Difficult to imagine that she won't be among the final three.
However, we don't have much wiggle room against an incumbent. I realize that sounds preposterous now, with Trump below 40% approval. But I never care about today as opposed to the big picture. Incumbents have enormous advantages to begin with, and Trump will lie and cheat and manipulate to expand those advantages exponentially. Anyone who thinks this is a stroll to inauguration day is frankly a moron.
Hillary Clinton is ultra elite. She could out think and out argue anyone in debate. I'm not convinced Kamala Harris is anywhere near that level. Democrats cannot afford one serious mistake on a long campaign trail, while Trump can get away with virtually anything.
Kamala Harris may be below Hillary level but that doesn't matter since perception is everything. If Kamala proves likable enough and competent enough to withstand the Trump/PAC attacks, then she can get through it, and we'll win if Trump approval level remains let's say 42% or lower as judged by 538 compilation. Logically the election day exit poll number on Trump approval will be at least 3% above the 538 number. That's why we can't afford for Trump to get to 45% or anything close to that on 538 by November 2020.
I prefer Beto or Klobuchar but I'll give Harris a chance in the primaries. Her personality is still a bit of an unknown to me. I am not going to stray from my decades-old belief that it takes charisma to oust an incumbent. Last thing we need is a prosecutorial type with a mean streak. She wouldn't be able to hide that from the swing voters, and Trump would mock it relentlessly.
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