindpig
(11,292 posts)as it always does. The Republican establishment would rather see Obama repeat(he's given them much of their heart's desire) than have the imperial apparatus dismantled, or even have that considered, not that I think that Paul could actually accomplish much in that regard, the legislative and beaurocratic opposition would be great.
Gotta give those conservative voters a little credit, they will stand by their convictions, no matter how bad. When a sitting republican govorner dissed the rebel rag in SC they stayed home in large numbers permitting a lame ass Democrat to win.
In the meantime that establishment will wheel out the heavy guns of money and endorsements to shore up their man. It's gonna be like Kerry for the Dems in '04. Or mebbe it will be like 1856 for the Whigs....
LynneSin
(95,337 posts)Better to focus on keeping the House & Senate.
If the GOP establishment really wanted to win 2012 they would have put a stronger candidate in the race that would have kept the Tea Party happy without shooting themselves in the foot.
It's Bob Dole all over again.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)think
(11,641 posts)the economy starts to tank again soon. Then Mittens could be a threat. Mittens is scum sucking lying politician but the rest are just plumb fucking nuts and everyone knows it.
Any donations and volunteer work will be aimed at helping progressive Democrats get in or stay in office.
http://www.pdamerica.org/
onenote
(42,714 posts)The fact that 3/4 of the Iowa repubs didn't back Romney proves next to nothing in terms of the ultimate selection of a nominee. McCain did even worse in Iowa in 2008 -- 13 percent and a fourth place finish. Unless he stumbles, Mitt will handily win New Hampshire (maybe not by the 2-1 margin he's been polling at but in all likelihood by double digits). The next primary after that, in South Carolina, doesn't take place for 11 days, which means that there will an extended period during which Mitt will be reported as the frontrunner and the pressure will be on Gingrich, Paul, or Santorum to step up and become a credible challenger. If Mitt can improve on his 2008 SC showing (15 percent) to at 20 percent, he will continue to wear the front runner's mantle going into Florida. If he manages to capture 25 percent or more, he will be annointed as the nominee.
Cognitive_Resonance
(1,546 posts)his ceiling is hard. Very few Republicans outside his cult following will accept him as an alternative to Romney. Gingrich was always the candidate with best prospects for derailing Romney, but his ego and political baggage quickly proved insurmountable. Santorum is now the last viable NotRomney.
LibDemAlways
(15,139 posts)a "win" in Iowa last night so it could be reported that way. He'll throw a bone to the religious extremists by putting some batshit crazy loon on the ticket as VP, just like McCain did - and the outcome will be the same. If anything, I can see Ron Paul making a 3rd party run and taking his supporters with him.
TBF
(32,064 posts)I think they will solidify their money behind Romney now. The rest will be jockeying to be VP ...